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February
27th
2002
Out of the Frying Pan
Rotohelp
A Complicated Twist

by Jessica Polko

Arizona Diamondback third baseman Matt Williams injured himself while fielding grounders on Monday. He fractured his left fibula approximately 6 inches above the ankle and dislocated his ankle. When he underwent surgery later that day, the doctors repaired the deltoid ligament in his inner ankle and inserted an eight-hole plate to secure the bone as well as a screw to hold the ligament connecting the fibula to the tibia.

Williams will be in a splint to allow for swelling for the next 10 days, followed by six weeks in a non-weight bearing full cast, and then six more weeks in a removable boot. After the time in the boot, Williams should be able to wear shoes. As soon as he can walk without a limp, he will be able to begin serious rehab with agility and strength training, which typically lasts two to three months. When you add on a minor league rehab assignment, he will likely be out at least 5 months and possibly more than 6 months.

Despite the fact that it's improbable that Williams will return before August, the Diamondbacks won't likely slip in their division because of his missing production. Williams' production has steadily dropped off in the last few seasons as injuries, even unpredictable ones such as this, become more and more a part of his yearly routine. However, Arizona would still be in trouble if they didn't possess a deep bench.

Greg Colbrunn has excelled in a pinch hitting role and deserves a shot at more at-bats. He's my pick to grab the playing time opened up by this accident. Craig Counsell should receive the majority of the 2B at-bats, but between Counsell and Jay Bell, whichever player isn't at second should see time at third. Additionally, while I don't think Danny Klassen, who was out all of last season with foot problems, should receive a large portion of the third base pie, he can pick up some of the slack left by the other infielders covering third. Klassen may run into a roster crunch with Junior Spivey. Spivey saw significant time at 2B last season and shows more upside than Klassen, so Spivey may be the player to grab those leftover at-bats. Watch where they play in Spring Training, as I believe Klassen has more experience at 3B than Spivey, which may give him the edge.

I'm always looking for ways to find Erubiel Durazo more at-bats, but I don't think this particular accident will help him. His only hope is that Brenly will decide that, with Williams' lost production, he can't afford to squander Durazo as a part time player. However, the chances of that happening are slim. Mark Grace's OPS is second among starters on the team only to Luis Gonzalez, and Danny Bautista just signed a multi-year deal, so the organization is committed to playing him. While the bench should allow Arizona to coast for half a season, I think that the Diamondbacks will seriously assess Williams' progress at the All-Star break and start looking to make a trade if it appears that he probably won't make it back before September.

The trouble with making a trade is that their farm system is wearing more than a little bit thin. Williams will also likely feel the need to push himself, and may wind up rushing, returning too soon, and insuring he'll be out for the rest of the season. Obviously the Diamondback's place in the standings will also play a roll in how they handle the situation. Arizona is still one of the most financially unstable organizations, and Jerry Colangelo has been warned about spending money he doesn't have, so I wouldn't expect them to spend much if they're out of the race.


Paul Lo Duca agreed to a three-year, $7.25M contract on Tuesday. Before his breakout season last year, Lo Duca hadn't spent more than a month or two in the majors at a time, so although he will be 30 in April, he would not have been arbitration-eligible until 2003. He will receive $380K in 2002, $2.7M in 2003, and $3.9M in 2004, as well as a $500K signing bonus. This contract will leave him with only one year of arbitration left before he becomes a free agent after the 2005 season.

He showed excellent plate discipline at every level of minor league ball, but his skills never received the acknowledgment necessary for him to stick in the majors. When given a shot at a full time job with the big league club, Lo Duca not only demonstrated his excellent plate discipline with a BB:K of 39:30 but also managed to convert his doubles' power into major league home runs.

Barring injury, there's every reason to believe that he should be able to repeat in 2002, as it appears to have been a lack of attention rather than a lack of talent that kept him from a full-time major league position. I think the Dodgers are likely wise to sign him now, before he has a chance to make a case before an arbiter. He was the second best offensive catcher in baseball last season with 44 Runs Created Above Position, just 5 below Mike Piazza and 14 above the next highest, Ivan Rodriguez at 30.

While there is some chance that he could falter, this gives them some cost certainty over the next few years. I also like the fact that the contract will run out one year before he becomes eligible for free agency, as that should give them a season to work out a second multi-year deal, if they remain interested at that time. However, as a result of Lo Duca being as old as he was when he broke into the majors, LA will almost certainly have him through the majority of his prime and then have the option of allowing him to leave when he starts his decline.

As for Lo Duca, he probably could have made more by holding off on a multi-year deal. However, this decision provides him with financial security should he for some reason suffer a rapid decline and not produce well enough to secure a large contract after this season.

Click here to read the previous article.

I can't please all the people all of the time, but I am more than willing to read the comments of the pleased, the irate, and everyone in between. You can send your opinions to jess@rotohelp.com.
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