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March
25th
2002
Out of the Frying Pan
Rotohelp
AL East

by Jessica Polko

Starting today, this column will be taking a week off from its normal coverage of recent news to preview all thirty teams by division, followed by a day of our predictions for the playoffs and the World Series, as well as the end of year awards.

Monday: AL East
Tuesday: AL Central
Wednesday: AL West

Thursday: NL East
Friday: NL Central
Saturday: NL West

Sunday: Rotohelp Predictions

I will be providing projections of actual lineups, rotations, bullpens and benches for each team, as well as comments on injuries and potential replacements. Each projected roster will be accompanied by additional commentary. With an average of 5 teams a day, there are going to be areas which are less thoroughly covered, so please feel free to send me an e-mail if you have questions.

As far as this week's breaking news, I will try to incorporate everything relevant to the divisions as I go along. However everything else will have to wait until next Monday or Tuesday, as I will not backtrack during the course of the week to comment on how a particular development will effect a team I've already finished; updates on the labor situation will also wait.

American League East

Baltimore Orioles
1. Jerry Hairston, 2B
2. Chris Singleton, CF
3. David Segui, DH
4. Jeff Conine, 1B
5. Jay Gibbons, RF
6. Marty Cordova, LF
7. Tony Batista, 3B
8. Mike Bordick, SS
9. Brook Fordyce, C

Bench
Fernando Lunar, C
Melvin Mora, UT
Mike Moriarty, IF
Chad Allen, LF/RF
Larry Bigbie, OF

Rotation
1. Scott Erickson
2. Jason Johnson
3. Sidney Ponson
4. Josh Towers
5. Calvin Maduro

Bullpen
Closer: Jorge Julio
Setup: LHP Buddy Groom
Setup: RHP Willis Roberts
L2: B.J. Ryan
L3: John Bale
R3: Chris Brock

Injury Notes

Maduro is on the 15-day DL with a strained muscle in his right forearm. He should be eligible to return by April 5th, so since the team isn't expected to need a 5th starter until April 7th, he shouldn't miss a start.

Matos had the hamate bone removed from his left hand. This is the same bone that Erubiel Durazo had removed last week, and like Durazo, Matos is expected back around the second week of May.

Chris Richard will start the season on the 60-day DL following off-season rotator cuff surgery. Initial projections had him out until at least the All-star break, but he appears to be progressing quickly so that he may be able to return early. He's in camp and has begun a 9-week rehab program that may have him back with the team by mid-June, especially if he can ease back onto the team with DH at-bats to cut down on the extra-effort required to throw when playing the field.

Mora lost his starting job when he fractured his ring finger in a winter league game and was expected to miss a good portion of the season with the injury. His finger has healed quickly so he has already been able to swing a bat. He is still expected to only hold a utility position, though he could receive a considerable number of at-bats depending on the health of his teammates.

Infielder Brian Roberts has elected not to have surgery to remove the bone chips in his elbow. However it is not a problem that rest or rehab will fix, so if it begins to cause him too much pain or severely hamper his play during the season he may have to have the surgery, which would likely cause him to miss a good portion of the year.

Chris Singleton had hamstring problems early this spring and recently developed a sore calf and Achilles' tendon. He thinks the calf/tendon problem is related to insoles in his shoes, which he is replacing, but these troubles could be a problem for him throughout the year if he is unable to correct them. While he may not need to go on the DL, his running could easily be hampered by the injury.

Left-handed reliever John Parrish is expected to miss the season after knee surgery to repair a torn ACL.

Left-handed reliever Luis Rivera has not pitched in a game this spring training due to shoulder tendinitis.

Pat Hentgen had Tommy John surgery last August. He could return anytime after August this season, but it is more likely his return will mirror that of Scott Erickson, who had his surgery at almost the same time a year before Hentgen.

John Bale has had some trouble with the elbow upon which he had off-season surgery to remove a tissue band. An MRI showed no damage, but the pain has kept him from pitching.

Erickson is almost 20 months removed from Tommy John surgery, so he should be much better prepared to return to the rotation than many pitchers who attempt to rush back after a little over a year. He's had no elbow problems this spring.

Offense Notes: Last season Baltimore moved their fences back, which had the effect of turning the traditionally hitter-friendly Camden Yards into a pitchers' park. The Orioles evidently weren't pleased with the results as the fences have been returned to their original position, good news for the Baltimore hitters but unfortunate for their young pitchers.

With the off-season removal of a large cyst and tightening of his left shoulder, Lunar may see a slight offensive uptick as he should no longer be in pain with every swing. Lunar and Geranimo Gil are in competition for the second catcher's spot on the roster. However even though he is the better player, Gil has options remaining, so he's likely headed to AAA. Baltimore is looking to trade one of the two, likely Lunar, in which case Gil would be recalled. Fordyce will probably see more playing time with Lunar on the bench; if Gil is the second catcher, the time may be more evenly split.

Mike Bordick's recovery from the shoulder surgery that ended his 2001 season appears to be progressing well. He is not expected to have further troubles with the shoulder this season.

Once he recovers from his wrist injury, Matos will likely spend some time in the minors. Injuries to the rest of the team could speed his return as the Orioles don't have a lot of depth anywhere on the field. The team primarily adjusts by using their position flexibility but that begins to wear thin after a while. However, without injuries there won't be much playing time available and Baltimore won't be quick to call him up to sit on the bench.

Rather than employ a set DH, Batista, Conine, Cordova, Gibbons, and Segui will reportedly take turns as the designated hitter; Segui is expected to receive the majority of the DH at-bats. He seems to have recovered from his off-season knee-surgery but recently strained his Achilles' tendon. While he should be fine by Opening Day, injuries are becoming more and more troublesome for Segui.

Pitching Notes: While Willis Roberts took over as closer and performed acceptably last season, Baltimore really wanted to acquire a veteran this off-season but had no luck in attracting free agents or completing trades. Their first inclination this spring was to go with a committee, but Julio has been impressive in his spring starts. They would like him to succeed in the role but have concerns about his youth. Buddy Groom would be the third member of the committee if they decide to go with a group effort, but I currently expect them to start the season with Julio as the closer and possibly even try Roberts before going to a committee. However I don't think they will have to resort to that as Julio should be able to handle the job. Despite their comparable youth, the club is currently more comfortable with Julio rather than Roberts because the Orioles feel Julio is better suited to the role mentally in addition to his superior dominance.

The Orioles are discussing moving one or more of their starters. If someone is traded or injured, Sean Douglass is the most likely person to be called up, followed by Rick Bauer and John Stephens. The team is expected to carry an extra position player during the time Maduro is on the DL rather than a replacement pitcher


Boston Red Sox
1. Johnny Damon, CF
2. Trot Nixon, RF
3. Nomar Garciaparra, SS
4. Manny Ramirez, LF
5. Tony Clark, 1B
6. Brian Daubach, DH
7. Jason Varitek, C
8. Shea Hillenbrand, 3B
9. Rey Sanchez, 2B

Bench
Doug Mirabelli, C
Carlos Baerga, IF
Jose Offerman, UT
Rickey Henderson, OF
Michael Coleman, OF

Rotation
1. Pedro Martinez
2. Dustin Hermanson
3. John Burkett
4. Derek Lowe
5. Frank Castillo

Bullpen
Closer: Ugueth Urbina
Setup: Rich Garces
Righty: Rolando Arrojo
Lefty: Casey Fossum
Long Relief: Tim Wakefield
Swingman: LHP Darren Oliver

Injury Notes

Calvin Pickering will probably be out for the season following surgery to repair a torn right quadriceps.

Michael Coleman has a minor hamstring strain. He should be fine in a few days, but this may slow him down enough to lose his spot on the Opening Day team. Damon Buford is receiving some consideration for the roster. The club could also decide to take only one extra outfielder and instead keep an additional infielder. They have had Offerman taking balls in the outfield. The most recent rumors have said that they may carry 12 pitchers.

Paxton Crawford had shoulder surgery in February and isn't expected to be ready to pitch until late May. Unless Boston is having troubles with injuries, I would expect him to spend some additional time in the minors before he receives a call up.

Jeff Wallace was placed on the DL with elbow soreness caused by bone spurs. He will be eligible to return April 4th, but there is no indication as to whether he will be healthy at that point. They don't currently expect him to need surgery. Even if he is in full health at that time, he isn't likely to displace Fossum in the bullpen.

Offense Notes: No member of the Red Sox will have a green light to steal without a sign.

Garciaparra just recently played in games on consecutive days for the first time this spring. He had no trouble without the day of rest and plans to work three days in a row soon. Nomar should be playing almost full time by Opening Day and unless he encounters problems, I'd expect him to be taking only the occasional rest day by May.

Lou Merloni could easily make the roster over everyone on the bench other than Doug Mirabelli and Rickey Henderson. The Red Sox are looking at trades for Offerman and Daubach. They have even discussed releasing Offerman, but I'm not yet willing to believe they're actually going to do that. If a trade takes place, then both Baerga and Merloni can be kept on the roster.

Pitching Notes: Considering the health questions in their rotation, Boston needs a reliable bullpen. Pedro Martinez appears to be in fairly good health this spring, though he is taking his time working up his pitch count. I don't expect him to go deep into games until at least late April. Burkett has been troubled by shoulder stiffness this spring. Derek Lowe doesn't have the stamina for the rotation and risks injury if he does not return to the bullpen. However, the Red Sox still intend to use him as a starter. Castillo is likely the fifth starter, but Oliver will probably receive the occasional start against lefty-heavy lineups.

Urbina is a strong closer and several members of the pen are capable of pitching multiple innings. Wakefield alone should be able to take a considerable amount of stress off the rotation. A reportedly slimmer Rich Garces should excel in the set-up role occupied last year by Rod Beck.

New York Yankees
1. Derek Jeter, SS
2. Bernie Williams, CF
3. Jason Giambi, 1B
4. Jorge Posada, C
5. Rondell White, LF
6. Robin Ventura, 3B
7. Shane Spencer, RF
8. Nick Johnson, DH
9. Alfonso Soriano, 2B

Bench
Alberto Castillo, C
Todd Greene, C, 1B, LF/RF
Enrique Wilson, IF
John Vander Wal, LF/RF, 1B
Gerald Williams, OF

Rotation
1. Roger Clemens
2. Mike Mussina
3. Andy Pettitte
4. David Wells
5. Orlando Hernandez

Bullpen
Closer: Mariano Rivera
Setup: Steve Karsay
Righty: Ramiro Mendoza
Lefty: Mike Stanton
Swingman: Ted Lilly
Long Relief: Mike Thurman

Injury Notes

Rondell White strained his rib cage early in spring training and has been sidelined ever since. He has begun taking BP and is expected to participate in a game tomorrow. If he is playing with the Yankees next weekend, he may not start the season on the DL. However even though he may have returned to health, White has missed out on almost all of Spring Training and will likely be rusty, so New York may decide to give him the extra two weeks to get his swing back in extended Spring Training. Vander Wal may play right field and Spencer may shift to left if White misses time.

Bernie Williams has been sidelined with hamstring problems the last two weeks. He's also expected to begin playing in games this week. However, while he participated in more of spring training than White before he was injured, Williams could still be a little rusty, so he may also start the season on the DL if he continues to have troubles with the hamstring. I think it is more likely that White will miss time than Williams, although Williams may be limited to DHing for a portion of his early season at-bats. Unfortunately, when Bernie is not in center, the Yankees' best option is Gerald Williams.

Sterling Hitchcock will start the season on the DL because of a strained ligament in his back. He won't pitch for the next week to 10 days and will then go through at-least two weeks of extended Spring Training or minor league rehab before joining the roster. He should be able to return around the third week in April.

Ramiro Mendoza may start the season on the DL with neck stiffness. He has improved recently, but it is another question of adequate preparation in camp.

Offense Notes: Ron Coomer has not had a strong spring, so I expect them to take Todd Greene since he can play multiple positions. He likely won't catch except in extreme circumstances, but that flexibility is still appealing with Posada recovering from off-season shoulder surgery. Posada is supposedly fully healthy, but he has come back fairly quickly.

Jason Giambi's hamstring appears to have healed, but once a hamstring becomes a problem, the trouble usually returns at various intervals. While the Yankees have several options to cover first, I'm sure they'll be quite annoyed if their hired gun is shot in the foot.

New York is reportedly considering batting Soriano in the leadoff slot, but considering that his plate discipline still leaves much to be desired despite improvement in the second half of 2001, I don't think the idea will stick.

Pitching Notes: Pettitte is expected to start the season despite the mild muscle stain in his elbow. He now appears to be healthy and ready to pitch. The Yankees have some injury questions in their rotation, but they also have a very strong bullpen to which they can turn.


Tampa Bay Devil Rays
1. Jason Tyner, CF
2. Brent Abernathy, 2B
3. Ben Grieve, DH
4. Greg Vaughn, LF
5. Toby Hall, C
6. Steve Cox, 1B
7. Randy Winn, RF
8. Russ Johnson, 3B
9. Chris Gomez, SS

Bench
John Flaherty, C
Aubrey Huff, CR
Bobby Smith, IF
Jason Conti, OF

Rotation
1. Tanyon Sturtze
2. Joe Kennedy
3. Paul Wilson
4. Ryan Rupe
5. Wilson Alvarez

Bullpen
Closer: Esteban Yan
Setup: Victor Zambrano
Righty: Travis Phelps
L1: Doug Creek
L2: Steve Kent
Middle Relief: Jesus Colome
6th starter: Nick Bierbrodt

Injury Notes

Felix Martinez's knee tendinitis will likely prevent him from making the roster as a utilityman.

Kevin McGlinchy will start the season on the 60 day DL. He's only suffering from a sore shoulder that has reportedly already started to feel better, but as McGlinchy is a Rule 5 pick, the Devil Rays want to use whatever excuse possible to keep him on the DL rather than the roster.

Offense Notes: Flaherty could be traded, in which case Sal Fasano would become the back-up catcher. Greg Vaughn will likely DH for the majority of his at-bats to start the season because of a sore calf. He lost a good deal of preparation time this spring to a cyst on his hand, so he may have a slow start.

The Devil Rays don't really have a second reserve outfielder, so I think that with all of the youth in their staff, they will use their 25th roster slot on a 12th pitcher.

Pitching Notes: Nick Bierbrodt could be kept in the rotation over Alvarez or Rupe, but due to his control problems this spring, he has probably lost his starting spot for the moment. He may even stay in extended Spring Training or be optioned to the minors. Almost everybody's young in this staff, but almost everyone is also talented. There won't be a lot of wins because there won't be much support from the offense and they will also encounter some growing pains, but we should see several good performances from this group.


Toronto Blue Jays
1. Shannon Stewart, LF
2. Eric Hinske, 3B
3. Raul Mondesi, RF
4. Carlos Delgado, 1B
5. Jose Cruz, Jr., CF
6. Darrin Fletcher, C
7. Felipe Lopez, SS
8. Homer Bush, 2B
9. Vernon Wells, DH

Bench
Tom Wilson, C
Joe Lawrence, C, UT
Dave Berg, IF
Chris Latham, OF

Rotation
1. Chris Carpenter
2. Luke Prokopec
3. Roy Halladay
4. Brandon Lyon
5. Scott Eyre

Bullpen
Closer: Kelvim Escobar
Setup: Bob File
L1: Pedro Borbon
L2: Dan Plesac
L3: Felix Heredia
Long Relief: Brian Cooper
Swingman: Corey Thurman

Injury Notes

Jose Cruz, Jr. is recovering from a strained left oblique muscle injured early in Spring Training. He is expected to break camp with the club but could easily land on the DL with a setback.

Esteban Loaiza has a torn labrum. He is currently opting for rehab, and though he will miss Opening, Day he expects to pitch this season. He is throwing off a mound, but there is no set schedule for his return. While Loaiza is pitching on a regular basis, there is no way for this injury to heal. He may be able to return and pitch for a few months, but I wouldn't be surprised if he were out for the season by the All-Star break.

Steve Parris had season-ending shoulder surgery to repair his rotator cuff in 2001. He has begun a rehab program and is targeting the beginning of May for a return.

Mike Sirotka, who had shoulder surgery last April, attempted to begin throwing in September but stopped when he felt soreness in November. He began throwing again in mid-January, but recently experienced a great deal of pain when throwing so they are running additional tests. Until the results of the tests are known, there is no schedule for his return.

Offense Notes: Carlos Delgado has had a stiff neck for the last week and missed the majority of the Spring Training games in that time. However, he is expected to fully recover by Opening Day. Lopez has missed time with a sore triceps. He is also expected to be fine to start the season. The reason I have been mentioning most injuries even when a player will return in time for Opening Day is because they may have a slow start without the Spring Training practice, and because strained muscle injuries have a habit of recurring during the season.

Toronto could also carry Chris Woodward in addition to or instead of Dave Berg. However, I felt that they would probably want to go with 12 pitchers to balance out the staff and allow them to keep Rule 5 pick Corey Thurman.

Pitching Notes: Escobar has had some mysterious numbness in his pitching arm in the past. He says he's fine and the move to relief helps to reduce his workload. However it is good to be cautious regarding any non-specific injury as you don't know what you're dealing with or how likely it is to return.

Division Ranking:
New York
Boston
Toronto
Baltimore
Tampa Bay

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I can't please all the people all of the time, but I am more than willing to read the comments of the pleased, the irate, and everyone in between. You can send your opinions to jess@rotohelp.com.
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