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May
9th
2002
Out of the Frying Pan
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Happy Endying

by Jessica Polko

Montreal demoted Peter Bergeron to AAA on Tuesday. Bergeron hit well in the first week and maintained good strike zone judgment for the first two weeks of the season, but after that he seemed to abandon his plate discipline, so he wasn't getting on base with hits or walks.

Endy Chavez replaced Bergeron on the roster, assuming both the leadoff and centerfield duties. Chavez had a hot week to end April and begin May, including hitting for the cycle in one game, and earned the International League Batter of the Week Award. The combination of his week and Bergeron's slump was all it took for GM Omar Minaya to make the transaction. Minaya's familiarity with Chavez from his time with the Mets led to the GM claiming the outfielder off waivers this winter and also likely influenced this decision now.

From the moment I read of this swap I intended to complain that it was a silly punitive demotion and the Expos were making a mistake in sending down a slumping player with potential for a hot AAAA guy. Bergeron was a fourth round draft pick, born and raised in Massachusetts, while Chavez was a nondrafted free agent from Venezuela.

However when I went to look at the two 24-year-olds, Chavez's statistical history rivals and perhaps exceeds Bergeron's. The two have traveled fairly different career paths. Bergeron hurried through the minors due to high organizational expectations. He went straight to short season A-ball after he was drafted by the Dodgers, then spent a year in full year in A-ball in 1997. He was promoted to AA the following year, and then traded mid-season to Montreal with 2B Wilton Guerrero, 1B Jonathan Tucker, and LHP Ted Lilly for LHP Carlos Perez, OF Hiram Bocachica, and SS Mark Grudzielanek. By the end of 1999, he'd received his first major league call-up. Bergeron has been in the majors since then aside from a demotion to AAA last season.

Meanwhile Chavez was left in Rookie ball long after he appeared ready to advance. When Chavez was finally promoted, he began moving at a pace more in line with his demonstrated skills. Then last season, when he should have entered AA, the Royals selected him in the Rule 5 draft, and Kansas City chose to bounce him around AA, AAA, and the majors despite trading Michael Curry to the Mets for Chavez's rights. He logically struggled at the higher levels while continuing his quality performance during his AA time. Montreal started him at AAA this season, and in 102 AB he compiled a BB:K of 16:12, stole 6 bases, and amassed 37 hits, including 6 doubles, 2 triples, and 2 home runs.

Both outfielders historically have little power but promising speed, so their on-base skills are particularly important in maximizing their speed tools. Although his early strike zone judgment was hardly promising, Bergeron displayed good plate discipline in AA. However aside from early this spring, those skills have not reemerged, indicating that he should have moved more slowly from AA to the majors. On the contrary, aside from his 181 at-bats above AA last season, Chavez has never posted a BB:K of less than .94.

I still feel that demoting Bergeron was a mistake if the Expos ever intend to use him in a full-time roll again. Seventeen walks in his first 14 games should have entitled him to additional time with the major league hitting instructor despite his poor history and current slump. Sending him down at this point serves little purpose unless the demotion is for the duration of the season, and that seems very drastic at this point, particularly in light of his recent achievements.

I'm also not certain that Chavez will be able to carry his AAA success to the majors or of the predictive value of such a limited sample size. He certainly isn't off to a fast start after only making it on base once (on an error) with 7 ground ball outs and 1 flyball out in his 9 PA to date.

However I would have based my decision to leave each at their respective levels more upon a perception of the best course for their individual development than their skill levels. Chavez is no less worthy of the big league at-bats than Bergeron. I just hope that Montreal won't reverse this move as soon as Bergeron's 10 required days in the minors expire.

The Expos made another change to their outfield yesterday when they demoted Henry Rodriguez and called up Troy O'Leary. Rodriguez had just one hit in 20 at-bats and had compiled a 4:8 BB:K. In 89 at-bats in AAA, O'Leary has 29 H including six doubles and three home runs, so it's worth making the switch.

Both players have passed the point in their careers where they really add anything to their teams. O'Leary may be headed towards his early thirties power surge, but HRod seems to have passed the point of usefulness. Neither has ever had anything close to good plate discipline, making it unlikely that either will experience much more success.

Click here to read the previous article.

I can't please all the people all of the time, but I am more than willing to read the comments of the pleased, the irate, and everyone in between. You can send your opinions to jess@rotohelp.com.
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