Today's Fantasy Rx

As rosters are due for this game at 12pm(CDT) on Thursday, today I'll discuss our player selections and corresponding rationale for the final regular season CDM contest.

Mid-Season Fantasy Baseball
Last year we breezed through our selection of starting pitchers and posted our best finish in this contest to date. Unfortunately, few top starters enjoy strong schedules to open the second half, making Jon Papelbon(1950) and Jake Peavy(2730) the only automatic picks. We started with a list of nearly thirty starters who we consider viable picks and then slowly wittled down the list, giving primary consideration to schedule and match-ups in an attempt to maximize our double-starts over the initial weeks of the half. For instance, Peavy looks like a great play in weeks 16 & 18, as well as most weeks down the stretch, while Papelbon almost never will leave our lineup barring unexpected developments.

Roy Halladay(2480) and James Shields(1280) edged out Felix Hernandez as the only overly solid starters that double next week. Jeremy Bonderman(2670) quickly earned a slot for his third week double, followed by John Maine(1120), Josh Beckett(2520), and C.C. Sabathia(2490).

After removing pitchers with either clearly worrisome schedules and those that just didn't provide sufficient value, we then dumped the riskier doubles. Kelvim Escobar, Justin Verlander, and Dan Haren appear on our short list for possible August pick-ups but double against each other in the third week. Tom Gorzelanny, despite a solid double that week, appears useless most other weeks and just seems too risky as a Pirate. John Lackey doesn't double for five weeks, so we'll consider him later in the year. Roger Clemens, another surprisingly cost-effective option, faces a road double in the third week, as well our general concerns regarding his inning and strikeout numbers. Lastly, with Sabathia already rostered, we removed the two pitchers he faces in the third week, Johan Santana and Daisuke Matsuzaka, both of whom join Escobar, Verlander, and Haren on our likely pick-up list when they next double. Cutting these contenders left us with Cole Hamels(1450), a worthy option in any format right now, and Erik Bedard(2160), who simply offers sufficient upside to allow us to ignore the multitude of problems dragging down the Orioles.

With the 55000 Mid-Season salary cap 5000 less than the cap room available in the full-season game, finding inexpensive players wherever possible is vital to success. However, with half the season also complete, we can take advantage of quirks in the schedule. Roughly eight closers merit consideration, including Jose Valverde, Joe Borowski, Jeremy Accardo, and Alan Embree, but by selecting J.J. Putz(2360), Takashi Saito(2200), Kevin Gregg(1430), and Matt Capps(1000), we save salary compared to our normal bullpen, and more importantly, none of these closers face each other for the rest of the year. While Putz will play Papelbon and Boston for three more games, we otherwise maximize our save opportunities by fielding this quartet of relievers.

Russ Martin(1290) laps the field in terms of value, and though neither Joe Mauer(1890) nor Brian McCann(1880) own great numbers to date, both appear on hot streaks and should produce solid returns in the second half.

Justin Morneau(2620) and Prince Fielder(1850) appear automatic, and after his recent hot streak, so does Ryan Howard(3240), who appears likely to serve as a primary DH.

With Ian Kinsler injured and Kelly Johnson platooning, second base once again features the least quality depth of any position. Chase Utley(2850) and Brandon Phillips(1160) will start almost every week for us, and with Colorado's Kaz Matsui facing a really tough initial schedule, Howie Kendrick(1320) seems to offer more upside than Dan Uggla.

Ryan Braun(1500) belongs on every roster, and with B.J. Upton(1000) due back from the DL, he offers too much upside to skip. Akinori Iwamura(1400) seems a good alternative if either of those guys struggles, especially since he sees many more at-bats than Josh Fields. Finally, an excess of cap room right off the bat prompted us to take ARod(3630) and start him over Upton initially.

Almost everyone should start with Jose Reyes(2460) and Hanley Ramirez(2150) at shortstop, and amidst several viable options, J.J. Hardy(1030) offers too much value to skip.

Our first pass of picking outfielders netted us Grady Sizemore(2760), Matt Holliday(2730), Gary Sheffield(2630), Magglio Ordonez(1770), Curtis Granderson(1550), Hunter Pence(1500), Shane Victorino(1340), and Corey Hart(1120). We then added Alex Rios(1970) despite some reservations about how his Home Run Derby performance might affect him, and finally selected Chris B. Young(1000) as our last guy on the bench since he's produced good value despite both extended slumps and injuries. If healthy, he offers as much upside as almost anyone on our team.

Mid-Season Fantasy Baseball

SP(6)
Jake Peavy: Sun:@ARI(B.Webb)
Jeremy Bonderman: Fri:@SEA(J.Washburn)
Josh Beckett: Sun:TOR(D.McGowan)
C.C. Sabathia: Sat:KC(G.Meche)
Roy Halladay: Thu:@BOS(T.Wakefield)
Erik Bedard: Fri:CHW(M.Buehrle)
Cole Hamels: Sat:STL(M.Maroth)
James Shields: Thu:NYY(A.Pettitte)
John Maine: Fri:CIN(B.Arroyo)
Jon Papelbon: 4 Home vs. TOR.

Deploying most of our cheapest pitchers seems the strongest initial gamble, with Sabathia and Bedard then joining Hamels, Shields, Maine, and of course, Papelbon.

On offense, we see no need to use McCann, Kendrick, Upton, or Hardy right now, and Holliday and Victorino just don't enjoy good schedules. Alex Rios probably deserves a lineup slot, but we neither see a viable roster spot not excess cap room unless we bench Fielder, an idea that makes us uncomfortable despite Fielder's recent problems at the plate.

Rotohelp.com(No standings available)
Week 15: July 13-July 16

 
C	Joe Mauer		1890
C	Russ Martin		1290
1B	Justin Morneau		2620
1B	Prince Fielder		1850
2B	Chase Utley		2850 
2B	Brandon Phillips	1160
3B	Ryan Braun		1500
3B	Akinori Iwamura		1400
SS	Jose Reyes		2460 
SS	Hanley Ramirez		2150
OF	Grady Sizemore		2760 
OF	Gary Sheffield		2630 
OF	Magglio Ordonez		1770
OF	Curtis Granderson	1550
OF	Hunter Pence		1550
OF	Corey Hart		1120
DH	Alex Rodriguez		3630
DH	Ryan Howard		3240

SP	C.C. Sabathia		2490
SP	Erik Bedard		2160
SP	Cole Hamels		1450
SP	James Shields		1280
SP	John Maine		1120
SP	Jon Papelbon		1950
RP	J.J. Putz		2360
RP	Takashi Saito		2200
RP	Kevin Gregg		1430
RP	Matt Capps		1000

Total Salary for Week 15b:	54810

Today's Fantasy Rx: All-Star Game tonight at 7pm(CDT) on Fox.