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July
28th
2007
Your Daily Fantasy Rx
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2007 NL LPR: Week 17

by Tim Polko

Today's Fantasy Rx

Welcome to our weekly LPR rankings, our primary method of identifying highly skilled and consistently effective pitchers. While we have not changed this system since last season, feel free to refer to this key for a complete description of the codes. We have included the five most recent 2007 QA scores for each starter, along with the 10 most recent QA scores for each reliever, tabulating all data through July 25th. Pitchers with no QA scores have not pitched this year, so do not roster any of them unless you see someone ready to return to the majors from the minors or the DL.


1
3ACXZ - Jake Peavy(44443)
ABCZ - Derek Lowe(42400)
ABX - Brad Penny(44044)
AX - Sean Marshall(30335)
X - Aaron Harang(34434)

abcxyz - Francisco Cordero(5514445455)
abcxz - Heath Bell(4432454542)
abxy - Takashi Saito(4455354344)
axy - Manuel Corpas(4545455445)
ax - Oscar Villarreal(4342335335)
x - Tony Pena(4314253353)

Corpas looks like the hottest reliever in baseball right now and might not relinquish the Colorado closer's job this decade. However, aside from Corpas and a couple of other guys like Cordero, NL pitchers largely struggled this week, as evidenced by the departures of Yovani Gallardo, Saul Rivera, and long-time first-rank starter Ian Snell. No pitcher joined the top rank in either league this week for the first time since April.


2
3ABCXYZ - Roy Oswalt(34534)
3ABXY - John Smoltz(34344)
3BCYZ - Chris Carpenter(3)
ABCXYZ - Brandon Webb(35344)
by - Adam Wainwright(43554)

Rebuilding teams need to take a serious look at Adam Wainwright, who has been on fire since May and pitching as well this month as any NL starter. With a full year as a starter under his belt, he easily could emerge as a breakout #2 pitcher in 2008.

3Cabcyz - Aaron Heilman(5523534455)
3abcxyz - Billy Wagner(5343453543)
abcxyz - Bob Wickman(2434533551)
abxy - Pedro Feliciano(3554455444)
abxy - Cla Meredith(4534454123)
Doug Brocail(1244343023)

While his WHIP still mildly concerns me, Feliciano's high skill level makes him a good target for anyone seeking low-risk roster filler.


3
C - Dontrelle Willis(03002)
Zach Duke(33320)

Monkeying around the edges of potential Willis trades for the last two years while waiting for an offer surpassing the Indians' haul for Bartolo Colon probably cost the Marlins a chance to completely rebuild the franchise. Right now no sane GM would offer a package of Davy Jones, Micky Dolenz, Peter Tork, and Michael Nesmith, forget about rumors involving Adam Jones, Jeff Clement, and pitching. Willis not only barely belongs in a big league rotation, he still ranks as an obvious injury risk, making any bargain for him at this time extremely foolhardy.

abcxyz - Trevor Hoffman(4433355444)
abcxyz - Chad Qualls(5533352532)
cx - Ryan Madson(1323543435)


A
BXZ - Greg Maddux(41054)
BX - David Bush(35435)
CX - Randy Johnson(44340)
X - Aaron Cook(43544)
X - Shawn Hill(44434)
X - Tim Hudson(50443)
X - Ted Lilly(44423)
Chris Young(44430)
Mark Hendrickson(04404)
Yovani Gallardo(25442)
John Maine(44024)
Wandy Rodriguez(34403)
Ian Snell(43240)
Justin Germano(00222)


B
CYZ - Ben Sheets(33420)
CX - Carlos Zambrano(33343)
CZ - Pedro Martinez
Y - Hong-chih Kuo(33040)
Cole Hamels(33335)
Josh Johnson(0005)

Cax - Brett Myers(5455434443)
Carlos Villanueva(4341133244)

Myers quietly returned to the Phillies' bullpen yesterday and should resume closing duties immediately. Don't be surprised if he tallies over a dozen more saves by year's end.


C
Z - Paul Maholm(44434)
c - Matt Belisle(20300)
Barry Zito(24041)
Doug Davis(33325)


X
bcyz - Brad Thompson(44333)
Jeff Francis(24253)
Russ Ortiz(34330)


Y
Edgar Gonzalez(4232401451)


Z
abcxyz - Ryan Dempster(4235545553)


a
bcxyz - Jose Valverde(5545245344)
bcxyz - Mike Gonzalez(4554443542)
bcxyz - Brad Lidge(1325434545)
bcxyz - Dan Wheeler(1244535434)
bcxz - Tom Gordon(5351544334)
bcyz - Brian Fuentes(4455242225)
bxyz - Jonathan Broxton(3454523555)
bxyz - Chad Cordero(2345535444)
cxy - Russ Springer(3555442554)
cxz - Jason Isringhausen(5345333534)
cxz - Derrick Turnbow(4334433440)
bx - Damaso Marte(2255435445)
by - Salomon Torres(4243034444)
by - Jorge Julio(2324345213)
cx - Randy Flores(3334444543)
cz - Rudy Seanez(5454334220)
xy - J.C. Romero(4431535354)
b - Renyel Pinto(5433354444)
x - Brian Shouse(4445434443)
x - Yoel Hernandez(4541554414)
x - Brad Hennessey(4342344445)
x - Armando Benitez(0544534244)
x - Taylor Buchholz(5433443354)
x - Justin Miller(5442434335)
x - Kirk Saarloos(3452444340)
x - Kevin Cameron(4433434352)
x - Troy Percival(4452434333)
x - Carlos Marmol(5234343424)
x - Chin-hui Tsao(4442323351)
x - Joe Smith(4310350303)
y - Joe Beimel(0445435422)
y - Saul Rivera(4525423533)
y - Micah Bowie(5435241303)
z - Jeremy Affeldt(3455515340)
z - Guillermo Mota(4335445242)
z - Neal Cotts(2043453410)
Jonathan Sanchez(2344444452)
Kelvin Jimenez(4354441134)
Brian Moehler(5442344422)
Jon Rauch(4353234542)
Chris Schroder(5424242334)
LaTroy Hawkins(2335442423)
Mike Zagurski(3544143220)
Antonio Alfonseca(2243224341)

While the Giants reportedly intend to audition Brad Hennessey and Randy Messenger as future closers for the next two months, only Hennessey's relatively low strikeout rate portends any difficulty for him in fending off the challenge. He still looks like the best for the vast majority of San Francisco save opportunities, both for the rest of 2007 and quite likely also in 2008.


b
y - Brett Tomko(40234)
Kyle Lohse(33033)

cxyz - Mike Wuertz(4144344353)
cxyz - Scott Linebrink(4233334131)
cyz - Roberto Hernandez(2534433145)
cyz - Will Ohman(5343342203)
xyz - Bob Howry(5433455533)
cz - Scott Schoeneweis(4452235351)
xy - Peter Moylan(3445332343)
c - John Grabow(2555333543)
x - Matt Capps(5535344445)
x - Elmer Dessens(5234335435)
x - Tyler Johnson(1355402334)
x - Royce Ring(3333433341)
y - Gary Majewski(4432332040)
y - Greg Aquino(14551223)
y - Matt Smith(423220033)
z - Eddie Guardado
Taylor Tankersley(2550234445)
Todd Coffey(3524033305)
Geoff Geary(3430341421)
Chris Booker(530)
Josh Sharpless(222332)
Tim Hamulack
Scott Cassidy


c
z - Braden Looper(04230)

xz - David Weathers(3424321435)
z - Brandon Medders(3442253431)
z - Jonah Bayliss(1033534233)
z - Clay Hensley()
Jose Mesa(4320244334)
Blaine Boyer(45452)
Scott Eyre(3533234243)
Ambiorix Burgos(3334134142)
Yhency Brazoban(4050)
Franquelis Osoria


x
Chad Billingsley(43323)

Shawn Chacon(4452315543)
Rafael Soriano(5354343325)
Steve Kline(3353442344)
Ramon Ramirez(4035543134)
Ryan Franklin(3345424234)
Mike Gosling(4215433433)
Brad Salmon(5141335334)
Matt Wise(3543423233)
Matt Lindstrom(2334023553)


y
Trever Miller(3425543452)
Clay Condrey(4133445243)
Brandon Lyon(4225234354)
Juan Cruz(4324533334)
Vinnie Chulk(4332334423)
Chad Paronto(2345332324)
Joey Devine(442)
Fabio Castro(30034)


z
Jay Bergmann(02020)

Ryan Speier(441)
Scott Munter(3)


1 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2007.
2 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2006.
3 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2005.


QA score for starts: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any starter who pitches at least 5 innings and fulfills the following skill qualifications: K>=IP-2, BB<=IP/3, H<=IP, HR<=1, and G-F>=1.00. Any starter who does not reach at least one of the required statistical goals or fails to pitch 5 innings earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

QA score for relief outings: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any reliever who retires at least one batter and fulfills the following skill qualifications: K>=IP, BB=0, H<=IP, HR=0, and G-F>=1.00. Any reliever who does not reach at least one of the required statistical goals or fails to retire a batter earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

Starters must pitch in five games before earning any of the following DOM or DIS ratings. Relievers must appear in no less than 10 games before earning DOM/DIS consideration.

A - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2007 starts
B - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2006 starts
C - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2005 starts

X - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2007 starts
Y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2006 starts
Z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2005 starts

a - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2007 relief outings
b - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2006 relief outings
c - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2005 relief outings

x - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2007 relief outings
y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2006 relief outings
z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2005 relief outings


Today's Fantasy Rx: Philadelphia's acquisition of Tadahito Iguchi for Michael Dubee easily tops this week's NL transaction news. Iguchi will sub at second base while Utley's on the DL, and then most likely simply will shift to third base upon Utley's return. Teams looking for respectable contributions in all five categories from their deadline acquisition should prioritize Iguchi in weekly free agent claims.

Three deals involving current and future Devil Rays' relievers all involve NL teams as Tampa shipped Ty Wigginton to Houston for Dan Wheeler, Seth McClung to Milwaukee for Grant Balfour, and Jorge Cantu and Shaun Cumberland to Cincinnati for Brian Shackelford and Calvin Medlock. Yes, the club undersold Cantu, but Shackelford fills and immediate need, and Medlock at least offers some future promise. Cantu will head to Triple-A and only will join the majors before September in case of injury or a trade that opens an infield slot, though given the rebirth of guys like Brandon Phillips and Josh Hamilton in Cincy, definitely monitor Cantu's progress in the NL. The Wigginton-Wheeler deal at least makes sense for Tampa, providing the Rays a superb set-up man and alternative closer if someone offers a good package for Al Reyes. Conversely, Wigginton looks like an awful fit for the Astros, though he could surprise. Morgan Ensberg owners qualify as the big losers here since Wigginton will receive most of his playing time at third base, which still doesn't make him worth a full-boat FAAB bid in most NL leagues.

Tampa's trade of McClung for Balfour has the least immediate fantasy impact since Balfour appears slotted in middle relief and McClung remains stuck at Triple-A, though McClung certainly possesses the tools necessary to emerge as a potential successor to pending free agent Francisco Cordero in Milwaukee. The Brewers' acquisition of Scott Linebrink for Will Inman, Joe Thatcher, and Steve Garrison looks just as intriguing since Milwaukee also should receive a couple of draft picks when Linebrink departs as a free agent this winter. Bargaining away Inman still seems too high a price, especially since he could flourish in San Diego, but simply exchanging prospects for immediate help is a positive step for a franchise seeking its first winning season since Billy Ray Cyrus was better known for his mullet than fathering Disney Channel's top star.

On the Padres' side of the ledger, Thatcher immediately replaces Linebrink, providing a needed lefty in the bullpen, while Inman and Garrison fill gaps in the upper minors. More importantly, a quieter swap of Leo Rosales to Arizona liberates Scott Hairston, who could receive an extended audition next summer if Milton Bradley and Mike Cameron depart as free agents. Hairston, who turned 27 in the spring, still owns an intriguing skill set, though he probably won't prospect in the pitchers' paradise at PETCO. More importantly, the trade clears a slot for Carlos Quentin to return to the Diamondbacks, so definitely look to grab him if he somehow landed on your NL waiver wire after his demotion earlier this month.


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