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April
18th
2002
Out of the Frying Pan
Rotohelp
Toad Prince?

by Jessica Polko

The Texas Rangers demoted John Rocker on Wednesday. Rocker was filling in as the Rangers' closer while Jeff Zimmerman is on the DL. However, he was not getting the job done. In 5.2 IP this season, he allowed 11 H, 1 HR, 6 ER, and, 4 BB though he did accumulate 9 strikeouts. He was able to save one game but blew two saves and was credited with a loss.

Texas made the decision to demote Rocker after his most recent blown save. Due to Rocker's less than 4 years of major league service time, the Rangers are not obligated to release him if he declines his assignment to AAA. The Rangers hope that Rocker will accept the assignment and have given him longer than the normal 72-hour period to make up his mind.

If he refuses, Texas will have to decide if they want to release him or place him on the suspended list. GM John Hart has stated that trading Rocker does not seem to be a viable option as he doesn't expect much interest given Rocker's recent ineffectiveness. The Rangers were able to acquire Rocker for nothing more than mediocre pitching prospect David Elder, and Hart would likely be willing to let him go for a similar price. Right now his perceived value is so low Texas would probably be hard-pressed to receive even a similar player for the lefty.

While Rocker receives a $2.5M salary when he is in the majors, his contract stipulates that he only receives $625K when in the minors; the amounts are prorated according to his time at each level. Texas wants Rocker to spend some time in the minors rediscovering what's been missing from his performances and then rejoins the major league team to assist in the pen; I expect him to rejoin the Rangers no sooner than a month from now.

However, when and if Rocker does return, he's unlikely to resume the duties of the closer. Although, Rocker coveted the title of Texas closer and wanted consideration for the role when the Rangers acquired him this off-season, they did not intend for him to be their closer. The Rangers wanted Jeff Zimmerman to continue to close, while Rocker was simply supposed to be another quality arm in the bullpen. Unfortunately due to injuries, Rocker was left as the most experienced closer when the Rangers broke camp.

Now that Rocker's lost the job and Zimmerman is still injured, the Rangers will be turning to their other relievers to close. Last night, in the first game following Rocker's demotion, Hideki Irabu was given a chance to close out the game and earned a save. Since then, manager Jerry Narron has indicated that the team will go with a committee to close, but Irabu will be the primary reliever in the committee and receive the first chance.

Irabu came to MLB in 1997 after 9 years in the Japanese leagues. He spent three years with the Yankees before he was traded to Montreal. The Expos released him after the 2001 season and he signed with the Rangers this off-season. In the past, teams have primarily complained about Irabu's weight problems. Irabu reportedly lost 15 lbs this off-season. The 33-year-old pitched acceptably in Spring Training where he was competing for a place in the rotation. Irabu lost the starting job, and much to his displeasure, was placed in the bullpen as a swingman. He has made two starts this season due to injury problems in the rotation.

While the prestige of being the closer might eradicate Irabu's irritation at not starting, there are other concerns regarding his ability to handle the job. Historically, Irabu is not an overly dominant pitcher despite a previous reputation as the "Japanese Nolan Ryan". He allows too many hits and does not strike out enough batters. He also has problems with home runs, which is troubling considering the hitter-friendly environs of his home ballpark.

The statistics in his sabermetric past that most cause me to doubt his capacity to handle his new position are those he's accumulated in his first inning of work. Many pitchers are able to improve when they move from rotation work to the bullpen because they can then focus their efforts on a reduced number of batters. However, others are unsuited to the task as it frequently takes them an inning or two to warm up before they begin to throw their best stuff. While these pitchers can pitch well enough in the remainder of their innings to make acceptable starters, they are poor candidates for relief work as they don't have the additional innings to counter their initial struggles. Irabu has historically not been a pitcher who excels when he first enters the game.

Irabu may be able to overcome these obstacles and perform admirably for the Rangers' as the head of their closer committee until Zimmerman is able to return. Handfuls of pitchers have had short-term success as closers despite much more ominous statistical pasts. However the jury is still out on whether Irabu, once dubbed a "fat toad" by Yankee owner George Steinbrenner, will turn into a prince of relief and keep his closer's crown.

Zimmerman's recovery from elbow tendinitis has not progressed well. He continues to experience set backs and further testing has uncovered bone spurs on his elbow and inflammation. He's done some throwing on flat ground, but though he may begin again tomorrow, those sessions have been halted recently. He will probably need three to five weeks of uninterrupted rehab pitching before he can rejoin the team, so Texas will need someone else to close until at least mid-May.

Though Narron indicated that Irabu would be the lead man in the committee, he did say there would be a committee. Yesterday in his article, Tim took a look at the Texas relievers, focusing on their 2002 performances to determine the most likely candidates for saves. Despite the small sample size, he chose to look primarily at this season as that is likely what the Rangers will do when determining who to use as temporary closers. Recent trends are more significant in this particular case, as Texas is looking for someone to perform now since they probably don't need a long-term solution.

Based on his findings, Steve Woodard appears to have the best shot at picking up saves as another member of the committee or if Irabu struggles and is pulled from his position of prominence. Todd Van Poppel will likely also be at the top of the list. John Hart reportedly referenced Rudy Seanez as a potential candidate, but Seanez's poor start should diminish his chances.

Click here to read the previous article.

I can't please all the people all of the time, but I am more than willing to read the comments of the pleased, the irate, and everyone in between. You can send your opinions to jess@rotohelp.com.
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