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May
23rd
2002
Out of the Frying Pan
Rotohelp
From A's to F's?

by Jessica Polko

Oakland's trade of Jeremy Giambi capped off a series of changes in the A's clubhouse. On Tuesday, the team replaced three players on the roster with players from AAA. RHP Jeff Tam, 1B Carlos Pena, and 2B Frank Menechino were demoted in favor of 1B Larry Sutton, 2B Esteban German, and OF Adam Piatt.

Tam earned his demotion by allowing 33 H in 19.1 IP with a 5:7 K:BB this season. However, given his contract the A's would have been much better off trading Tam than demoting him. His trade value significantly decreases with his demotion.

Many expected Carlos Pena to start slow in the majors as that has been his traditional pattern when advancing a level. However, he started very hot with 8 H, including 4 HR, in 26 at-bats in the first week. He was unable to maintain that scorching pace but wasn't performing particularly poorly. Even when he went through a hitless week at the end of April/beginning of May, he contributed to the team with 8 walks. On Tuesday he had a 15:38 BB:K with 27 H, 4 2B and 7 HR, in 124 AB for a .218 BA, .305 OBP, and .419 SLG.

Pena should likely work on improving his BB:K, but as mentioned, he generally experiences some fluctuation for a few months at a new level. Demoting him at this time does nothing to assist him in working through those inconsistencies, and may mean he'll have to go through them again to some extent when he is next promoted. As a key component of their future offense, he belongs in the majors.

In 124 AB this season, Menechino has 26 H, 7 2B, 3 HR, with a 20:31 BB:K for a .210 BA, .322 OBP, .329 SLG. He also started fast before cooling off recently. After facing Texas, Seattle, and Anaheim in the first two-thirds of April, the A's began a run of games against the Yankees, White Sox, Red Sox, and Blue Jays. The Red Sox and Yankees respectively have the first and second best pitching staffs in the American League, and while Chicago and Toronto rank at the bottom of the list, both teams have a couple of talented starters who can hurt offenses. Oakland has just begun a run of games against Baltimore, Kansas City, and Tampa Bay, opening up an opportunity for these players to break out and gain confidence against lesser opponents. While they face some moderate opposition in San Francisco and their division mates in a few weeks, they don't truly run up against tough competition again until early August.

I believe the A's went through a similar scheduling slump last season and then proceeded to stampede through a run of lesser competition to grab the wild card with a record of 102-60. Oakland will likely play better than .500 ball over the next couple months, but it won't be because of the changes they've just made; it will be in spite of them as a result of their schedule. Poor front office decisions could also cause them to miss out on the potential success available, leaving them unlikely to make the playoffs.

I have difficulty arguing with the call-up of Esteban German. At the time of his promotion, German had 38 H, including four doubles and a triple, in 137 AB with a 22:20 BB:K for a .277 BA, .393 OBP, and .321 SLG. Combined with his 150 AAA AB last season, he's received enough experience in AAA to excuse a promotion.

He, like Pena, should be a key player in Oakland's future and therefore probably belongs in the majors. Due to turnover in the pitchers at AAA, by splitting his time between the end of 2001 and the beginning of this season, German essentially hasn't had to face the league a second time. Consequently, there is a risk that he will struggle when reaching the majors, though his skills justify the gamble.

Adam Piatt was also performing very well at AAA prior to his promotion. In 146 AB, he had 41 H, 7 2B and 5 HR, with a 17:19 BB:K for a .281 BA, .353 OBP, and .432 SLG. His presence in AAA was an example of the quality and depth of the Oakland organization.

Larry Sutton won his job on the 25-man roster with 45 H, 16 2B, 1 3B, 4 HR, and a 36:36 BB:K in 145 AB for a .310 BA, .443 OBP, and a .517 SLG. The 32-year-old was undeniably tearing up AAA, but Billy Beane should have been singing Sutton's praises to the Braves rather than coming within 10 feet of a phone for the purpose of trading Giambi to the Phillies for John Mabry. Sutton isn't a long-term solution in Oakland, and demoting Pena now isn't motivational; it's punitive and probably detrimental.

Oakland should never have traded peanuts for John Mabry if it meant they had to keep him on the roster for even a day before they could upgrade for crackerjacks; trading Jeremy Giambi was a waste. Piatt certainly seems to warrant a starting job in the majors, but so does Giambi and you don't throw away starters. If they genuinely felt the need to trade Giambi, then they should have at least made an effort to acquire something of value. There's no such thing as too much minor league depth and there are certainly areas where the A's could upgrade in the majors.

In addition to paltry offense, Mabry plays poor defense, so unless they're purposely sabotaging the team Oakland, shouldn't even consider starting him. Provided they aren't starting Mabry, the only baseball excuse left for the trade is money, and if this is a salary dump, the A's have essentially declared that they prefer cubic zirconium to diamond even if they can have the diamond for only 50 cents more. Giambi is scheduled to earn $1.065M compared to Mabry's reported $500K. Given the amount already paid out this season on both contracts, the A's will likely save less than $430K by making the switch.

As I haven't really discussed the Athletics' moves much at all this season, I'll cover a few more of their 2002 transactions before further discussing the team as a whole. Oakland demoted Mark Ellis and Mike Colangelo when Jermaine Dye and Randy Velarde were activated from the DL in the last week of April and first week of May respectively. Aside from three days at DH and a day off in order to give his leg a bit more rest than usual, Dye seems to have recovered from his injury. Velarde reports lingering soreness, which will likely continue throughout the season due to the continual stress on the hand during the course of the year.

On May 8th the A's placed David Justice on the DL with a strained groin that had sidelined him since the last week of April. Justice reportedly could return by the end of the week. Although given the sensitive nature of groin injuries, Oakland really shouldn't rush Justice if they want him to be a primary force in the offense for the rest of the season. The team called up Eric Byrnes to replace Justice on the roster.

Mike Fyhrie returned to AAA when Mulder was activated from the disabled list, but recently returned to the majors when Oakland placed Cory Lidle on the DL with inflammation in his right shoulder. Lidle's progressing well in his recovery and is scheduled to return to the team in the middle of next week. Mulder continued to suffer from the forearm tightness that sent him to the DL even after he was activated, but seems to be regaining his form after a month of struggles.

Looking at the club when everyone's healthy, the 25-man roster should be made up of the following players:
Ramon Hernandez, Starting Catcher
Greg Myers, Back-up Catcher
Scott Hatteberg, Back-up 1B/DH and Third Catcher
Carlos Pena, 1B
Esteban German, 2B; I'm not going to argue if they want to start the future now.
Miguel Tejada, SS
Eric Chavez, 3B
Adam Piatt, LF
Terrence Long, CF
Jermaine Dye, RF
David Justice, DH
Frank Menechino, Utility Infielder
Mark Ellis, Utility Infielder
Eric Byrnes, Utility OF

Rotation
Tim Hudson
Barry Zito
Mark Mulder
Cory Lidle
Erik Hiljus

Billy Koch, Closer
Chad Bradford, Jim Mecir, and Chad Harville, RH Setup
Two of Mike Holtz, Mike Magnante, and Mike Venafro, LH Relief

They should trade either Menechino or Randy Velarde, and as long as either Menechino or Mark Ellis can take some reps at third, it should be Velarde as he's by far the lesser player. Ellis is currently out of action in AAA with a broken finger but should be fine in 6 weeks, giving Oakland time to make the trade. The A's could also call-up Jason Grabowski from AAA, as I believe 3B is the primary position of the very flexible 2001 Rule 5 selection, who turns 26 on Friday.

Oakland also needs to dump one of their left-handed Mikes, so that they can call up Harville. There's no need for them to carry more than 11 pitchers, particularly if they can deal a lefty reliever. In addition to stockpiling minor league talent through these trades, the team could attempt to improve in centerfield.

As he's out of options and the team would likely lose him on waivers, the Athletics should attempt to trade Olmedo Saenz, as they have too many players crowding 1B/DH and he doesn't deserve a roster spot over the other candidates. Mike Colangelo would be another OF candidate, but his offensive skills don't match those of Byrnes, who can also handle centerfield. Colangelo should remain in AAA, providing the team with insurance in case of injury.

If the front office recovers from their current slump quickly, the team should remain among the best in baseball. However, they've certainly made mistakes in throwing away Giambi and demoting Pena. Even an organization this strong could easily topple with continued mismanagement. The club could suffer serious harm if they fail to move in the direction suggested above or if they choose to give significant playing time to Mabry, Sutton, etc. while jerking Pena back and forth.

Click here to read the previous article.

I can't please all the people all of the time, but I am more than willing to read the comments of the pleased, the irate, and everyone in between. You can send your opinions to jess@rotohelp.com.
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