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July
21st
2007
Your Daily Fantasy Rx
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2007 NL LPR: Week 16

by Tim Polko

Today's Fantasy Rx

Welcome to our weekly LPR rankings, our primary method of identifying highly skilled and consistently effective pitchers. While we have not changed this system since last season, feel free to refer to this key for a complete description of the codes. We have included the five most recent 2007 QA scores for each starter, along with the 10 most recent QA scores for each reliever, tabulating all data through July 18th. Pitchers with no QA scores have not pitched this year, so do not roster any of them unless you see someone ready to return to the majors from the minors or the DL.


1
3ACXZ - Jake Peavy(54444)
ABCZ - Derek Lowe(53424)
ABX - Brad Penny(54404)
AX - Sean Marshall(03033)
A - Ian Snell(24324)
X - Aaron Harang(23443)
Yovani Gallardo(254)

abcxz - Heath Bell(3244432454)
abxy - Takashi Saito(4455354344)
axy - Manuel Corpas(4245454554)
ax - Oscar Villarreal(3444342335)
ay - Saul Rivera(2344452542)
x - Tony Pena(3344314253)

In a very impressive week for NL pitchers, Marshall and Rivera reclaimed spots up here while Gallardo and Villarreal each make their first appearances of the year. Gallardo in particular offers plenty of short-term upside with Ben Sheets sidelined for a month, and he merits an active roster spot in virtually every imaginable format regardless of league size or depth.


2
3ABCXYZ - Roy Oswalt(23453)
3ABXY - John Smoltz(43434)
3BCYZ - Chris Carpenter(3)
BCXYZ - Brandon Webb(33353)
by - Adam Wainwright(33435)

3abcxyz - Billy Wagner(5455343453)
3Cbcyz - Aaron Heilman(2242552353)
abcxyz - Bob Wickman(4412434533)
abxy - Pedro Feliciano(2535544554)
abxy - Cla Meredith(5320453445)
a - Doug Brocail(4441244343)


3
C - Dontrelle Willis(50300)
Zach Duke(33320)

abcxyz - Trevor Hoffman(3444333554)
abcxyz - Chad Qualls(4405533352)
cx - Ryan Madson(4431323543)


A
BXZ - Greg Maddux(44105)
BX - David Bush(43543)
CX - Randy Johnson(44340)
X - Ted Lilly(34444)
X - Shawn Hill(44434)
X - Tim Hudson(35504)
X - Jeff Francis(32425)
Chris Young(04444)
Wandy Rodriguez(43440)
John Maine(44402)
Rodrigo Lopez(30044)
Justin Germano(55002)
Rich Hill(03023)

I really don't like what we're seeing from Rich Hill. Normally I just prop the hottest starters in these blurbs, but his persistent skill deficiencies suggest an annoying amount of downside. At the very least, owners in leagues with an abundance of Cub fans should consider selling high rather than risking further qualitative damage to get those extra strikeouts and the occasional win.


B
CYZ - Ben Sheets(33420)
CX - Carlos Zambrano(43334)
CZ - Pedro Martinez
Y - Hong-chih Kuo(33040)
Cole Hamels(40333)
Josh Johnson(0005)

Cax - Brett Myers(5455434443)
Carlos Villanueva(5544341133)


C
Z - Paul Maholm(34443)
c - Matt Belisle(33203)
Barry Zito(02404)
Doug Davis(23332)

After a very slow start to the year, Maholm finally seems to be approaching his 2005 skills. Despite the vast difference in experience and contracts, he looks like a safer play right now than Zito or Davis.


X
bcyz - Brad Thompson(04433)
Aaron Cook(14435)
Russ Ortiz(34330)


Y
Edgar Gonzalez(3342324014)


Z
abcxyz - Ryan Dempster(3242355455)


a
Mark Hendrickson(30440)

bcxyz - Jose Valverde(5445545245)
bcxyz - Francisco Cordero(4455144454)
bcxyz - Mike Gonzalez(4554443542)
bcxyz - Mike Wuertz(3344144344)
bcxyz - Dan Wheeler(3451244535)
bcxz - Tom Gordon(3253515443)
bcyz - Brad Lidge(4444132543)
bcyz - Brian Fuentes(4455242225)
bxyz - Jonathan Broxton(2434545235)
cxy - Russ Springer(5453555442)
cxz - Jason Isringhausen(4553453335)
cxz - Derrick Turnbow(4254433443)
bx - Damaso Marte(3225543544)
by - Jorge Julio(4452324345)
cx - Randy Flores(4433334444)
cz - Rudy Seanez(4255454334)
xz - Guillermo Mota(3534335445)
x - Yoel Hernandez(4541554414)
x - Carlos Marmol(4544523434)
x - Kirk Saarloos(4434524443)
x - Armando Benitez(5410544534)
x - Taylor Buchholz(5543344335)
x - Justin Miller(3443544243)
x - Brad Hennessey(3444342344)
x - LaTroy Hawkins(5423354424)
x - Matt Wise(3453543423)
x - Kevin Cameron(5243443343)
x - Tyler Yates(4432542353)
x - Mike Zagurski(0535441432)
x - Chin-hui Tsao(4442323351)
x - Joe Smith(0343103503)
y - Joe Beimel(5330445435)
y - J.C. Romero(3354443153)
y - Micah Bowie(5435241303)
z - Jeremy Affeldt(5353455515)
z - Neal Cotts(2043453410)
Kelvin Jimenez(4443544411)
Brian Moehler(3544234442)
Jonathan Sanchez(3242344444)
Zach McClellan(4442445213)
Doug Slaten(2235355443)
Jon Rauch(4524435323)
Antonio Alfonseca(5342243224)


b
y - Brett Tomko(04023)
Kyle Lohse(01330)

cxyz - Scott Linebrink(3442333341)
cyz - Will Ohman(5453433422)
cyz - Roberto Hernandez(3213253443)
xyz - Chad Cordero(4453234553)
xyz - Bob Howry(3332543345)
cz - Scott Schoeneweis(1445223535)
xy - Peter Moylan(4413445332)
c - John Grabow(4525553335)
x - Matt Capps(3155353444)
x - Elmer Dessens(5234335435)
x - Tyler Johnson(1355402334)
x - Royce Ring(4333334333)
y - Salomon Torres(5242430344)
y - Gary Majewski(4432332040)
y - Greg Aquino(14551223)
y - Matt Smith(423220033)
z - Eddie Guardado
Renyel Pinto(5354333544)
Todd Coffey(5423524033)
Geoff Geary(3430341421)
Taylor Tankersley(3012550234)
Josh Sharpless(222332)
Tim Hamulack
Scott Cassidy
Chris Booker


c
z - Braden Looper(10423)
z - Clay Hensley(01230)

xz - David Weathers(2433424321)
z - Brandon Medders(3442253431)
z - Jonah Bayliss(1033534233)
Blaine Boyer(45452)
Scott Eyre(2535332342)
Ambiorix Burgos(3334134142)
Jose Mesa(3243202443)
Yhency Brazoban(4050)
Franquelis Osoria


x
Chad Billingsley(04332)

Brian Shouse(4340444543)
Shawn Chacon(4344452315)
Ryan Franklin(4433454242)
Rafael Soriano(5305354343)
Ramon Ramirez(3540355431)
Brad Salmon(5141335334)
Steve Kline(3033335344)
Matt Lindstrom(3423340235)
Luis Ayala(3335332432)


y
Trever Miller(4234255434)
Juan Cruz(4443245333)
Chad Paronto(4423453323)
Vinnie Chulk(2544332334)
Clay Condrey(3041334452)
Brandon Lyon(4234225234)
Joey Devine(442)
Fabio Castro(30034)


z
Jay Bergmann(00202)

Ryan Speier(441)
Scott Munter(3)


1 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2007.
2 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2006.
3 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2005.


QA score for starts: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any starter who pitches at least 5 innings and fulfills the following skill qualifications: K>=IP-2, BB<=IP/3, H<=IP, HR<=1, and G-F>=1.00. Any starter who does not reach at least one of the required statistical goals or fails to pitch 5 innings earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

QA score for relief outings: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any reliever who retires at least one batter and fulfills the following skill qualifications: K>=IP, BB=0, H<=IP, HR=0, and G-F>=1.00. Any reliever who does not reach at least one of the required statistical goals or fails to retire a batter earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

Starters must pitch in five games before earning any of the following DOM or DIS ratings. Relievers must appear in no less than 10 games before earning DOM/DIS consideration.

A - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2007 starts
B - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2006 starts
C - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2005 starts

X - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2007 starts
Y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2006 starts
Z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2005 starts

a - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2007 relief outings
b - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2006 relief outings
c - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2005 relief outings

x - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2007 relief outings
y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2006 relief outings
z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2005 relief outings


Today's Fantasy Rx: Though the Cubs possibly overpaid by swapping Rob Bowen and promising 23-year-old southpaw Jerry Blevins for a 33-year-old with .226/.261/.281 averages, Jason Kendall still possesses a relatively decent skill set and could thrive in Wrigley. He still owns an excellent contact rate accompanied by a career-best 1.16 G-F, so although he won't add much quantitatively, Kendall will play most days and likely post a batting average nearer his .297 career norm than his abysmal mark with the A's. I consider him a solid investment in any NL league where you either need another catcher or just want another everyday player.

The Cubs' other trade, sending Cesar Izturis to Pittsburgh for a PTBN, deservedly attracts much less attention since Izturis wasn't playing too regularly in Chicago and shouldn't see many at-bats with the Pirates unless they trade Jack Wilson. Considering that Izturis possesses little value in most leagues under the best of circumstances, the only significant ramification of the deal involves the elevation of Ryan Theriot as the unquestioned everyday shortstop, at least until Lou Piniella tires of Theriot's defense and demands the recall of Ronny Cedeno, who continues to scald the ball at Triple-A this summer.


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