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February
2nd
2002
Out of the Frying Pan
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Lofton Expectations

by Jessica Polko

Free Agent Kenny Lofton signed a one-year contract with the White Sox on Friday. He will immediately step into the centerfield vacancy opened up when Chicago traded Chris Singleton to Baltimore earlier this week.

Lofton will receive a base salary of $1.25 million and has the opportunity to earn an additional $375,000 in performance incentives. Another $1.4 million of bonus money rests on the White Sox's home attendance.

I don't think this move will work out well for the White Sox. Kenny Williams is under the impression he just paid for the Cleveland Indians' star who has foiled the White Sox for years and who can now step in and be the leadoff hitter the team needs. However, Lofton is no longer that player. He's had some injury troubles the last few years but generally continued to slip towards offensive ineffectiveness even during the times when he was healthy last season. A .322 OBP does not belong at the head of a lineup, and there's no reason to expect it to swing back up towards the .405 that he managed in 1999.

Aaron Rowand and Brian Simmons could have adequately handled center for Chicago. Top prospect Joe Borchard will be ready sometime this season and Willie Harris, the minor leaguer they picked up in the Singleton trade, should be ready by next season. Lofton may be a crowd pleaser and give hope to the attendees of the White Sox's fan fest held this weekend, but that hope is based on what Lofton used to be, and at 35, his aging body just isn't putting out the production it was a few years ago. He really needs to hope that fans are spurred into buying tickets before the season starts as a result of his signing, because after a few months of waiting for him to produce at the plate, they aren't going to be overly eager to help him earn that extra $1.4 million.


On Tuesday, Lance Berkman agreed to a three-year contract with the Houston Astros. Berkman, who is not even arbitration-eligible until next season, will reportedly receive $500,000 in 2002, $3.5M in 2003, and $6.5M in 2004, making the total contract worth $10.5 million.

I like this deal a lot from both sides. It's a great length, as it leaves Berkman with one-year of arbitration before free agency. Berkman can use that year to grab piles of cash from the Astros, and Houston has it available to work on a long-term contract. Had the Astros given him a longer deal, he almost certainly would have tested the free agent market, and if you make it any shorter, they have to worry about an additional year of arbitration.

Berkman's salary is high enough that he's receiving solid compensation for the production with which he'll be providing the team and low enough that if he slumps or suffers an injury, the Astros aren't completely up a creek with out a paddle. The money involved is far more reasonable than Richard Hidalgo's contract from last winter, especially considering that Berkman's success is built upon a more solid foundation of skills.

While I do think it likely that Berkman will see a slight downturn from the spectacular numbers he put up last season, there's no reason to expect he'll slip past his 2000 stats. He'll only be 26 this year, so it is highly likely that he will see another upward swing in the next few years and should level out for several years at a solid .315 BA, .405 OBP, and .620 SLG. The Astros were probably very smart to lock him up now through most of his prime seasons.


Randy Winn signed a one-year deal worth a reported $960,000 with Tampa Bay on Tuesday. The Devil Rays likely overpaid here for Winn's limited production. Given this is his first year of arbitration-eligibility, his salary will probably continue to climb, so the club should consider trading him now while his perceived value is still relatively high. Jason Tyner can provide almost as much production, so he should be able step into Winn's shoes until the team can sign someone else or until one of their toolsy outfield prospects pans out. Regardless, trading Winn is a much better idea than having both Winn and Tyner receiving significant numbers of at-bats in the outfield.

The Devil Rays also signed free agent Troy O'Leary to a minor league contract. Tampa Bay probably made a good move in signing O'Leary. While he hasn't done much lately to merit a guaranteed deal, he should compete with Jason Conti in Spring Training for an outfield job. Even if he doesn't make the club, he will provide them with AAA depth, though I expect him to receive at least 300 AB during 2002.


Oakland came to terms with their final arbitration-eligible player on Friday. The A's signed Jeremy Giambi to a $1.065 million, one-year contract. I suppose I agree with their decision to wait another year before offering him a long-term contract, but after he proves himself this season, they should not hesitate to lock him up for the rest of his arbitration and a few of his free agency years.

This year's deal includes two $35,000 bonuses, one each for reaching 450 and 500 plate appearances, and I sincerely hope that the A's give him an opportunity to reach both incentives. He has almost as much potential as his brother Jason but really needs to stay healthy and receive the plate appearances to develop. My main concern about the majority of their off-season acquisitions has been that Jeremy will have too much competition for at-bats and not receive the playing time he needs and deserves.

In other Oakland news, the A's grabbed Allen Levrault off waivers from the Brewers on Friday. Levrault shouldn't make the team given the multitudes of other relief options already available, but he does have some potential and offers decent AAA insurance for a club a little thin on back-up starters.

In order to add Levrault, the A's had to DFA Rob Ryan. However, the A's have more than enough back-up outfielders, and Ryan doesn't have a particularly high ceiling. Since its possible that Ryan could even slip through waivers, this appears to be a win-win situation.

Click here to read the previous article.

I can't please all the people all of the time, but I am more than willing to read the comments of the pleased, the irate, and everyone in between. You can send your opinions to jess@rotohelp.com.
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