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July
13th
2007
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2007 AL LPR: Week 15

by Tim Polko

Today's Fantasy Rx

Welcome to our weekly LPR rankings, our primary method of identifying highly skilled and consistently effective pitchers. While we have not changed this system since last season, feel free to refer to this key for a complete description of the codes. We have included the five most recent 2007 QA scores for each starter, along with the 10 most recent QA scores for each reliever, tabulating all data through July 8th. Pitchers with no QA scores have not pitched this year, so do not roster any of them unless you see someone ready to return to the majors from the minors or the DL.


1
23ABCYZ - Roger Clemens(40244)
2ABCX - Jeremy Bonderman(25354)
2ACX - John Lackey(50535)
3ACX - Josh Beckett(23543)
ABCXYZ - Kelvim Escobar(44404)
AXY - Dan Haren(44233)
AX - Jeremy Guthrie(54443)

In a remarkably unsurprising development, Clemens snuck into the top spot just as the first half ended. If he avoids injury, he should register 6-12 solid innings on a weekly basis for the rest of the year.

23abcxyz - Mariano Rivera(5453344344)
2abcxyz - Akinori Otsuka(5434443242)
2abcxy - J.J. Putz(3553553445)
abcxyz - Joe Nathan(5325444553)
axy - Joaquin Benoit(2355455543)
ax - Hideki Okajima(4434535552)
a - Matt Guerrier(3553233224)


2
3ABX - C.C. Sabathia(45540)
ABCXYZ - Johan Santana(33445)
C - Jose Contreras(02222)

One bad start dragged down Sabathia, who otherwise owns the skills to match Santana's expectedly excellent output over the balance of the year.

3abcyz - Justin Duchscherer(2344443251)
abcxyz - Chad Bradford(0354444454)
abcxyz - Scot Shields(3343344352)
BYby - Francisco Liriano
bcyz - Mike MacDougal(4312334342)
aby - Dennys Reyes(2444443245)
bxy - Alan Embree(5444530334)
Mike Myers(4500434024)


3
ACXYZ - Roy Halladay(54333)
ABCZ - Felix Hernandez(45344)
Bcz - Julian Tavarez(44020)
CZ - Andy Pettitte(43204)
Y - Kevin Millwood(33434)
Z - Bartolo Colon(30330)

abcxyz - Huston Street(5335344245)
abcz - Todd Jones(3454154533)
x - Aaron Fultz(0333352534)


A
BXby - Fausto Carmona(53053)
BCX - Erik Bedard(45525)
BCZ - A.J. Burnett(45400)
BY - Mike Mussina(44444)
X - Justin Verlander(43444)
Javier Vazquez(34445)
Jake Westbrook(50453)


B
X - Joe Saunders(34233)
Y - Curt Schilling(52340)
Cha Seung Baek(43330)


C
Z - Rich Harden(5350)

abx - Scott Downs(4540304354)


X
Y - James Shields(32355)
Joe Blanton(45433)
Chien-ming Wang(54234)
Daisuke Matsuzaka(33452)


Y
Luke Hudson(0)


a
Shaun Marcum(32340)

bcxyz - Francisco Rodriguez(4535543244)
bcxyz - Bobby Jenks(5243344354)
bxy - Jon Papelbon(4334544353)
bxy - Pat Neshek(2434535325)
bxy - C.J. Wilson(5553233521)
cxz - Rafael Betancourt(5441445340)
cxz - George Sherrill(4453053442)
cxz - Eric Gagne(3431353445)
cxz - Al Reyes(5344140330)
xyz - Justin Speier(5345335345)
bx - Rafael Perez(2344455143)
by - Javier Lopez(3414444354)
cx - Octavio Dotel(5524352434)
cz - David Riske(1433445433)
xz - Manny Delcarmen(4343343435)
b - Shawn Camp(1445404442)
x - Joakim Soria(4444344344)
x - Santiago Casilla(3445043445)
x - Lenny DiNardo(3445254233)
x - Jeremy Accardo(0345134224)
z - Chris Ray(4233233454)
z - Jason Frasor(4342532023)


b
y - Joe Kennedy(12030)

cxyz - Juan Rincon(3225450335)
cyz - Kyle Farnsworth(3354254443)
cyz - Matt J. Miller(03)
cz - Kiko Calero(0503534531)
yz - Fernando Rodney(4322422324)
y - Wes Littleton(443432143)
y - Jon Huber(42425)
y - Scott Feldman(0232432331)
y - Joe Nelson
z - Mike Burns
Joel Pineiro(3522444442)
Luis Vizcaino(3334433454)
Fernando Cabrera(1443242342)
Tom Mastny(2332431133)
Craig Breslow


c
xyz - Mike Timlin(2430344333)
xz - Tim Byrdak(4433330343)
yz - Macay McBride(5335444130)
x - Bobby Seay(5333334543)
z - Ron Villone(2013334345)
z - Jay Witasick(2225343350)
z - Chris Reitsma(3333430353)


x
y - Sean Green(3425435354)
Jamie Walker(0434353535)
Frank Francisco(3243444234)
Kyle Snyder(3454334333)
Jay Marshall(3004334143)
Sean Henn(3334133324)


y
Brian Burres(13020)

Joe Borowski(4342244345)
Zach Miner(41353245)
Craig Hansen


z
Jose Capellan(1523322343)
Ron Flores(4142333101)


1 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2007.
2 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2006.
3 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2005.


QA score for starts: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any starter who pitches at least 5 innings and fulfills the following skill qualifications: K>=IP-2, BB<=IP/3, H<=IP, HR<=1, and G-F>=1.00. Any starter who does not reach at least one of the required statistical goals or fails to pitch 5 innings earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

QA score for relief outings: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any reliever who retires at least one batter and fulfills the following skill qualifications: K>=IP, BB=0, H<=IP, HR=0, and G-F>=1.00. Any reliever who does not reach at least one of the required statistical goals or fails to retire a batter earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

Starters must pitch in five games before earning any of the following DOM or DIS ratings. Relievers must appear in no less than 10 games before earning DOM/DIS consideration.

A - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2007 starts
B - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2006 starts
C - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2005 starts

X - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2007 starts
Y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2006 starts
Z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2005 starts

a - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2007 relief outings
b - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2006 relief outings
c - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2005 relief outings

x - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2007 relief outings
y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2006 relief outings
z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2005 relief outings


We'll continue tomorrow with this week's NL LPR article.


Internet Challenge

SP(6)
Johan Santana: Fri:OAK(J.Blanton)
Roy Oswalt: Sat:@CHC(T.Lilly)
Ben Sheets: Fri:COL(J.Francis)
Jake Peavy: Sun:@ARI(B.Webb)
Brandon Webb: Sun:SD(J.Peavy)
Greg Maddux: Fri:@ARI(D.Davis)
Josh Beckett: Sun:TOR(J.Towers)
Daisuke Matsuzaka: Sat:TOR(D.McGowan)
Dan Haren: Sat:@MIN(C.Silva)
Felix Hernandez: No start.
Matt Cain: Fri:LAD(C.Billingsley)
Jon Papelbon: 3 Home vs. TOR.

Deploying the home starts of Santana, Sheets, Beckett, Daisuke, and Cain to accompany Papelbon makes the most sense here.

Fielder will play for Rios to get us under the cap while Kinsler, Teahen, Taveras, and Hall sit.

Rotohelp.com(9th lg; 232nd overall)
Week 15b: July 13-July 15

 
C	Victor Martinez		1310 
C	Brian McCann		880 
1B	Ryan Howard		1420
1B	Travis Hafner		1380
2B	Howie Kendrick		520
2B	Kelly Johnson		400 
3B	David Wright		1550
3B	B.J. Upton		410
SS	Jose Reyes		1610 
SS	Hanley Ramirez		1100
OF	Matt Holliday		1410 
OF	Manny Ramirez		1390
OF	Barry Bonds		830 
OF	Delmon Young		750
OF	Shane Victorino		560 
OF	Corey Hart		430
DH	Albert Pujols		2050 
DH	Prince Fielder		910

SP	Johan Santana		1960 
SP	Ben Sheets		1220 
SP	Josh Beckett		1000 
SP	Daisuke Matsuzaka	950
SP	Matt Cain		840 
SP	Jon Papelbon		900  
RP	Francisco Cordero	1260
RP	Takashi Saito		1200
RP	Joe Borowski		1110 
RP	Matt Capps		600

Total Week 15b Salary:		29950


Today's Fantasy Rx: Extension Week in the AL saw Chicago lock down Mark Buehrle for four more years, Travis Hafner add four more years to the year remaining on his deal, and Ichiro snag a contract that should pay him around $20M a year for the next five years. You therefore should feel free to target any of these guys if you need second-half help, though be aware that the price for each of them likely just shot upward, especially in leagues where you lose players dealt to the NL.


Click here to read the previous article.

Please e-mail your comments to tim@rotohelp.com.
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