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July
16th
2002
Out of the Frying Pan
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Rodriguez Who's in the Bullpen

by Jessica Polko

Minnesota hasn't had the injury problems of Texas, but they've had some difficulty keeping pitchers healthy this year. Jose Rodriguez is the latest Twin to head to the DL. The team placed him on the disabled list Sunday with an inflamed left elbow. He went to the hospital because his forearm began to swell and was kept overnight with a blockage in a vein his upper arm. Tests revealed that one of the smaller veins in his forearm is swollen, but he should be able to begin a rehab assignment soon.

Rodriguez signed with the Twins in mid-June after spending the first part of the season with Cardinals. I've been unable to discover the transaction that freed him from St. Louis. The Twins called Rodriguez up when they placed Matt Kinney on the disabled list at the end of June due to a sore right shoulder. Kinney's progressing well in his recovery and begins a rehab assignment his week.

Kevin Frederick replaced Rodriguez on the roster this weekend. Frederick was drafted twice by the Twins, in the 17th round of the 1997 draft, and then again in the 34th round in 1998 after he failed to sign in 1997. He was a top offensive player at Creighton University, but Minnesota chose to develop him as a relief pitcher. Then shortly after he signed, Frederick underwent surgery to repair a detached labrum, causing him to miss most of the 1999 season.

Once healthy in 2000, he split the year between the A Midwest League and A+ Florida State League, demonstrating quality skills at both levels. He returned to A+ to begin last season but was quickly promoted to AA where he had a 109:28 K:BB in 83 IP with only 56 H and 5 H. His AA performance inspired the Twins to send him to the Arizona Fall League, where he continued to perform admirably while most pitchers struggled. Minnesota promoted him to AAA Edmonton in the Pacific Coast League to start this season. The 25-year-old righty hasn't dominated the offense-heavy PCL but was able to post a 41:19 K:BB in 45.2 IP with 55 H and 7 HR allowed.

Minnesota placed both Bob Wells and Jack Cressend on the DL in the first half of June. Wells was suffering from a sore elbow and later had surgery to remove bone chips from his elbow. He began a rehab assignment yesterday and could return to the Twins as soon as next week.

Travis Miller originally replaced Wells on the roster but was released in late June to make room for Juan Rincon, who replaced Kinney in the rotation. Miller has since signed a minor league contract with the Cubs.

Cressend's DL trip was due to a strained rotator cuff, but he too has progressed far enough in his recovery to begin a rehab assignment this week. The Twins called up Matt LeCroy to replace Cressend on the roster. LeCroy's production, along with that of Dustan Mohr, largely contributed to Minnesota moving Brian Buchanan earlier this week.

The Twins are currently carrying 14 position players and 11 pitchers. While it's possible that they could return Michael Cuddyer to the minors in order to activate another pitcher, I find it unlikely that they would have promoted him only to send him down after a short time in the majors. None of the other position players on the team seem any more likely to be demoted, and I don't think they're inclined to trade away offense as they want to insure a division championship.

Consequently, not all of these pitchers will be activated when they are healthy and a few tough decisions will have to be made regarding those pitchers on the roster. Provided they remain healthy, Eric Milton, Rick Reed, Eddie Guardado, J.C. Romero, Mike Jackson, and LaTroy Hawkins should all have secure roster spots. Even with two sub-par outings in the last couple weeks, Tony Fiore has performed excellently for the Twins this season, so he shouldn't be demoted.

Aside from those players already discussed, Joe Mays and Brad Radke will also soon be ready to return from the disabled list. Mays, who went on the DL in mid-April with elbow problems, is expected to be the first of the Twins' pitchers to return and should be activated Saturday.

At that time, I expect the team will likely return Frederick to the minors as he's the most recent addition to the roster. Given the recent performances of Rincon, Kyle Lohse, and Johan Santana, I believe Mays will take Rincon's place in the rotation. Rincon's both the most recent addition to the rotation and the least effective of the three pitchers.

Presuming his rehab assignment goes smoothly, Wells should be ready to rejoin the team around July 22nd. He was the worst reliever on the Twins prior to his injury, but his veteran status and contract mean he'll be activated. Minnesota will need to demote Rincon to make room for Wells on the roster. Although Cressend should also be ready to return at that time, there's no longer room for him in the pen, so he will be sent to AAA at the end of his rehab assignment.

After a premature return from his first DL trip, Radke has been slowly rehabbing his pulled groin. The Twins want him to make at least two more rehab starts before he rejoins the team, but baring setbacks he should be ready to re-enter the rotation around July 29th.

Minnesota will face a tough decision at that time as to whether to demote Johan Santana or Kyle Lohse. Lohse has made 19 starts compared to Santana's 7. However, Santana has pitched much better than Lohse over his starts, only twice allowing more than one run, whereas Lohse only allowed more than one run in all but three of his starts.

Lohse has pitched deeper into games, but while Santana has allowed 1 HR in 15 IP, Lohse has allowed 14 HR in 104.2 IP. Santana's been more dominant with 11 K/9 compared to Lohse's 6 K/9. Lohse's only advantage over Santana is in BB/9 and Santana compensates by allowing fewer H/9. When you factor in that Santana is a left-hander and Lohse is a righty, the decision seems very clear as you prefer to have 3 RHP and 2 LHP rather than 4 RHP and 1 LHP in the rotation.

Therefore unless Santana completely falls apart in the next two weeks (his last start was his worst of the year), Lohse should be demoted when Radke returns from the DL. There will not be room on the roster for either Matt Kinney or Jose Rodriguez when they recover from their injuries, so they will likely both be sent to AAA.

Click here to read the previous article.

I can't please all the people all of the time, but I am more than willing to read the comments of the pleased, the irate, and everyone in between. You can send your opinions to jess@rotohelp.com.
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