Today's Fantasy Rx

2012 Major League Rule Five Draft Review

While the current iteration of the Rule 5 draft lacks both the pizzazz and depth of the drafts that included MLB award winners like Johan Santana, Joakim Soria, and Josh Hamilton, we continue to believe that the Rule 5 draft remains a great chance for teams to add roster depth by targeting position players from AAA or AA to fill secondary roles, such as backup catcher, utility infielder, and reserve outfielder.

Teams generally should target pitchers who spent 2012 no lower than high-A, then slot the youngsters in long relief, as lefty specialists, or even in middle or short relief if the pitcher's performance warrants. Selecting reasonably high-upside prospects adds even more value to such picks. Ideally, teams probably should select one backup position player at a position of need and then two pitchers, one right-hander and one southpaw. While several of the selected players almost certainly will fail to remain with their new teams, and only two teams drafted into the optional second round, a few organizations potentially found very useful hidden gems despite increasing industry skepticism regarding the raison d'etre for the draft altogether.

Round One

1. Houston: Josh Fields, RH Reliever, BOS; 27, B:R, T:R.
1-0 and 4 Saves on a 19:2 K:BB in 13.2 IP over 10 G
with 8 H, 0 HR, a .70 G-F, and a 0.00 ERA for AAA Pawtucket(IL).
3-3 and 8 Saves on a 59:16 K:BB in 44.2 IP over 32 G
with 30 H, 4 HR, a 1.03 G-F, and a 2.62 ERA for AA Portland(EL).
Chance of remaining on 25-man roster/DL throughout 2013: 95%.
Probable Role if Kept: Short relief.
Fantasy Potential: Inexplicably left unprotected by Boston only a year after they acquired him from Seattle with Erik Bedard, this former 20th overall pick retains a live arm and plenty of upside in anyone's bullpen. Right now, Houston's likely relief corps features pitchers with less than 500 combined big league innings, giving Fields virtually a guaranteed job if he doesn't faceplant during camp. Sam Demel and Hector Ambriz also possess live arms and late-inning experience, and the recently-signed Jose Veras could benefit from his veteran aura. However, an impressive spring could thrust Fields right into the closer's role, which would make him one of the few minor league closers in recent memory to retain that role in the majors.

Houston's move to the AL complicates the situation a little, as the team's weak defense could leave any pitcher exposed against the tougher lineups. Fields likely won't have much value in any league that doesn't count saves, but in traditional roto, a strong run at the closer's job could make Fields one of the most valuable Rule 5 picks in a few years.

2. Chicago Cubs: Hector Rondon, RH Starter, CLE; 24, B:R, T:R.
0-0 on a 3:1 K:BB in 4 IP over 2 G
with 4 H, 0 HR, a 1.00 G-F, and a 2.25 ERA for AA Akron(EL).
0-0 on a 6:1 K:BB in 3 IP over 2 GS(2G)
with 0 H, 0 HR, a 0.00 G-F, and a 0.00 ERA for R Indians(AZL).
Chance of remaining on 25-man roster/DL throughout 2013: 60%.
Probable Role if Kept: Long relief.
Fantasy Potential: On the cusp of the majors while ranking as the Indians' #7 prospect after three fantastic campaigns at the close of the last decade, multiple elbow surgeries limited Rondon to a total of 13 appearances over the last three seasons. A strong effort by Rondon this fall for the Venezuelan Winter League team managed by Cubs' coach Franklin Font apparently convinced Chicago to take this seemingly risky gamble. However, with the Cubs firmly entrenched in the talent-acquisition stage of their rebuilding project, Rondon seems a fairly sensible lottery ticket, with the potential to develop into either a power reliever or even a solid starter.

Unfortunately for fantasy owners, Rondon's extensive injury history, coupled with his uncertain role in the Cubs' bullpen, makes him a poor option for most teams. Unless he unexpectedly reclaims his former skills while remaining healthy, giving him a shot to claim a late-inning role in Chicago, you won't want Rondon unless trolling for short-term roster filler.

3. Colorado: Danny Rosenbaum, LH Starter, WAS; 25, B:R, T:L.
8-10 on a 99:39 K:BB in 155.1 IP over 26 GS
with 164 H, 8 HR, a 4.21 G-F, and a 3.94 ERA for AA Harrisburg(EL).
Chance of remaining on 25-man roster/DL throughout 2013: 70%.
Probable Role if Kept: Long reliever.
Fantasy Potential: Despite a new manager and pitching coach in Colorado seemingly ushering out the 4-man (and often 4-inning) rotation, Rosenbaum's groundball proclivity and solid control nevertheless make him an apparently logical fit to relieve young right-handed starters like Jhoulys Chacin and Juan Nicasio. Conversely, considering that Rosenbaum appeared quite hittable in the Eastern League, the move into Coors looks like another foolish attempt at applying the Neagleian dialectic twelve years after a similar pitcher signed in Colorado. Thesis: a soft-tossing control artist can succeed in Denver by keeping the ball off-speed and on the ground. Antithesis: Denny Neagle, 2001-03, pre-solicitation.

Synthesis: even if Rosenbaum somehow flouts history by succeeding for the Rockies, do not risk employing him on any fantasy team due to the obvious downside of any Colorado pitcher without an established role and history of success in Denver.

4. Minnesota: Ryan Pressly, RH Reliever, BOS; 24, B:R, T:R.
2-2 on a 21:10 K:BB in 27.2 IP over 14 G
with 23 H, 2 HR, a 1.81 G-F, and a 2.93 ERA for Portland(EL).
5-3 on a 61:26 K:BB in 76 IP over 12 GS(20G)
with 86 H, 9 HR, a 1.82 G-F, and a 6.28 ERA for A+ Salem(Car).
Chance of remaining on 25-man roster/DL throughout 2013: 30%.
Probable Role if Kept: Middle relief.
Fantasy Potential: Minnesota could have chosen one of several intriguing potential #4 starters, but instead of trying to find the next Johan Santana or even Scott Diamond, the Twins instead attempted to reinforce their bullpen with this pick (and filled their rotation with veterans in subsequent weeks). Perhaps Pressly's move to the bullpen last summer will presage continued success, though nothing in his skill set really screams "Twins' pitcher" to me. He lacks excellent control and never really flourished in the minors. Since Minnesota's roster already features eight extremely strong contenders for seven bullpen jobs, Pressly will need an outstanding spring to beat out his far more impressive competition.

Only a few respectable scouting reports keep me from dismissing Pressley entirely for 2013, though I still see nothing here to warrant any serious fantasy consideration and will be surprised if he sticks where the far more qualified Terry Doyle failed in a similar position a year ago.

5. Cleveland: Chris McGuiness, 1B, TEX; 24, B:L, T:L.
122/456 for .268/.366/.474 with 23 H, 77 RBI, 65 R, 0/1 SB%,
and a 69:107 BB:K for AA Frisco(TL).
Chance of remaining on 25-man roster/DL throughout 2013: 90%.
Probable Role if Kept: Starting DH/1B.
Fantasy Potential: None of Cleveland's minor league 1B posted better MLE stats than McGuiness, making him a perfectly logical pickup with the potential to exceed the .702 OPS posted by Tribe DHs last year (and vastly superior to their .675 OPS at 1B). After a very strong AA campaign, McGuiness won the AFL MVP, highlighted by a league-leading 27 RBIs, five more than anyone else in the circuit. His general production reminds me of Jay Gibbons, who flourished as a Rule 5 pick for Baltimore a decade ago. The Indians will rejoice if McGuiness approaches that success, and as the primary return obtained from the Red Sox in the second Jarrod Saltalamacchia deal, the Rangers may rue leaving him exposed to the Rule 5.

Major league pitchers may succeed in keeping McGuiness from continuing his growth as a hitter in Cleveland. Jason Giambi also might rediscover how to hit outside of Colorado. However, if McGuiness can avoid those scenarios, he'll provide the Indians with a cheap left-handed bat with the potential to give savvy fantasy owners 20 homers and 75 RBIs, making him a superb late-round pick in almost any format.

6. Miami: Alfredo Silverio, OF, LAD; 25, B:R, T:R.
No 2012 stats.
Chance of remaining on 25-man roster/DL throughout 2013: 80%.
Probable Role if Kept: Reserve outfielder.
Fantasy Potential: An off-season car accident sidelined Silverio for the entire year, and after re-signing with the Dodgers on a minor league deal, the Marlins snagged him with their pick. In 2011, he registered an impressive .306/.340/.542 performance in 533 AB for AA Chattanooga(SL), along with double-digit homers steals, and even triples. That performance, building upon solid work at lower levels, certainly suggests that a healthy Silverio could gain significant playing time in Miami, especially with only Giancarlo Stanton guaranteed a starting job right now.

Unfortunately, while Silverio may possess more upside than any other outfielder on their 40-man roster, he first needs to prove his health before you should consider him as anything more than a late-round flyer.

7. Boston: Jeff Kobernus, 2B, WAS; 24, B:R, T:R.
Traded to Detroit for OF Justin Henry. 93/330 for .282/.325/.333 with 1 HR, 19 RBI, 41 R, 42/53 SB%,
and a 19:57 BB:K for AA Harrisburg(EL).
Chance of remaining on 25-man roster/DL throughout 2013: 30%.
Probable Role if Kept: Reserve infielder and pinch-runner.
Fantasy Potential: If Kobernus could handle another infield position, he definitely would slot behind Ramon Santiago as an excellent sixth infielder for the Tigers. His speed could prove particularly valuable given that the Tigers will start no less than four regulars who could benefit from a late-inning pinch-runner. Other than Santiago, the club also lacks any obvious choice for that last infield spot, so a good spring easily could propel Kobernus onto the 25-man roster and the fantasy radar of anyone looking for cheap speed at MIF.

Yet, his consistently weak minor league OBPs leave me quite concerned regarding his overall offensive profile, relegating Kobernus to end-round flyer status unless you hear plenty of positive commentary from Tigers' management during spring training.

8. New York Mets: Kyle Lobstein, LH Starter, TB; 23, B:L, T:L.
Sold to Detroit.
8-7 on a 129:69 K:BB in 144 IP over 27 GS
with 140 H, 12 H, a 1.35 G-F, and a 4.06 ERA for AA Montgomery(SL).
Chance of remaining on 25-man roster/DL throughout 2013: 15%.
Probable Role if Kept: Long relief.
Fantasy Potential: The Tigers effectively landed back-to-back picks here before passing on their own turn, but unlike Kobernus, who only needs a strong spring to win a job, Lobstein will face a rougher road. With six major league caliber starters already on the roster (and either Porcello or Smyly already destined for the bullpen barring a trade), Lobstein doesn't really fit as either a #5 starter or long reliever. However, if Smyly wins the fifth starter's job, the Tigers could use a LH middle reliever, and as a former 2nd rd pick by the Rays (and 47th overall in 2008), Lobstein possesses the pedigree to continue succeeding at higher levels.

If injuries unexpectedly open a rotation slot for Lobstein, he could prove surprisingly successful, but barring that development, he lacks the obvious upside as a reliever to warrant your interest as anything more than roster filler.

9. Arizona: Starling Peralta, RH Starter, CHC; 22, B:R, T:R.
5-8 on an 86:42 K:BB in 99.1 IP over 17 GS(20G)
with 80 H, 11 HR, a 1.97 G-F, and a 3.44 ERA for A Peoria(Mid).
Chance of remaining on 25-man roster/DL throughout 2013: 10%.
Probable Role if Kept: Mop-up man.
Fantasy Potential: If a pitching-desperate full-rebuild club like the Cubs didn't bother protecting Peralta, he certainly doesn't seem to fit somewhere with far more major league-ready young pitching. Arizona already seems likely to relegate Josh Collmenter back to the bullpen, and that move still would leave seven viable starters competing for rotation jobs. Nothing in Peralta's profile suggests he belongs above high-A right now, as pitchers who need four years in the Dominican League and two more in low-A just should not jump to the majors barring extraordinary scouting reports.

As Peralta lacks those plaudits, avoid him indefinitely, especially if he unexpectedly breaks camp with the Diamondbacks.

10. Philadelphia: Ender Inciarte, OF, ARI; 22, B:L, T:L.
79/248 for .319/.377/.419 with 1 HR, 17 RBI, 46 R, 28/36 SB%,
and a 22:32 BB:K for A+ Visalia(Cal).
66/225 for .293/.375/.422 with 1 HR, 30 RBI, 36 R, 18/22 SB%,
and a 31:31 BB:K for A South Bend(Mid).
Chance of remaining on 25-man roster/DL throughout 2013: 60%.
Probable Role if Kept: Fifth outfielder.
Fantasy Potential: With Juan Pierre and Shane Victorino departed and the club ready to hold open auditions in the outfield this spring, the Phillies, who added utilityman Michael Martinez here two years ago, once again appear ready to break camp with a Rule 5 pick on the roster. Inciarte brings the raw speed missing from Philly's bench, and with plodders like Darin Ruf and Delmon Young in contention for everyday jobs, Inciarte could prove quite useful. He admittedly seems a little redundant with the far more experienced Ben Revere now on the roster, but Inciarte possesses the skill set to carve out fairly decent value in a limited role, given his obvious speed, defensive skills, plate discipline, and good contact rate.

If the rebuilding Phillies want to counter the rising strikeout tide with old school speed players, Inciarte could be a perfect fit for both their bench and your fifth outfielder's slot wherever you need steals.

11. Chicago White Sox: Angel Sanchez, IF, LAA; 29, B:R, T:R.
48/107 for 320/.390/.407 with 5 HR, 45 RBI, 48 R, 7/10 SB%,
and a 40:25 BB:K for AAA Oklahoma City(PCL).
Chance of remaining on 25-man roster/DL throughout 2013: 90%.
Probable Role if Kept: Reserve infielder.
Fantasy Potential: Every year some team seems to grab a recently-signed veteran when they seemingly just could have given him a 40-man roster spot a month earlier. Chicago's trade of Eduardo Escobar to the Twins leaves them bereft of obvious backup infielders capable of covering shortstop, so Sanchez seems certain to spend the year in that role after registering decent plate discipline and averages in the hitter-friendly PCL.

Of course, the same limited skill set that left Sanchez in the minors all last season after spending the previous two seasons on Houston's bench hasn't developed, leaving him without any obvious power, speed, or value to a fantasy team as anything more than low-risk, very low-upside roster filler.

12. Baltimore: T.J. McFarland, LH Starter, CLE; 23, B:L, T:L.
8-6 on a 55:33 K:BB in 102.2 IP over 17 GS
with 112 H, 9 HR, a 2.59 G-F, and a 4.82 ERA for AAA Columbus(IL).
8-2 on a 41:12 K:BB in 60.1 IP over 10 GS
with 61 H, 1 HR, a 3.42 G-F, and a 2.69 ERA for AA Akron(EL).
Chance of remaining on 25-man roster/DL throughout 2013: 65%.
Probable Role if Kept: Long relief.
Fantasy Potential: Though he tied for the minor league lead in wins with 16 and received recognition as the pitcher with the best control in the entire system, McFarland never received a look from the pitching-needy Indians and somehow didn't even merit protection from the Rule 5. Their loss appears the Orioles' gain, as McFarland's primary skill of generating an abundance of groundballs should play perfectly in front of Baltimore's excellent infield defense. Now, with nearly a dozen other rotation candidates, McFarland likely will not earn a starting job this spring. He also lacks the skill set to flourish in either a short relief or specialist role.

However, the Orioles' current management team appears particularly good at extracting the benefits from players with limited skills, making McFarland an intriguing option for Buck Showalter's pitching staff, albeit not one likely to register positive fantasy value in almost any format.

13. Texas: Coty Woods, RH Reliever, COL; 24, B:R, T:R.
1-2 and 11 Saves on a 13:11 K:BB in 20.2 IP over 23 G
with 24 H, 4 HR, a 1.86 G-F, and a 7.40 ERA for AAA Colorado Springs(PCL).
3-2 and 16 Saves on a 34:8 K:BB in 35.2 IP over 38 G
with 26 H, 1 HR, a 4.50 G-F, and a 0.76 ERA for AA Tulsa(TL).
Chance of remaining on 25-man roster/DL throughout 2013: 25%.
Probable Role if Kept: Middle relief.
Fantasy Potential: With well over a dozen more experienced options available for the Rangers' bullpen, Woods faces effectively insurmountable odds to win a roster spot. As a submariner, Texas clearly wants him to fill the role of departed Rule 5 find Darren O'Day, but Woods' sheer awfulness at Colorado Springs, in a comparable overall environment to Dallas, leaves me little hope that he belongs in the majors right now.

Even if he unexpectedly wins a big league job, he stands virtually no chance to accumulate more than a token win or save, making him a terrible fantasy option in any format.

Round Two

1. Houston: Nate Freiman, 1B, SD; 26, B:R, T:R.
154/516 for .298/.370/.502 with 24 HR, 105 RBI, 80 R, 0/2 SB%,
and a 49:95 BB:K for AA San Antonio(TL).
Chance of remaining on 25-man roster/DL throughout 2013: 60%.
Probable Role if Kept: Platoon 1B/DH.
Fantasy Potential: Not content to land the most prepared pitcher for the majors in the first round, Houston might have landed the most prepared hitter as well in the 6'8" Freiman, who's averaged 23 HR and 108 RBI over the last two years before starting for Israel in September's WBC qualifier. Admittedly Freiman's advanced age gave him a definite advantage against lower-level pitching, but MLE averages of .281/.344/.473 suggest he belongs in the majors right now. Those marks actually make him a better bet right now than Chris Carter, just acquired a few weeks ago from Oakland despite owning a remarkably similar skill profile to Freiman. Absent Carter, Freiman might have blossomed as one of the few reliable power threats in Houston's lineup, but while he still should win a roster spot, Carter, Brett Wallace, and Carlos Pena likely will take most of the 1B/DH at-bats.

Despite his currently limited role, keep an eye on Freiman, since if he gets the chance to play against more than just southpaws, he could blossom into a $15-20 player very quickly.

2. Miami: Brauilo Lara, LH Starter, TB; 24, B:L, T:L.
6-10 on an 82:58 K:BB in 112 IP over 21 GS(25G)
with 123 H, 11 HR, a 1.39 G-F, and a 5.71 ERA for A+ Charlotte(FSL).
Chance of remaining on 25-man roster/DL throughout 2013: 20%.
Probable Role if Kept: Long relief.
Fantasy Potential: Like the Tigers with Kyle Lobstein, Miami seemingly added a Rays' pitching prospect without the proper profile to deserve a spot on his new club's big league roster at this time. Unlike Lobstein, who could have flourished on a starter-needy team like the Marlins, Lara lacks any obvious preparedness for the majors. He apparently impressed scouts in the Dominican Winter League, giving Miami hope that he could excel in a more limited role out of the pen.

Of course, despite the Marlins' open auditions for pitching jobs this spring, Lara's command issues make him a particularly poor fantasy bet for 2013, likely to struggle in the short-term regardless of any potential long-term upside as a LH bullpen weapon.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Of last year's 12 Rule 5 picks, five finished the year in the majors, including both of Houston's selections, Rhiner Cruz and Marwin Gonzalez. Seattle also scored with lefty reliever Lucas Luetge (though he tired later in the year), and Baltimore's Ryan Flaherty even saw 11 at-bats in the playoffs, posting a respectable .818 OPS in the limited action. However, Lendy Castillo rarely remained healthy or effective for the Cubs, and Eric Komatsu barely managed to spend a few weeks with both the Cardinals and Twins before returning to the Nationals.

After missing all year with injuries, Yankees' southpaw Cesar Cabral and Diamondbacks' infielder Gustavo Nunez, the latter claimed off waivers from Pittsburgh this fall, will retain their Rule 5 status headed into 2013, though neither appears particularly likely to break camp after a lost year of development.

Realistically, none of last year's Rule 5 picks look like particularly impressive pickups. Minnesota might have landed a sleeper with the #2 pick last year, especially given all their pitching woes this summer, but the Twins allowed Terry Doyle to return to the White Sox due to a poor camp. Doyle opened the year on fire, excelling at AAA Charlotte, where he posted a 6-3 record and 2.83 ERA on a 71:18 K:BB in 76.1 IP over 11 GS(12G), before heading to Japan in June, where he pitched decently in a few games for Softbank. He recently signed with Boston and easily could sneak in the majors on the depleted Red Sox staff.

Overall, despite the lack of star power, teams' 42% success rate with 2011 Rule 5 picks appears to slot last year's class atop their previous competition, particularly in recent years, where it easily dwarfs the 26% success rate in 2010(5/19), 29% in 2009(5/17), 24% in 2008(5/21), and 28% in 2007(5/18).

While that improvement entirely stemmed from a reduction in the total number of players selected, after five straight seasons of exactly five players sticking with their new clubs, I see no reason why this year's class will divert from the pattern, though only Fields, taken with unanimous support from Houston's front office coterie, seems certain to maintain a roster spot all year long.