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December
3rd
2001
Out of the Frying Pan
   
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Where there's Smoltz, there's...

by Jessica Polko

John Smoltz and the Atlanta Braves agreed to terms on Sunday to a 3-year, $30 million contract with a $12 million club option for a fourth year. This move is somewhat of a pleasant surprise as many reports indicated Smoltz would seek out a more profitable deal with a team that would want him to start. However, it was always known that the pitcher had strong ties to the Atlanta team and community. He lives in Atlanta year-round and had already expressed his intentions not to relocate even if he changed teams.

Although Smoltz would have liked to return to the Braves rotation, his home for the last 13 years, the new deal is a closer's contract. Atlanta has been very straightforward with their intention to leave Smoltz in the closing role he took on after struggling in his traditional starting role following his return from Tommy John surgery last season. In fact, the $100,000 per start performance bonus appears prohibitive to the club changing its mind about starting Smoltz.

With this move, the Braves number one off-season priority is wrapped up, and they can now focus on fine-tuning of the rest of the club. Given that John Burkett's agent has yet to speak with Atlanta this off-season, it seems doubtful that the 37-year-old righty will return to the Braves for the 2002 season. I believe this puts additional pressure on the club to re-sign Kevin Millwood before he becomes eligible for free agency, likely after the 2003 season.

Millwood did suffer from shoulder problems last year that kept him out for the majority of the season and had a rough start before going on the DL, but after he returned to the roster his performance improved to his previous form with the exception of a few scattered starts. The Braves could turn his injury problems to their advantage and inexpensively lock up an above average #3 starter, who has even greater potential, for a number of years.

The bottom of the rotation can easily coast for a few seasons. In 2002 Odalis Perez and Jason Marquis will be capable in the 4 and 5 slots, and the Braves have several prospects in their minors who will be ready to join the big league club in a couple years.

At the top of the rotation, both the contracts of Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine expire after the 2002 season. The Braves should have some payroll flexibility opening when B.J. Surhoff's contract expires at season's end, and after 2003 they will be free of Brian Jordan's deal. By replacing these two relatively over-priced players with some of the young talent arriving from their minors (Chipper Jones and one of the young infielders will have to shift to the outfield), Atlanta should be able to re-sign their rotation anchors without a noticeable payroll increase. Both pitchers will probably be inclined to stay with the Braves, making the negotiation process easier for all parties.

Smoltz will anchor the bullpen. Mike Remlinger, their lefty setup man, is under contract for another year. The rest of their experienced relievers have varying numbers of years left before they are eligible for free agency, including Jose Cabrera in 1-2 years, Kerry Ligtenberg in 2-3 years, and Kevin McGlinchy in 3-4 years. Lefty Damian Moss was first called up in April but had to go on the DL in May because of circulation problems, though he was back in the majors in September when he received a start. The Braves will likely break him in as a reliever like Perez and Marquis before moving him into the rotation. Tim Spooneybarger, who also received a September cup of coffee, will be up at some later point in the 2002 season if he doesn't break camp with the Braves.

I included a short review of the Braves' offense when I reported on Andruw Jones' contract extension, but I will recap here. Sophomore Marcus Giles will be playing 2B again next season. Rafael Furcal should be back at short with no lingering issues from his shoulder dislocation last year other than an intense incentive not to slide headfirst. Chipper Jones should remain at 3B for 2002, but look for him to move to the outfield in the next couple years. When Chipper does move, prospect Wilson Betemit is the popular pick to take over at 3B.

Most of the Braves' prospects are at infield positions, but this just means that they should have the flexibility to move to less strenuous defensive positions when they find themselves blocked by the guys who made it through the system a little quicker. I would look for SS/3B Kelly Johnson (estimated ML arrival 2004) to move to right field if the Braves choose to utilize the products of their minors themselves, rather than trade some of the young crop for immediate outfield help.

Despite Julio Franco's late season success, the elderly 1B cannot be expected to cover Atlanta's right side corner of the infield for very long, even if they do re-sign him for 2002. Wes Helms can fill the position adequately for a few years, but long-term the Braves need to move Chipper or one of their prospects to 1B or look for help outside the organization.

The catching situation in Atlanta is also up in the air as long-time backstop Javy Lopez is a free agent this year. New payroll restrictions brought about by an increasingly penny-pinching ownership in AOL/Time Warner makes it unlikely they will re-sign Lopez. The catcher himself has expressed doubts regarding the likelihood of his return, and his recent injury problems don't provide any extra incentive to the Braves to ante up the necessary cash. Greg Maddux's personal catcher, Eddie Perez is another Atlanta free agent. However, during his recent DL time Paul Bako stepped in to fill that role, leaving Perez's position with the club in jeopardy.

Bako is an acceptable back-up, but if they don't re-sign Lopez they will need to look for a starter. Steve Torrealba, who was up briefly at the end of 2001, should return to the minors to gain some additional maturity but could probably cut it in a limited major league role in 2002. If Charles Johnson chooses to exercise his out clause today, he might be a perfect fit for the Braves. Who knows, maybe Maddux would even pitch to him.

The bench should take care of itself for the foreseeable future. They have a few acceptable guys hanging around now and the young players cycling up from the minors should fill in most holes.

Overall the club's exceptional farm system has put them in a position to maintain their past dominance in the NL East. All GM John Schuerholz will need to do is continue to hold onto the club's core players. That task is not altogether easy, but is far simpler than assembling a winning team from scratch.

Click here to read the previous article.

I can't please all the people all of the time, but I am more than willing to read the comments of the pleased, the irate, and everyone in between. You can send your opinions to jess@rotohelp.com.
 
 
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