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November
26th
2001
Out of the Frying Pan
   
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A Rolen Scott Gathers No Moss

by Jessica Polko

Following a somewhat slow news weekend, I've decided to cover a few slightly older items until the news picks up with fresh signings or more depressing owners' stuff.

A week and a half ago, Scott Rolen informed the Phillies and the public that he wants to go all the way to free agency. He is not interested in signing a contract extension with Philadelphia before the end of the 2002 season when he is first eligible to become a free agent.

Philadelphia tried to complete a deal with the Gold Glove third baseman before the season, but talks broke down over Rolen's desire to include an out option that could be exercised in the event that the Phillies ceased to stay competitive. The spring offer was in the neighborhood of $140 million for 10 years, with the last 3 seasons being option years.

Although Philadelphia GM Ed Wade has repeatedly stated that he is not interested in trading the star player, this latest development may force him to take a harder look at the possibility. However, the very same desire to test the free agent market in 2002 that is currently preventing Rolen from signing a contract extension with the Phillies now may interfere with potential trades. Teams would likely want Rolen to agree to a long-term deal before they would give up any significant talent.

If Wade does decide to try to trade Rolen, there will be quite a bit of interest. The Phillies are not expected to deal the third baseman within their division. Due to the location of Rolen's home in Indiana, the Chicago Cubs and St. Louis Cardinals have been the two most mentioned clubs in discussions of possible trade scenarios. Provided Philadelphia can obtain their reportedly desired package of a high quality starter, an above average bat, and at least one other player, the trade and inevitable loss of Rolen might be worth it.

A worthwhile trade involving the Cubs would likely include Kerry Wood and Bill Mueller. Felix Heredia would be another player Chicago could include to sweeten the deal, replacing Dennis Cook in the Phillie bullpen without really hurting the Cubs.

The Cubs haven't had a stable third baseman since Ron Santo, and although it seemed that the organization had numerous prospects at the position a year or two ago, they have since dealt or moved most of them to new positions. Wood continues to be a top-notch starter, but his injury history and cocky attitude, combined with the young pitching talent coming up from the club's minor league system, make him expendable. Kerry will also soon be eligible for free agency and will probably demand a contract larger than Chicago will want to offer, assuming he'll even listen to a Cubs' offer after his problems with pitching coach Oscar Acosta's departure.

Mueller is a good third baseman with below average power who could fill in for a couple of years while the Phillies wait for some of their high-A prospects to mature or they search for another option (San Diego should be ready to deal a few of their horde in the next year or two).

A St. Louis trade might involve Matt Morris and Placido Polanco as well as a third marginal player or low prospect. Despite Bud Smith's major league inexperience, I believe the Cardinals would prefer to trade Morris as he is a few years older, much closer to free agency, and has lost over a year to arm surgery. Philadelphia is in need of a rotation anchor to stabilize their young staff for the next few years, so they would also potentially prefer Morris.

While I question Polanco's viability as a full time position player, he has certainly impressed many people in the game over the past few years. Placido would probably be able to hold the position until someone else could be found. Alternately, the Phillies could try to snatch Renteria away from the Cardinals and move him to third base, effectively filling the position for several years to come.

After looking at these two options, I don't find either one to be quite what the Phillies need. Let's take a look at the rest of the organization.

The team is fairly well off at catcher provided Mike Lieberthal can remain healthy. Johnny Estrada, who was up for almost all of portion of 2001, could easily take over in a few years, especially if he has the opportunity to return to AAA for a short time and improve his strike zone judgment.

Travis Lee needs to show more power at 1B, or there will be no reason for the club to resist moving Pat Burrell in from LF. Whether in left or at first, Burrell should continue to develop into the all-star everyone hopes to get with the first overall pick in the draft (especially considering the amount of money he received).

Marlon Anderson isn't eligible for free agency for a couple more years and should suffice at 2B in the mean time. Prospect Chase Utley should be just about ready to take over when Anderson leaves.

Rookie Jimmy Rollins had a great year, one that likely would have earned him the ROY in many other seasons. He still needs to learn to take a walk, but should be their leadoff hitter for years to come.

In the outfield, Bobby Abreu is signed through the end of 2003. He should be a centerpiece of their line up at least until then, and the Phillies should try to work out an extension. If they are unable to re-sign Abreu or if they wind up moving Burrell to 1B, Jason Michaels should be arriving from the majors in the next year or so. He is not a grade A prospect, but has shown solid power potential against good competition and could at the very least serve as a decent 4th outfielder.

They need a replacement for centerfielder Doug Glanville as soon as possible. Marlon Byrd should be ready for a September call up this year and could start in 2003, but he might start even sooner if he impresses in spring training. Given the earlier discussion regarding the Cardinals, it is difficult not to recall the J.D. Drew fiasco. If the club had only signed Drew when they drafted him in 1997, the Phillies would have an all-star CF who could anchor their lineup.

As previously alluded, Philadelphia's farm system has provided them with a wealth of starting pitching talent. Some of it is already in the majors (Dave Coggin, Brandon Duckworth, and Nelson Figueroa) and some of it will arrive in the next year or two (Brad Baisley and Brett Myers).

The Phillies should probably consider trading Robert Person, especially if they can acquire a quality starter through free agency or trade. Person will be 33 in January and has racked up enough innings in the last few years to be an injury risk.

Looking at the club as a whole, it would be best if they could re-sign Rolen to a long-term contract at third base. Given that they really want another shot at that, they just might have to wait until after he becomes a free agent at the end of 2002. If they choose to trade him before then, I would look at teams who are willing to trade their own very good third basemen in return.

Provided that Colorado was interested in dumping some salary and that Philadelphia felt it could take on some large contracts, a deal of Jeff Cirillo and Mike Hampton for Scott Rolen could work well for both clubs.

Meanwhile, Rolen is without a contract for the 2002 season. He and the Phillies will have to come to an agreement on a one-year deal, or go through arbitration.

Click here to read the previous article.

I can't please all the people all of the time, but I am more than willing to read the comments of the pleased, the irate, and everyone in between. You can send your opinions to jess@rotohelp.com.
 
 
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