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April
2nd
2002
Out of the Frying Pan
Rotohelp
2002 Predicted End-of-Year Awards

by Jessica Polko

American League MVP:
1. Alex Rodriguez
2. Magglio Ordonez
3. Jason Giambi

A great season from the best player in baseball on a team that does well all season should place him at the top of the ballot. Projections for Ordonez describe him as having an MVP caliber season, so there's every reason to expect he'll receive MVP votes. Giambi should have a great year with the Yankees, but I'm concerned that he'll fall behind the other two in the voting if he has any troubles at all during the year with the hamstring that bothered him in Spring Training. Other players likely to be in the top 10 in votes include: Ichiro Suzuki, Mike Sweeney, Manny Ramirez, Juan Gonzalez, Derek Jeter, Darin Erstad, and Carlos Delgado.

American League Cy Young:
1. Mike Mussina
2. Cory Lidle
3. Tim Hudson

Mussina should finally reach 20 wins with the help of the Yankees' offense, which allows him to capture the attention of the BBWAA, who will recognize his outstanding skills at last. Any one of the Oakland starters could receive votes, but we think Lidle will probably have a slightly better year than Hudson, and Hudson should perform better than Mulder and Zito. Chan Ho Park may also receive votes if he manages to maintain his past success in the hitter-friendly environs of the Ballpark at Arlington, and Appier could have a very good season at the top of a good Anaheim team.

American League Rookie of the Year:
1. Hank Blalock
2. Nick Johnson
3. Carlos Pena

All three of these players should have great seasons. However, I think that Blalock will have a slightly better season than Johnson and that he will stick out more given the general flashiness of the Texas offense as opposed to Johnson, who will blend with the overall quality of the Yankees. Pena could easily jump to the top, but he generally starts slow at a new level and may run into some playing time problems if the A's don't make their normally intelligent decisions when Dye returns from the DL. Since the other two will be strong all season, he gets nudged to third.

American League Manager of the Year:
1. Jerry Narron
2. Art Howe
3. Grady Little

Texas should have a very good season, and if Narron can last the season, he will likely impress a lot of people. Due to the general class and intelligence of the Oakland organization, Howe is a perennially contender, and Little will receive votes for success in his first season with the Red Sox.

American League Comeback Player of the Year:
1. Nomar Garciaparra
2. Frank Thomas
3. David Wells

Garciaparra may get off to a slow start with several rest days in April, but by May he should be heating up and on his way to the kind of year we are accustomed to seeing from him. Thomas should have a good season, but is prone to slumps, so a consistent season from Nomar places Frank in second. Considering the extent of Wells' problems during his disappointing 2001, he should pull third with good season this year. Mitch Meluskey could also garner some votes.

American League Executive of the Year:
1. Billy Beane
2. J.P. Ricciardi
3. Bill Stoneman

Another off-season of good trades and securing players for the next several seasons along with another successful season should put Beane at the top of this list. After a good season by his young team, Ricciardi should be recognized for his success in executing his rebuilding plan in a efficient and effective manner. There are rumors that the Angels have discovered the advantages of on-base percentage and that they may still be in the market to improve their club. If Stoneman can execute these ideas, then an already incredibly competitive division should become wild to watch. Brian Cashman and John Hart will also likely receive consideration.


National League MVP:
1. Sammy Sosa
2. Barry Bonds
3. Chipper Jones

Four out of five seasons with more than 60 home runs, another season of leading the Cubs' offense, even with a bit more support from his teammates this year, and a good finish in the standings for Chicago should make Sosa the MVP. Bonds will put up another impressive season, but the slight drop off from last season's historic performance and the Giants missing the playoffs will cost him enough votes to finish second. Jones should have a great season at the plate and will impress people with his defensive skills at his new position in the outfield; combined with a successful season for the Braves, he should finish 3rd. Other players likely to be in the top 10 in votes include: Gary Sheffield, Randy Johnson, Ryan Klesko, Luis Gonzalez, Todd Helton, Shawn Green and Vladimir Guerrero.

National League Cy Young:
1. Randy Johnson
2. Javier Vazquez
3. Russ Ortiz

Johnson should once again be the most dominant pitcher in the league and you just can't argue with his numbers. Vazquez should also have a truly great season, but a lack of run support will keep his win total down and prevent him from really challenging Randy. Ortiz should have a very good season with a lot of success due to his comfortable home park. We think Jason Isringhausen could definitely receive votes for leading the league in saves with an impressive performance leading the bullpen of a very good St. Louis squad. Kerry Wood, Curt Schilling, and Greg Maddux will all also garner votes.

National League Rookie of the Year:
1. Sean Burroughs
2. Morgan Ensberg
3. Josh Beckett

Sean Burroughs should have a better season than Morgan Ensberg even without the benefit of Enron, and a full season of productive offense and good defense overcomes the pitching performances. Josh Beckett should have a better season than Mark Prior and Juan Cruz. Brad Wilkerson and Kurt Ainsworth probably shouldn't be ignored here either.

National League Manager of the Year:
1. Jimy Williams
2. Bruce Bochy
3. Buddy Bell

Jimy Williams has been rewarded in the past by the BBWAA, and considering the likely success of the Houston team, he will probably win this in a cakewalk. Many people will likely be surprised by the success of the Padres and Bochy should be a large part of their success, and while the Rockies will not finish well overall, they should see a marked improvement over last season that will likely reflect well on Bell. Don Baylor could easily receive votes here as the Cubs should have a good season. While we've never been particularly high on his managerial skills, we were forced to consider the idea that he might have "grown a brain" during the off-season regarding prospects. More than once this winter we've heard him make comments that we never would have expected to hear from him in past seasons. His treatment of Patterson and Hundley this spring has been much better, and Larry Rothschild seems to be exerting quality influence, especially with regards to the young pitchers, as the pitching coach. The reason he isn't listed higher is that his in-game decisions are frequently questionable.

National League Comeback Player of the Year:
1. Mo Vaughn
2. Garrett Stephenson
3. Andy Ashby

Mo should be a driving force on the Mets this season and one that helps keep them off the bottom rung of the NL East. After missing all of last season and performing below expectations in Anaheim, a return to something close to his Boston form should easily win him this title. An incredibly speedy and successful return from Tommy John hands second place to Stephenson, and Ashby pulls third with a good performance following last year's season-ending elbow surgery. Todd Hundley and Rafael Furcal will also likely receive consideration.

National League Executive of the Year:
1. Walt Jocketty
2. John Schuerholz
3. Steve Phillips

Jocketty continues to make the Cardinals a team full of quality players with rare exceptions. Right now the bullpen is so full he'll likely wind up trading a former closer or two for help in other areas during the course of the season. Schuerholz did a good job of addressing most of the needs of the organization this off-season and is likely to continue to add to the club during the season. Acquiring Sheffield balances out the questionable Castilla signing and settling for Julio Franco, Wes Helms, and B.J. Surhoff at first base. While Phillips' off-season moves probably won't achieve the success for the team that many expect, he has managed to add enough talent to prevent them from completely falling apart this season.

Click here to read the previous article.

I can't please all the people all of the time, but I am more than willing to read the comments of the pleased, the irate, and everyone in between. You can send your opinions to jess@rotohelp.com.
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