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July
7th
2007
Your Daily Fantasy Rx
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2007 NL LPR: Week 14

by Tim Polko

Today's Fantasy Rx

Welcome to our weekly LPR rankings, our primary method of identifying highly skilled and consistently effective pitchers. While we have not changed this system since last season, feel free to refer to this key for a complete description of the codes. We have included the five most recent 2007 QA scores for each starter, along with the 10 most recent QA scores for each reliever, tabulating all data through July 4th. Pitchers with no QA scores have not pitched this year, so do not roster any of them unless you see someone ready to return to the majors from the minors or the DL.


1
3ACXZ - Jake Peavy(24544)
ABCZ - Derek Lowe(45534)
ABX - Brad Penny(55544)
A - Ian Snell(45243)
Aaron Harang(52423)

abcxz - Heath Bell(4533532444)
ay - Saul Rivera(4340532344)

A third straight bad week for NL pitchers results in the departures from this ranking of Tony Pena, Brad Hennessey, and Jason Isringhausen. Yes, Penny and Rivera returned up here, but in general, few National League pitchers qualify as truly safe investments with nearly everyone occasionally struggling in recent works. Hopefully a few days of rest will refresh those pitchers lucky enough to skip the All-Star festivities in favor of preparing for the second half.


2
3ABCXYZ - Roy Oswalt(43234)
3ABXY - John Smoltz(44343)
3BCYZ - Chris Carpenter(3)
BCXYZ - Brandon Webb(43333)
by - Adam Wainwright(23334)

3abcxyz - Billy Wagner(3404554553)
3Cbcyz - Aaron Heilman(2435522425)
abcyz - Bob Wickman(3344544124)
abxy - Pedro Feliciano(3345544253)
abxy - Cla Meredith(3552555320)
a - Doug Brocail(2344441244)


3
C - Dontrelle Willis(34050)
Zach Duke(33320)

abcxyz - Chad Qualls(4542344055)
abcxyz - Trevor Hoffman(5334443335)
cx - Ryan Madson(5524431323)


A
BXZ - Greg Maddux(33344)
BC - Carlos Zambrano(53543)
BX - David Bush(30435)
CX - Randy Johnson(44340)
X - Shawn Hill(44434)
X - Tim Hudson(04355)
X - Wandy Rodriguez(24434)
X - Justin Germano(35550)
X - Ted Lilly(03344)
X - Jason Marquis(04335)
John Maine(40444)
Chris Young(30444)
Sean Marshall(54030)
Rich Hill(30302)


B
CYZ - Ben Sheets(53334)
CZ - Pedro Martinez
Y - Hong-chih Kuo(33040)
Cole Hamels(34033)
Josh Johnson(0005)

Cax - Brett Myers(5455434443)
Carlos Villanueva(4222554434)


C
Z - Paul Maholm(24344)
c - Matt Belisle(23320)
Barry Zito(04024)
Jon Lieber(31521)
Doug Davis(03023)


X
bcyz - Brad Thompson(30443)
Jeff Francis(42532)
Russ Ortiz(34330)


Y
Edgar Gonzalez(33423240)


Z
abcxyz - Ryan Dempster(3242355455)


a
y - Micah Bowie(34400)

bcxyz - Mike Gonzalez(4554443542)
bcxyz - Jose Valverde(4332544554)
bcxyz - Francisco Cordero(3354444551)
bcxyz - Dan Wheeler(3345534512)
bcxyz - Scott Linebrink(3441234423)
bcyz - Brad Lidge(5544444132)
bcyz - Brian Fuentes(4455242225)
bxyz - Jonathan Broxton(5523432434)
bxy - Takashi Saito(4455354355)
cxy - Russ Springer(2345453555)
cxz - Jason Isringhausen(4534455345)
cxz - Derrick Turnbow(5355442544)
bx - Damaso Marte(3444322554)
by - Jorge Julio(4554344523)
cx - Randy Flores(4314433334)
cz - Rudy Seanez(4242342554)
x - Carlos Marmol(3444245445)
x - Yoel Hernandez(4541554414)
x - Justin Miller(4544334435)
x - Matt Wise(4434535434)
x - LaTroy Hawkins(5444454233)
x - Kirk Saarloos(4404443452)
x - Ryan Franklin(4334433454)
x - Mike Zagurski(3434053544)
x - Jared Burton(3454542530)
x - Armando Benitez(3444354105)
x - Kevin Cameron(4245243443)
x - Tyler Yates(4533344325)
x - Brad Hennessey(3243344434)
x - Oscar Villarreal(2124344434)
x - Chin-hui Tsao(4234442323)
x - Joe Smith(2244503431)
y - Joe Beimel(2544405533)
y - Manuel Corpas(4421524245)
y - Juan Cruz(4122444432)
y - J.C. Romero(2202433544)
z - Jeremy Affeldt(1414553534)
z - Neal Cotts(2043453410)
Jon Rauch(4443445244)
Brian Moehler(5354423444)
Kelvin Jimenez(4443544411)
Jonathan Sanchez(3242344444)
Zach McClellan(4442445213)
Antonio Alfonseca(3453422432)


b
Kyle Lohse(34013)

cyz - Will Ohman(3235453433)
cyz - Mike Wuertz(4343333441)
xyz - Chad Cordero(4153251445)
xyz - Bob Howry(4543433325)
cz - Scott Schoeneweis(4443514452)
cz - Tom Gordon(325351544)
xy - Peter Moylan(4553334413)
c - John Grabow(4020245255)
x - Elmer Dessens(5234335435)
x - Matt Capps(4323155353)
x - Tyler Johnson(1355402334)
y - Brett Tomko(5332351423)
y - Salomon Torres(3335242430)
y - Gary Majewski(4432332040)
y - Greg Aquino(14551223)
y - Matt Smith(423220033)
z - Eddie Guardado
Renyel Pinto(2542353543)
Todd Coffey(3045423524)
Royce Ring(45543333)
Geoff Geary(3430341421)
Taylor Tankersley(4030125502)
Josh Sharpless(222332)
Tim Hamulack
Scott Cassidy
Chris Booker


c
z - Braden Looper(23104)
z - Clay Hensley(01230)

xz - David Weathers(4433333243)
z - Brandon Medders(3442253431)
z - Jonah Bayliss(1033534233)
Jose Mesa(4543324320)
Blaine Boyer(45452)
Ambiorix Burgos(3334134142)
Scott Eyre(0225353323)
Yhency Brazoban(4050)
Franquelis Osoria


x
Chad Billingsley(004)

y - Clay Condrey(4130413344)
z - Guillermo Mota(4334353433)
Shawn Chacon(4353343444)
Taylor Buchholz(2554334433)
Ramon Ramirez(3540355431)
Brad Salmon(5141335334)
Matt Lindstrom(5533423340)
Tony Pena(3234333443)
Rafael Soriano(3230353053)


y
Chad Paronto(3353442345)
Vinnie Chulk(3345254433)
Brandon Lyon(4354423422)
Trever Miller(5024423425)
Fabio Castro(30034)
Joey Devine(4)


z
Jay Bergmann(43400)

Ryan Speier(441)
Scott Munter(3)


1 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2007.
2 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2006.
3 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2005.


QA score for starts: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any starter who pitches at least 5 innings and fulfills the following skill qualifications: K>=IP-2, BB<=IP/3, H<=IP, HR<=1, and G-F>=1.00. Any starter who does not reach at least one of the required statistical goals or fails to pitch 5 innings earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

QA score for relief outings: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any reliever who retires at least one batter and fulfills the following skill qualifications: K>=IP, BB=0, H<=IP, HR=0, and G-F>=1.00. Any reliever who does not reach at least one of the required statistical goals or fails to retire a batter earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

Starters must pitch in five games before earning any of the following DOM or DIS ratings. Relievers must appear in no less than 10 games before earning DOM/DIS consideration.

A - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2007 starts
B - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2006 starts
C - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2005 starts

X - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2007 starts
Y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2006 starts
Z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2005 starts

a - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2007 relief outings
b - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2006 relief outings
c - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2005 relief outings

x - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2007 relief outings
y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2006 relief outings
z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2005 relief outings


Today's Fantasy Rx: Another round of minor league pitchers reached the majors this week as Shane Youman, Yusmeiro Petit, Jo-Jo Reyes, and Tim Redding all could see a couple more starts this month. Only Petit appears a particularly safe investment right now, though Mike Pelfrey, who should move into the Mets' bullpen, might offer even more upside if you see him available in any NL keeper leagues. Of course, unless you can risk potential qualitative disasters, trusting any of these pitchers on your active roster right now seems a mistake with hitters generally set to gain a short-term edge for the next couple of weeks due to both scheduling and the weather.


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Please e-mail your comments to tim@rotohelp.com.
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