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June
9th
2002
Out of the Frying Pan
Rotohelp
E - Baylor

by Jess and Tim Polko

Written during Friday night's Cubs/Seattle game: We started counting Mark Prior's pitches at 100. All reports indicate that he's on a fairly hard 110 pitch cap, so we were completely shocked when Baylor sent him back out for the 7th inning with a 1-0 lead after he'd thrown 111 pitches. He then needed five pitches to get past Ruben Sierra and four pitches for Desi Relaford. What in the world is Baylor thinking? Prior's at 120 right now. There's 121 and 122 to Dan Wilson, and this is a perfect situation to bring in Farnsworth or even the recently activated Carlos Zambrano. Pitch 123 was a strike, leaving the count at 1-2. Pitch 124 was his 11th strikeout, and WE HAVE HAD IT WITH DON BAYLOR.

Prior's line: 11:1 K:BB in 7 IP with 4 H, 0 HR, and a 4-5 G-F; 86/124 pitches were strikes.

Looking back at the game, Prior had thrown about 95 pitches when he went out for the 6th, and though we might have pulled him, he was still below his cap and the bullpen could really benefit from the extra inning by the starter. However, there was no reason to risk his arm after the sixth. Studies have shown that just throwing those couple of extra pitches really does hurt pitchers. We don't care that he had struck out the last two batters in the inning, and we don't care that he continued to mow down the batters one at a time in the 7th so that he struck out the last five batters of the game. Actually maybe we do care because if he could get the hitters out with one or two pitches on fly balls or grounders, he wouldn't have found himself in such a pitch count predicament.

We've been making excuses for Baylor since the end of last year. We agreed with firing Oscar Acosta for insubordination and sheer incompetence, including calling pitchers wimps for seeking medical attention. While we recognize Acosta improved the pitching staff here and is turning around Texas, he really has no business associating with any young pitcher; no one who risks the health of young pitchers should remain in a position of responsibility over them.

The problem has been that while we continue to hear occasional quotes from Baylor that say almost exactly what we want to hear, it seems as though he frequently forgets everything he seems to know in an interview when he steps out of the clubhouse. Perhaps Baylor really belongs in some front office, as he appears to grasp the importance of several key concepts such as on-base percentage but is unable to apply that knowledge to game situations and lineups.

For this reason, we wanted to direct you to firedonbaylor.com, but the site's likely closed until July since they've used all their bandwidth due to the great response. The Cubs' goal should be to win a World Series before Sammy retires, and we'll need players like Patterson, Hill, and Hee Seop Choi starting with Sosa on that team. Similarly, Prior and Juan Cruz will be in the starting rotation, but we wouldn't mind losing Jon Lieber or even Kerry Wood; those veterans, along with Jeff Fassero and Jason Bere, have polarized the clubhouse between hitters and pitchers. Wood's arm remains a risk, and Leiber isn't as dominant as anyone else in the rotation, so perhaps the Cubs should consider dealing Kid K to Texas if we can pick him someone like (we know we're dreaming but how about) Hank Blalock. Texas would take the trade, and we'd add the best young hitter in the game for a perennial injury risk. Knowing John Hart, we could probably also receive a rookie pitcher like Colby Lewis if Andy MacPhail said "please".

The only person on the coaching staff who needs to remain is Jeff Pentland. Some short-sighted and likely near-sighted Chicago columnists started calling for his ouster, but anyone who can turn a free-swinger like the pre-1998 Sammy Sosa into one of the best right fielders ever deserves a long contract extension. Pentland was hired in July of 1997, and also appears to have helped Patterson develop plate discipline.

If Philadelphia forces out Larry Bowa at some point, adding current Philly pitching coach Vern Ruhle should be at the top of the Cubs' list. Houston forced him out in 2000 to appease the media, and Philly's pitching has dramatically improved after adding Ruhle. We can attribute the development of Vicente Padilla and Brandon Duckworth, as well as the revitalization of Jose Mesa to Ruhle, who joined the Phillies prior to the 2001 season.

Buck Showalter is likely the ideal manager for this team(and not just because Rob Neyer suggested this possibility a few weeks ago), as long as he understands that this is Sammy's team, and that Sosa will likely be the club MVP in every single month for the next few years. He'll run the tight clubhouse necessary to keep all the youngsters from falling in with baseball traditionalists and bad influences, who unfortunately normally maintain the friendliest of relations with the media. Mark Grace is the perfect example of someone who shouldn't be welcome on this team, and hopefully he'll remain somewhere out west instead of begging for a contract here when Arizona dumps him at the end of the year. After he spends a couple seasons with the club, we can fire Showalter and immediately win the Series, following the pattern established by Buck's previous two teams.

We need to look for potential upgrades at C, SS, and LF along with 3B, but with Alou, Hundley, and Gonzalez all under contract through at least 2004, there's no need to address this situation as MacPhail doesn't seem to mind spending $20M/year on the 5-7-8 spots of the lineup. The Hill/Patterson/Sosa/Choi top four should develop into the most potent 1st inning attack in the NL, and adding someone like Blalock to the #6 slot gives the bottom of the lineup balance and offensive depth.

Returning to the pitching staff, aside from moving Kerry for a top 3B prospect, ideally Blalock, we can deal Lieber, Bere, and Fassero to anyone with interest, only requesting more AAA and AA pitchers in return. With the money saved from all these contracts, we can lock up Patterson and Hill for several years each, and also pick up one veteran starter to provide 200 IP. Pending free agents Greg Maddux or Al Leiter would be at the top of the list, and the Cubs should be able to afford either pitcher at around $10M/year for two or three years. Even without a veteran, Clement, Prior, Cruz, and either Carlos Zambrano or Steve Smyth likely give us the best young rotation in the league.

A bench built around Bellhorn and Roosevelt Brown doesn't need great hitters, and we can easily find a capable backup centerfielder, middle infielder, and catcher by inviting three or four comparable AAAA veterans at each position to spring training. Most of the others can remain at a somewhat depleted AAA team in case of injury. Julio Zuleta can come back from Iowa to give us a quality lefty masher and backup first baseman, completing one of the deepest (and cheapest) benches in the league. As he'll likely be available, Mike Kinkade also would be a wonderful option instead of either Zuleta or a second middle infielder, since Kinkade can play every position except shortstop while providing a great right-handed bat off the bench.

With Alfonseca, Farnsworth, and Chiasson, we already have a very gifted right-handed relief corps. Either Zambrano or Smyth can fill a long relief role, so we only need to find a lefty specialist and right-handed middle reliever, both positions that we can again fill by inviting a dozen AAAA pitchers to camp with the promise of a major league job. Current AAA Iowa right-handers Will Cunnane and Courtney Duncan also would be good internal options here, as might AA West Tennessee lefty relievers Rick Palma and David Noyce.

These changes have filled the 25-man roster, upgraded over a half dozen positions as Clement is pitching as well as Lieber and Prior may be better than Wood, and we've also shaved around $25 million off the payroll, aside from the cost of the innings' eater. We also haven't considered any return from potential Lieber, Bere, or Fassero deals, or the bounty from Tuesday's draft.

In summary, we recommend Mr. MacPhail deal Kerry Wood to Texas for Hank Blalock, reassert control over the clubhouse, find a manager and pitching coach who will understand an order to avoid pitching injuries at all costs, and send us to the playoffs in one of the next three years with a chance to advance to the Series.


Click here to read the previous article.

I can't please all the people all of the time, but I am more than willing to read the comments of the pleased, the irate, and everyone in between. You can send your opinions to jess@rotohelp.com.
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