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May
14th
2002
Out of the Frying Pan
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Slip 'N Slide

by Jessica Polko

Manny Ramirez fractured the index finger of his left hand on the shin guard of catcher Dan Wilson while sliding headfirst into home plate in the second inning of Saturday's game against the Seattle Mariners. Boston plans to place the outfielder on the DL today.

After three days of tests, doctors do not think Ramirez will need surgery to repair the break. However, he's expected to spend 4-6 weeks on the disabled list resting and then on a likely brief rehab assignment. If he rushes back from the injury before the fracture has fully healed, it could affect his swing.

Ramirez had created 40 of the 197 runs the Red Sox scored before his incapacitation. I believe he was also leading the American League in BA, OBP, SLG, and OPS. If we refigure the Red Sox's Pythagorean wins using the runs created of a replacement level player rather than of Ramirez, then we can see that Boston likely would have had a record of 21-12 rather than 24-9 through Saturday.

At this point we've played around 6 weeks of the season, so if we determine that Ramirez will miss 4-6 weeks because of this injury, we can likely predict that Boston will win 2-3 games less than if he were healthy and with the team. Those extra losses will probably hurt the Red Sox significantly in the pennant race against the Yankees where every win matters.

Boston currently lead the AL East by three games with a 25-9 record, second in the majors only to the Mariners who are 26-11. However, the Yankees are not far behind at 24-14 and after a fairly easy start to the season, Boston's schedule heats up a bit over the next few weeks. They spend the next two weeks at home, but they have to face Oakland, Seattle, Chicago, and New York for a series apiece. June is slightly better but still offers some challenges with a series in New York and interleague play. Manny should return just in time for July when they have series against Detroit, Tampa Bay, and Baltimore.

The Red Sox may be able to handle replacing Manny better than many other teams, as Rickey Henderson is available to take over a large portion of his playing time. Perhaps Rickey has a connection with the powers that be considering Rickey was complaining just last week that Rickey was not receiving enough playing time. However, obviously if Rickey is playing full-time in the outfield, someone with lesser skills will take over Rickey's role off the bench.

I'd planned to take a look at the team and discuss players that were underachieving or playing over their heads. However, I'm just not seeing a lot of variation, and the little bit here is rather balanced by the surrounding team. Consequently, aside from injuries and the increased difficulty of the schedule, I expect the Red Sox to proceed pretty much as they have. Unfortunately, I still expect the wild card to come out of the AL West and I don't think Boston will be able to stay above the Yankees. They really need a good lead going into the final weeks of the season as New York plays a series at Tampa Bay, a series at Detroit, and then a series against the Devil Rays, before finishing up the season at Baltimore.

I'll take this opportunity to cover a couple of Boston transactions and injury updates. Major League Baseball suspended Trot Nixon for four games, fining him for allegedly intentionally releasing his bat during a plate appearance against the Devil Rays. Ryan Rupe was reportedly wild in the first inning of the game with Tampa Bay and hit both Nomar Garciaparra and Shea Hillenbrand with pitches. The thought was that at least the pitch that drilled Hillenbrand was retaliation for the grand slam hit by the third baseman the night before. Consequently, when Nixon's bat went flying in the second inning, conditions were suspect, as they were when Frank Castillo, who also received a fine and a five-day suspension, hit Randy Winn later in the game.

Rupe was fined but not suspended. Nixon originally intended to appeal the suspension but will likely drop it now that he's contracted a stomach virus so that he can serve the suspension while he rests. Castillo is still appealing his sentence.

Dustin Hermanson, on the DL with a groin injury, had his mound session pushed back twice recently. He's still likely a week away from a rehab assignment and will probably make more than one start in the minors before rejoining the team. His groin injury was rather serious and is taking a while to heal.

However, Paxton Crawford, on the the DL following February shoulder surgery, recently threw in an extended Spring Training game and will likely head to the minors for more serious rehab soon. Boston is expected to take things slow with Crawford and leave him in the minors until mid-season barring injuries.

Left-hander Jeff Wallace is reportedly quite some time away even from rehab. Boston placed Wallace on the DL with a sore elbow before the season, but he's since been diagnosed with shoulder tendinitis.

Click here to read the previous article.

I can't please all the people all of the time, but I am more than willing to read the comments of the pleased, the irate, and everyone in between. You can send your opinions to jess@rotohelp.com.
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