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December
17th
2001
Out of the Frying Pan
Rotohelp
From the Bay to Shea

by Jessica Polko

On Sunday, the Mets and the Giants completed a deal that sent LHP Shawn Estes to New York for OF Tsuyoshi Shinjo and IF Desi Relaford. The trade seems to favor the Mets until you look at what it means for both teams.

Relaford will most likely serve as a back-up infielder for the Giants, but he has the ability to start at any of the non-catcher infield positions, should San Francisco need or want him there. The Giants are weak at the corners. Both Pedro Feliz and J.T. Snow have platoon splits, so something might be worked out between Ramon E. Martinez and Relaford with Jeff Kent playing more 1B. Relaford's flexibility fits nicely with the versatile Giant roster.

Shinjo can handle any outfield position defensively, but his bat really shouldn't be in a lineup full-time. He has also experienced some quadriceps problems, so a complete season of playing full-time might not even be a realistic goal for him. He needs to remain a platoon or fourth outfielder and not one of a set starting three.

What San Francisco really needs is to re-sign Bonds. The Giants will have a shell of an offense if they don't re-sign Barry. Dusty Baker has been the glue holding this team together for the last few years. His managerial style revolves around having the players in his 2-3-4 line-up slots set with Rich Aurilla, Bonds, and Jeff Kent. He can then maneuver his other players around that core to theoretically optimize their strengths and minimize their weaknesses.

With Bonds in his traditional lineup spot and playing LF, Baker should be able to work his mojo and optimize Shinjo's performance. I would suspect that there would be some kind of platoon worked out between Shinjo and Shawon Dunston in RF. In center field the club has Marvin Bernard and Ruben Rivera, both capable fielders without any substantial offensive performance at the major league level.

Without Bonds, the heart of that core is gone and the system disintegrates. The team will no longer be jockeying for a playoff position; they will be languishing at the bottom of an otherwise very competitive division. Barry is old enough that they're going to have to start moving towards a new look eventually. However at this point, they have not done enough to prepare themselves for his departure to be able to dump him, so they shouldn't let money stand between them and a few more good years from perhaps the second best player in the history of the game. Hopefully Estes was dealt because the organization is trying to cut payroll to make room for Bonds.

Rookie Kurt Ainsworth is the reason that Frisco was able to even consider moving Estes. The 23-year-old righty should be ready to take possession of the number 5 starters' slot straight out of spring training. Re-signing Jason Schmidt gives the team a solid pitcher to share the top of the rotation with Russ Ortiz, and veteran workhorses Livan Hernandez and Kirk Rueter fill out the middle of a promising staff.

With this deal, San Francisco has added two players who provide several more options for a manager skilled in maximizing matchups. All they lose is a good young pitcher about to become very expensive, for whom they have a younger, more cost-effective replacement ready.

Now let's look at the Mets' side of this deal.

New York has recommitted to playing Rey Ordonez full-time, a decision that remains a really bad idea. Ordonez is an offensive black hole, and no amount of defensive ability can counteract the runs he prevents New York from scoring. Of course they still could make another move that would correct this problem, but they won't bother since they don't even recognize the problem's existence.

Including Shinjo in the deal guarantees that New York will need to acquire another outfielder. A deal for Jeromy Burnitz of Milwaukee is still being discussed. They were already talking of trading away some of their pitching, but it's almost inevitable now that they've added Estes. Glendon Rusch has been first up on the auction block for a while. Milwaukee has a couple of young pitchers with great upside, but they also have a lot of injury problems, so the Brewers might be open to a pitching package for Burnitz.

Juan Gonzalez is still a possibility, though they have less money to spend after adding Estes and the approximately $6 million he will receive in arbitration. If they're looking to keep it cheap, then Matt Stairs might be a good sign. Chicago primarily played Stairs at 1B, but he's really better suited to be the lefty side of a LF platoon. The Mets were originally thought to be one of the teams that would be in the bidding for Bonds, but he definitely appears way too rich for their taste.

Unlike David Justice, the Mets plan to hold on to Estes, since GM Steve Phillips seems to have developed quite a taste for lefty pitchers. Of their projected starters, only Kevin Appier and Steve Trachsel are righties. Satoru Komiyama, Grant Roberts, and Pat Strange are also righties, but they are long shots for rotation spots. Al Leiter, Glendon Rusch, Bruce Chen, Adam Walker, and Mike Bacsik are all lefties.

In summary, the Mets traded away two players whose continued presence in New York would have made for a far more solid and deep Mets' team in return for another lefty starter with a sizable price tag. Estes may be a better player than Relaford and Shinjo put together, but he doesn't do nearly as much for this team.

Steve Phillips has made several good trades this off-season. After this one, he needs to refocus, and finish construction on what has at times appeared to be one of the better teams in baseball. However, if he continues to waste time, energy, and cash on these pointless trades after last year's reliever binge, the club will wind up in a hole adjacent to Baltimore.

Click here to read the previous article.

I can't please all the people all of the time, but I am more than willing to read the comments of the pleased, the irate, and everyone in between. You can send your opinions to jess@rotohelp.com.
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