Today's Fantasy Rx

Welcome to our final 2007 NL LPR rankings, our primary method of identifying highly skilled and consistently effective pitchers. Please refer here for a complete description of the codes. We included the DOM/DUL/DIS percentages for each qualifying pitcher, tabulating all data through the end of the regular season. Pitchers with no percentages did not pitch in the majors in 2007.

1
23ABXY - John Smoltz(69/22/9)
2ABCXYZ - Brandon Webb(62/35/3)
3ACXZ - Jake Peavy(76/12/12)
ABCZ - Derek Lowe(59/13/28)
AX - Shawn Hill(81/13/6)

Hill's inclusion with these veteran studs here at the top ranking may surprise many, but he compiled superb stats when healthy and just might blossom in the Nationals' new home park.

23Cabcxyz - Aaron Heilman(56/25/20)
abcxyz - Francisco Cordero(74/17/9)
abcxz - Heath Bell(71/19/10)
abxyz - Jonathan Broxton(61/28/11)
abxy - Takashi Saito(73/20/7)
axy - Manuel Corpas(68/18/14)
ax - Matt Lindstrom(59/27/14)
x - Lee Gardner(41/39/20)
x - Brian Shouse(49/33/18)

While Heilman's appearance atop this list shocks me to some extent, his consistent effectiveness over the past three years appears largely overlooked, especially by a press corps accustomed to ignoring most middle relievers. Both Bell and Broxton similarly qualify as superb targets in the $5 neighborhood in all leagues. Don't forget about Lindstrom and Gardner when trolling for low-risk roster filler during Dollar Days.

2
3ABCXYZ - Roy Oswalt(63/22/16)
3BCYZ - Chris Carpenter(0/100/0)
by - Adam Wainwright(44/34/22)

After a slow start to the year, Wainwright managed an impressive second-half run of QA cores, including a 5542 to conclude July, a 34345 in August, and a 143434 in September. Combine those marks with second-half stats that feature a 77:30 K:BB in 99.2 IP with 95 H and only 4 HR, and I see no reason why he can't emerge as an excellent #2 starters for the Cardinals, making him a strong sleeper in almost any format.

3abcxyz - Billy Wagner(59/29/12)
abcxyz - Bob Wickman(53/28/19)
abxy - Cla Meredith(62/23/15)
abxy - Pedro Feliciano(55/31/14)
Doug Brocail(42/35/23)

Meredith's numbers actually wound up fairly near his 73/16/11 percentages from 2006, so except a fairly strong rebound down to the 3.00/1.10 level in 2008. Also, keep Wickman in the back of your mind if he lands somewhere like Baltimore or St. Louis.

3
C - Dontrelle Willis(23/31/46)
Zach Duke(11/53/37)

Both these putative one-time aces posted stunningly poor percentages here, making them extremely risky plays for 2008.

abcxyz - Chad Qualls(59/27/14)
abcxyz - Trevor Hoffman(53/30/17)

While Tony Pena and Brandon Lyon appear the favorite for saves in Arizona, don't discount Qualls considering he seems the safest bet in that entire bullpen.

A
BXZ - Greg Maddux(59/24/18)
CX - Randy Johnson(60/20/20)
B - Cole Hamels(54/25/21)
X - Tim Hudson(59/26/15)
Yovani Gallardo(65/6/29)
Jeff Francis(50/26/24)
Franklin Morales(50/13/38)
Tim Lincecum(54/17/29)
Ian Snell(53/19/28)
John Maine(50/9/41)

Maine's DIS scores gives him far more downside than the other starters here, though considering this ranking features two certain Hall of Famers and a half-dozen budding aces, I see no shame in bringing up the rear at this level.

X - Kevin Correia(41/33/25)

B
CXZ - Pedro Martinez(40/40/20)
CYZ - Ben Sheets(25/42/33)
C - Carlos Zambrano(47/29/24)
David Bush(39/35/26)
Brad Penny(45/33/21)

David Bush's failure to progress royally irritated those of us that pegged him as a top sleeper, but he actually posted DOM/DUL/DIS percentages in the same vicinity of Sheets, Penny, and even Zambrano, which probably says more about the risk involved in targeting the latter trio than predicting any pending breakout for Bush.

Cax - Brett Myers(69/25/6)
X - Carlos Villanueva(40/21/40)

C
Z - Paul Maholm(41/28/31)
c - Matt Belisle(23/37/40)
Barry Zito(36/21/42)
Doug Davis(33/33/33)

Y
Edgar Gonzalez(33/33/33)

Z
Esteban Loaiza(0/29/71)

I still suspect that Dodger Stadium eventually will cure some of Loaiza's woes, but don't bid that extra buck unless you can dump him at your leisure.

abcxyz - Ryan Dempster(58/26/17)

a
bcxyz - Mike Gonzalez(61/22/17)
bcxyz - Jose Valverde(55/32/12)
bcxyz - Brian Fuentes(56/25/19)
bcxyz - Scott Linebrink(50/31/19)
bcxyz - Brad Lidge(67/17/17)
bcyz - Mike Wuertz(52/25/23)
bxyz - Chad Cordero(51/31/18)
bcx - John Grabow(52/30/17)
bcz - Tom Gordon(55/25/20)
bxy - Peter Moylan(59/28/14)
cxy - Russ Springer(61/27/12)
cxz - Derrick Turnbow(64/22/14)
cxz - Jason Isringhausen(54/29/17)
bx - Matt Capps(55/33/12)
bx - Damaso Marte(60/25/15)
by - Jorge Julio(56/21/24)
cx - Octavio Dotel(61/24/15)
cx - Tyler Walker(53/33/13)
cx - Randy Flores(50/34/16)
xy - J.C. Romero(59/22/19)
b - Renyel Pinto(50/27/23)
x - Justin Miller(65/21/15)
x - Brian Wilson(75/17/8)
x - Jonathan Albaladejo(71/29/0)
x - LaTroy Hawkins(68/21/11)
x - Jon Rauch(53/27/19)
x - Tyler Yates(52/29/19)
x - Armando Benitez(56/25/18)
x - Ryan Franklin(50/34/16)
x - Brian Moehler(50/31/19)
y - Joe Beimel(53/25/22)
z - Ryan Speier(55/20/25)
z - Jeremy Affeldt(55/24/21)
z - Neal Cotts(50/13/38)
Dustin Nippert(50/22/28)
Jonathan Sanchez(59/14/28)
Bill Bray(53/21/26)
Joe Thatcher(50/23/27)
Bill Murphy(50/0/50)
Brad Hennessey(54/26/20)
Joe Smith(57/22/20)
Kirk Saarloos(52/23/26)

On the long list of sleeper relievers here, potential standouts include Peter Moylan, Derrick Turnbow, Justin Miller, and new Yankees Jonathan Albaladejo and LaTroy Hawkins. However, Brian Wilson appears the name to remember as the Giants' anointed closer quietly demonstrated both the skill level and consistency necessary to thrive in his new role.

b
Kyle Lohse(19/34/47)

The folly of offering Lohse a multi-year, multimillion dollar deal appears when we consider that his closest comparables in terms of DOM/DUL/DIS percentages look like Tim Redding(20/33/47), Paul Byrd(19/35/45), Jamie Moyer(18/33/48), Boof Bonser(20/37/43), and Odalis Perez(19/38/42), none of whom really qualifies as more than a #3 or #4 starter. Conversely, Carlos Silva's 42/24/33 numbers suggest much more upside, placing him in the neighborhood of guys like Chad Billingsley(45/25/30) and Jered Weaver(39/25/36). With top comp Redding also only a year removed from an NRI, considering Lohse as even a poor man's Carlos Silva looks like an avoidable and completely unnecessary mistake. Someone who won't earn more than $5 in the vast majority of fantasy drafts probably doesn't deserve a $5M salary, forget about the $50M figure floated by his agents for a long-term deal. While we recognize the need to pay for innings, inning eaters really should possess a three-year average IP total above 170, not to mention a career ERA below 4.82. One last note: Gil Meche posted 38/28/38 percentages in his walk year before rising to the 41/35/24 level in 2007.

cyz - Roberto Hernandez(43/33/24)
cyz - Brad Thompson(31/42/27)
cyz - Will Ohman(41/27/32)
xyz - Bob Howry(45/40/15)
cz - Scott Schoeneweis(49/27/24)
xy - Salomon Torres(48/32/20)
x - Elmer Dessens(42/50/8)
x - Royce Ring(35/54/12)
y - Brett Tomko(43/33/24)
y - Greg Aquino(40/33/27)
y - Gary Majewski(38/38/25)
y - Matt Smith(11/33/56)
z - Eddie Guardado(33/27/40)
Joel Pineiro(45/26/29)
Todd Coffey(38/33/29)
Tyler Johnson(44/33/24)
Geoff Geary(40/37/23)
Taylor Tankersley(45/29/26)
Chris Booker(33/33/33)
Josh Sharpless(0/33/67)
Tim Hamulack
Scott Cassidy

Unfortunately, Elmer Dessens never received the chance he deserved with the Dodgers, but I suspect his new deal with Pittsburgh will give him a great chance to replace Salomon Torres in the Pirates' bullpen. While Torres and Howry also interest me here, Joel Pineiro appears a less worthy investment given his weirdly unbalanced 10/60/30 percentages as a starter.
c
z - Braden Looper(37/27/37)

xz - David Weathers(36/47/17)
z - Kerry Wood(45/32/23)
z - Rudy Seanez(48/22/30)
z - Brandon Medders(33/30/37)
z - Jonah Bayliss(24/45/32)
Scott Eyre(33/36/31)
Jose Mesa(45/29/27)
Blaine Boyer(80/0/20)
Ambiorix Burgos(35/29/35)
Franquelis Osoria(32/36/32)

I don't doubt for a second that Kerry can emerged as a dominant closer for the Cubs barring further health problems.

x
z - Scott Munter(33/67/0)
Rafael Soriano(48/39/13)
Chad Billingsley(43/39/17)
Jorge Sosa(39/43/18)
Romulo Sanchez(44/38/19)
Brad Salmon(46/42/12)
Carlos Marmol(49/37/14)
Jared Burton(45/38/17)
Tony Pena(43/39/19)
Matt Herges(46/40/14)
Shawn Chacon(35/47/18)
Manny Acosta(48/38/14)
Taylor Buchholz(48/33/18)
Patrick Misch(29/57/14)
Daniel Barone(30/50/20)
Troy Percival(45/36/18)

I see a couple of former closers here and several budding late-inning stoppers. Don't be surprised to see someone like Sanchez, Burton, or Acosta at least join the ranks of reliable set-up men like Marmol and Pena, perhaps even following Soriano into a closer's job.

y
Brandon Lyon(49/26/25)
Juan Cruz(49/25/26)
Trever Miller(42/29/29)
Clay Condrey(46/33/21)
Saul Rivera(45/32/24)
Joey Devine(30/40/30)
Chad Paronto(34/39/27)
Fabio Castro(33/22/44)
Micah Bowie(45/18/36)

z
Jay Bergmann(33/19/48)

Although Bergmann showed flashes of promise, his obvious downside makes him a fairly risky play in standard leagues.

Guillermo Mota(46/29/25)
Marco Carvajal(0/33/67)

1 - K/0 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9, of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2007.
2 - K/0 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9, of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2006.
3 - K/0 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9, of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2005.

QA score for starts: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any starter who pitches at least 5 innings and fulfills the following skill qualifications: K>=IP-2, BB<=IP/3, H<=IP, HR<=1, and G-F>=1.00. Any starter who does not reach at least one of the required statistical goals or fails to pitch 5 innings earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

QA score for relief outings: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any reliever who retires at least one batter and fulfills the following skill qualifications: K>=IP, BB=0, H<=IP, HR=0, and G-F>=1.00. Any reliever who does not reach at least one of the required statistical goals or fails to retire a batter earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

Starters must pitch in five games before earning any of the following DOM or DIS ratings. Relievers must appear in no less than 10 games before earning DOM/DIS consideration.

A - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2007 starts
B - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2006 starts
C - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2005 starts

X - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2007 starts
Y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2006 starts
Z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2005 starts

a - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2007 relief outings
b - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2006 relief outings
c - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2005 relief outings

x - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2007 relief outings
y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2006 relief outings
z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2005 relief outings

Today's Fantasy Rx: At average auction values, Aaron Heilman laps the field as the lowest risk NL pitcher for 2008, followed at a distance by John Smoltz, Brandon Webb, and Francisco Cordero. Each pitcher in this quartet possesses both a consistently high level of skill and a track record of fairly good health. Roy Oswalt and Billy Wagner qualify as slightly riskier bets who nevertheless belong on everyone's short list. Depending on their respective situations once the season begins, I also consider several relievers to be comparably good investments, including Chad Qualls, Trevor Hoffman, Mike Gonzalez, Jose Valverde, Brian Fuentes, Scott Linebrink, and Brad Lidge, as well as Ryan Dempster if he returns to the bullpen and Bob Wickman if he doesn't retire.