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July
6th
2002
Out of the Frying Pan
Rotohelp
Lilly of the Bay

by Jessica Polko

The Yankees entered the trade market again early today, sweeping in to grab RHP Jeff Weaver in a three-way trade with the Tigers and the A's. Oakland traded 1B Carlos Pena, RHP Franklyn German, and a PTBNL to Detroit for Weaver and cash, and then traded Weaver to New York for LHP Ted Lilly, RHP Jason Arnold, and OF John-Ford Griffin.

The choice of Robert Fick over Jeff Weaver as Detroit's All-Star was considered a poor decision by most observers, but maybe someone whispered in Joe Torre's ear that if he chose Weaver, he might have another Yankee and no Tigers. If that's true than choosing Fick becomes much more understandable, especially with closer Juan Acevedo's slump just before the final roster decisions.

Overall the trade seems fairly balanced with each team receiving value in return for their players, but there remain some questions due to the quantity and quality of talent traded away by New York and Oakland.

If the Yankees were going to trade Lilly this season, now was the right time to deal him. Torre faced the prospect of choosing a 5-man rotation from six starters and Lilly seemed headed for the pen after the All-Star break, which might have marginally decreased his perceived trade value.

Lilly was born and lives in California, so he should be pleased with the trade as it keeps him on a contender. He should join the Athletics' rotation after the All-Star break. Many suspected Cory Lidle would exit Oakland before the trading deadline as the odd man out of the rotation. This trade emphasized the likelihood of a deal involving Lidle, as it's improbable that the A's would instead demote the younger, less expensive, and equally efficient Aaron Harang.

One wonders why the Yankees would need to upgrade starters if they're having trouble choosing a rotation due to a surplus of candidates, but despite high-profile names, New York's rotation has been plagued by large and small injuries as well as some ineffectiveness. Weaver allows them to solidify one fifth of their rotation whereas Lilly was viewed as a question mark.

Weaver's actually 8 months younger than Lilly, but Lilly is still two seasons away from arbitration under the current labor structure, whereas Detroit gave Weaver a 4-year $22M contract this off-season to buy out his arbitration years and one year of his free agency. The Yankees can certainly afford the price tag and are acquiring a young player in his prime instead of a middle-aged star on the downside of their career.

However, considering the prospects New York had to add to Lilly, Weaver came at price higher than just money. Weaver's also had a heavy workload the last few years and could suffer from that abuse in the future, though his arm should receive a break with the Yankee pitching depth in both the rotation and bullpen. Additionally, I am concerned that Weaver may have troubles with lefty-friendly Yankee Stadium as he's struggled against left-handed batters in the past. While he only has a .010 OPS split in favor of righties this season, from 1999-2001 lefties compiled an .843 OPS against Weaver with righties limited to a .671 OPS.

In the midst of a rebuilding process, the Tigers had little reason to hold onto a high-priced Weaver with no guarantee that he would even be healthy when they were ready to compete again. Detroit received at least two and likely three high-upside prospects for Weaver from Oakland, so the only question on their end is if they would have been better off leaving the A's out of the deal and trading for the Yankee prospects. Considering the Tiger's player development track record, they're better off with the more advanced Oakland prospects than the Yankee youngsters, as they'll have less opportunity to stunt their growth (even though John-Ford does seem to belong in Motor City).

John-Ford Griffin was the Yankees' first round pick out of Florida State University last season. He signed quickly and was assigned to the short-season New York-Pennsylvania League where he displayed excellent plate discipline with both power and speed potential. The 22-year-old outfielder began this season at A+ Tampa in the Florida State League and hit .255 with a .344 OBP and .373 SLG in 255 AB on 68 H, 16 2B, 1 3B, and 3 HR with a 29:49 BB:K and 1/1 SB%. New York then jumped him to AA Norwich in the Eastern League (likely in order to increase his perceived trade value), where he had 22 H, 3 2B, and 5 HR with an 8:13 BB:K and 0/1 SB% in 67 AB before the trade for a .328 BA, .400 OBP, and .597 SLG.

I'm concerned with the waffle in his A+ plate discipline and also a bit worried that he's being rushed. However the A's are the right organization to help him solidify his strike zone judgment, and he should be alright as long as they leave him AA for the rest of this season and give him a full year at AAA before calling him up.

The Yankees drafted Jason Arnold out of the University of Central Florid one round after Griffin last season. Arnold's followed the same development as Griffin: the NY-Penn League after signing and then Tampa and Norwich this season, displaying excellent skills at every level. Before his promotion to AA, he compiled an 83:22 K:BB in 80 IP at A+ with only 64 H and 2 HR allowed.

Some prospect watchers are concerned about his future health because his delivery, while effective, isn't very smooth and he suffered from elbow tendinitis last season. However, other than potential health problems there appears to be little standing between him and a successful major league career. Arnold may even be ready for a September call-up in 2003 if he succeeds in AAA next season.

You should be familiar with Carlos Pena following the trade that brought him from Texas to Oakland this spring. He broke camp with the A's and in the first week defied his normal pattern of starting slowly at a new level by hitting four home runs and posting a 1.102 OPS through 26 at-bats. Pena cooled off in the second week of the season but heated up in week three to finish April with a .264 BA, .323 OBP, and .552 SLG in 87 AB on 23 H, 4 2B, and 7 HR with a 7:27 BB:K. Unfortunately, the A's weren't willing to wait out his adjustment to the league and sent him down in mid-May after a prolonged slump.

He didn't respond well to the demotion and was only hitting .240 in AAA at the time of the trade with a .338 OBP and .485 SLG in 171 AB on 41 H, 10 2B, 1 3B, and 10 HR with a 23:48 BB:K and 3/3 SB%. His diminishing strike zone judgment and the fact that the Athletics, a team that highly values plate discipline, traded him are cause for concern. Nevertheless, his upside remains high. He may flourish in Detroit as they have no reason not to play him the majors where he can receive the necessary at-bats to adjust to the new level of competition and continue his development.

Pena's presence conflicts with that of Eric Munson, who Detroit selected third overall in the 1999 draft. Munson, originally a catcher who the Tigers converted into a first baseman, signed a major league contract with Detroit and therefore will have to pass through waivers if he's not on the major league roster next season. As a result the Tigers have attempted to rush him through the minors, but he hasn't responded well. While he walks a good number of times and has good power, his strikeouts are though the roof. This season at AAA Toledo, he's hitting .231 with a .349 OBP and .497 SLG in 286 AB on 66 H, 15 2B, 2 3B, and 19 HR with a 47:78 BB:K and 0/1 SB%. Detroit should try to trade him this season, as there's little room for him on their major league team and he'll be expensive.

Franklyn German signed with Oakland as a free agent out of the Dominican Republic in 1996. The 22-year-old right-hander began his professional career as a starter, but the A's moved him to relief in 2000. German responded well to the move, increasing his skill level across the board. This season at the highly hitter-friendly ballpark at Midland in the Pacific Coast League, German has a 59:27 K:BB in 41.1 IP with 28 H and no home runs allowed. He should develop into a quality setup man and potential closer for the Tigers.

The player to be named late could be one of any number of players. Due to comments made by Detroit GM Dave Dombrowski, we have reason to believe that the PTBNL is someone drafted last season, who isn't yet eligible to be traded as it hasn't yet been a year since they signed. However, we do know that the mystery man is considered a good prospect, and even if the Tigers simply chose by throwing stones in the A's minor leagues, they'll likely hit a talented player with good upside, hopefully not bruising him in the process.

I disapproved of Detroit signing Weaver to his multi-year contract, but it likely added to his trade value. They're a considerable ways away from fielding a playoff team, but this is a step in the right direction.

Oakland's stockpiling high-quality young (and therefore inexpensive) starting pitchers, perhaps at the cost of a well-balanced offense. However, those pitchers can be traded for position players. While Pena's upside is considerable, the Athletics replaced him with equally promising talent at scarcer positions.

New York doesn't need many prospects except as fuel for these kinds of trades. They've established a winning formula and until they have a season of ill-timed off-years and injuries, they'll continue to make the playoffs with a good chance at winning the Series.

I'll cover the changes in the Cubs on-field and front office management tomorrow.

Click here to read the previous article.

I can't please all the people all of the time, but I am more than willing to read the comments of the pleased, the irate, and everyone in between. You can send your opinions to jess@rotohelp.com.
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