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July
1st
2007
Your Daily Fantasy Rx
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Our Philosophy

2007 Week in Preview: Week 14

by Tim Polko

Today's Fantasy Rx

Schedule recommendations for teams with 8 games

Good for hitters / Bad for pitchers
Chicago White Sox: 4 Home vs. BAL; 4 Home vs. MIN.
Minnesota: 4 Road at NYY; 4 Road at CHW.


Schedule recommendations for teams with 7 games

Good for hitters / Good for pitchers
Chicago Cubs: 4 Road at WAS; 3 Road at PIT.
Los Angeles Dodgers: 4 Home vs. ATL; 3 Home vs. FLO.
Milwaukee: 4 Road at PIT; 3 Road at WAS.
San Diego: 4 Home vs. FLO; 3 Home vs. ATL.

Good for hitters / Bad for pitchers
Arizona: 4 Road at STL; 3 Road at CIN.
Baltimore: 4 Road at CHW; 3 Road at TEX.
Boston: 1 Home vs. TEX; 3 Home vs; TB: 3 Road at DET.
Cleveland: 1 Home vs. TB; 3 Road at DET; 3 Road at TOR.
Houston: 3 Home vs. PHI; 4 Home vs. NYM.
New York Mets: 3 Road at COL; 4 Road at HOU.
New York Yankees: 4 Home vs. MIN; 3 Home vs. LAA.
Oakland: 3 Home vs. TOR; 4 Home vs. SEA.
Pittsburgh: 4 Home vs. MIL; 3 Home vs. CHC.
Seattle: 3 Road at KC; 4 Road at OAK.
St. Louis: 4 Home vs. ARI; 3 Home vs. SF.
Tampa Bay: 1 Road at CLE; 3 Road at BOS; 3 Road at KC.
Texas: 1 Road at BOS; 3 Home vs. LAA: 3 Home vs. BAL.
Washington: 4 Home vs. CHC; 3 Home vs. MIL.

Bad for hitters / Good for pitchers
Atlanta: 4 Road at LAD; 3 Road at SD.
Florida: 4 Road at SD; 3 Road at LAD.


Schedule recommendations for teams with 6 games

Good for hitters / Bad for pitchers
Cincinnati: 3 Home vs. SF; 3 Home vs. ARI.
Colorado: 3 Home vs. NYM; 3 Home vs. PHI.
Detroit: 3 Home vs. CLE; 3 Home vs. BOS.
Kansas City: 3 Home vs. SEA; 3 Home vs. TB.
Los Angeles Angels: 3 Road at TEX; 3 Road at NYY.
Philadelphia: 3 Road at HOU; 3 Road at COL.
San Francisco: 3 Road at CIN; 3 Road at STL.
Toronto: 3 Road at OAK; 3 Home vs. CLE.


Pitchers with 2 starts(to deploy everywhere you own them):
Joe Blanton: Tue:TOR(J.Litsch); Sun:SEA(R.Feierabend)
Micah Bowie: Tue:CHC(C.Zambrano); Sun:MIL(C.Capuano)
Mark Buehrle: Mon:BAL(E.Bedard); Sat:MIN(B.Bonser)
Chris Capuano: Tue:@PIT(S.Youman); Sun:@WAS(M.Bowie)
Fausto Carmona: Mon:TB(A.Sonnanstine); Sat:@TOR(S.Marcum)
Roger Clemens: Mon:MIN(B.Bonser); Sat:LAA(J.Lackey)
Lenny DiNardo: Mon:TOR(J.Towers); Sat:SEA(F.Hernandez)
Ryan Feierabend: Tue:@KC(J.de la Rosa); Sun:@OAK(J.Blanton)
Aaron Harang: Tue:SF(B.Zito); Sun:ARI(R.Johnson)
Felix Hernandez: Mon:@KC(G.Meche); Sat:@OAK(L.DiNardo)
Scott Kazmir: Tue:@BOS(D.Matsuzaka); Sun:@KC(G.Meche)
Ted Lilly: Mon:@WAS(J.Simontacchi); Sat:@PIT(J.Van Benschoten)
Braden Looper: Mon:ARI(B.Webb); Sat:SF(T.Lincecum)
Derek Lowe: Mon:ATL(J.Smoltz); Sat:FLO(S.Mitre)
Greg Maddux: Tue:FLO(S.Olsen); Sun:ATL(K.Davies)
Daisuke Matsuzaka: Tue:TB(S.Kazmir); Sun:@DET(N.Robertson)
Gil Meche: Mon:SEA(F.Hernandez): Sun:TB(S.Kazmir)
Sergio Mitre: Mon:@SD(D.Wells); Sat:@LAD(D.Lowe)
Scott Olson: Tue:@SD(G.Maddux); Sun:@LAD(R.Wolf)
Roy Oswalt: Tue:PHI(A.Eaton); Sun:NYM(Ol.Perez???)
John Smoltz: Mon:@LAD(D.Lowe); Sat:@SD(D.Wells)
Andrew Sonnanstine: Mon:@CLE(F.Carmona); Sat:@KC(J.Thomson)
Jeff Suppan: Mon:@PIT(J.Van Benschoten); Sat:@WAS(J.Simontacchi)
John Van Benschoten: Mon:MIL(J.Suppan); Sat:CHC(T.Lilly)
Javier Vazquez: Tue:BAL(D.Cabrera); Sun:MIN(C.Silva)
Chien-ming Wang: Tue:MIN(C.Silva); Sun:LAA(E.Santana)
Brandon Webb: Mon:@STL(B.Looper); Sat:@CIN(H.Bailey)
David Wells: Mon:FLO(S.Mitre); Sat:ATL(J.Smoltz)
Woody Williams: Mon:PHI(J.Moyer); Sat:@NYM(T.Glavine)
Randy Wolf: Tue:ATL(K.Davies); Sun:FLO(S.Olsen)
Carlos Zambrano: Tue:@WAS(M.Bowie); Sun:@PIT(S.Youman)

Pitchers with 2 starts to deploy only in leagues that don't count qualitative stats:
Erik Bedard: Mon:@CHW(M.Buehrle); Sat:@TEX(B.McCarthy)
Boof Bonser: Mon:@NYY(R.Clemens); Sat:@CHW(M.Buehrle)
Paul Byrd: Tue:@DET(N.Robertson); Sun:@TOR(J.Towers)
Daniel Cabrera: Tue:@CHW(J.Vazquez); Sun:@TEX(K.Millwood)
Kyle Davies: Tue:@LAD(R.Wolf); Sun:@SD(G.Maddux)
Adam Eaton: Tue:@HOU(R.Oswalt); Sun:@COL(J.Hirsh?)
Kason Gabbard: Mon:TEX(B.McCarthy): Sat:@DET(J.Bonderman)
Tom Glavine: Mon:@COL(J.Hirsh); Sat:@HOU(W.Williams)
Jason Hirsh?: Mon:NYM(T.Glavine); Sun:PHI(A.Eaton)
Randy Johnson: Tue:@STL(T.Wellemeyer); Sun:@CIN(A.Harang)
Brandon McCarthy: Mon:@BOS(K.Gabbard); Sat:BOS(E.Bedard)
Kevin Millwood: Tue:LAA(E.Santana); Sun:BAL(D.Cabrera)
Jamie Moyer: Mon:@HOU(W.Williams); Sat:@COL(R.Lopez)
Nate Robertson: Tue:CLE(P.Byrd); Sun:BOS(D.Matsuzaka)
Ervin Santana: Tue:@TEX(K.Millwood); Sun:@NYY(C.Wang)
Carlos Silva: Tue:@NYY(C.Wang); Sun:@CHW(J.Vazquez)
Jason Simontacchi: Tue:CHC(C.Zambrano); Sat:MIL(J.Suppan)
Josh Towers?: Mon:@OAK(L.DiNardo); Sun:CLE(P.Byrd)
Todd Wellemeyer: Tue:ARI(R.Johnson); Sun:SF(B.Zito)
Shane Youman?: Tue:MIL(C.Capuano); Sun:CHC(C.Zambrano)???
Barry Zito: Tue:@CIN(A.Harang); Sun:@STL(T.Wellemeyer)


Diamond Challenge

While we really didn't want to spend a move this week, Ian Kinsler's injury leaves us with little choice. We'll re-purchase Howie Kendrick and drop Josh Bard.

SP(6)
Johan Santana: Wed:@NYY(M.Mussina)
Roy Oswalt: Tue:PHI(A.Eaton); Sun:NYM(Ol.Perez???)
John Smoltz: Mon:@LAD(D.Lowe); Sat:@SD(D.Wells)
Ben Sheets: Thu:@PIT(T.Gorzelanny)
Jake Peavy: Thu:FLO(B.Kim)
Roy Halladay: Fri:CLE(C.Lee)
Brandon Webb: Mon:@STL(B.Looper); Sat:@CIN(H.Bailey)
John Lackey: Sat:@NYY(R.Clemens)
C.C. Sabathia: Thu:@DET(J.Verlander)
Josh Beckett: Thu:TB(J.Howell)
Chris Young: Wed:FLO(J.Johnson)
Felix Hernandez: Mon:@KC(G.Meche); Sat:@OAK(L.DiNardo)
Jon Papelbon: 1 Home vs. TEX; 3 Home vs. TB; 3 Road at DET.

With strikeouts and wins still more important to us than saves, we'll deploy Peavy and Young with our four likely doubles.

Kendrick sends Kinsler to the bench, Delmon Young replaces the hurting Taveras, and Hill and Morneau stay seated since we can't find a roster slot for either player.

Rotohelp.com(10th lg; 113th div; 1790th overall)
Week 14: July 2-July 8

 
C	Brian McCann		880
C	Russ Martin		680 
1B	Albert Pujols		2050 
1B	Ryan Howard		1420 
2B	Howie Kendrick		520
2B	Kelly Johnson		400 
3B	Garrett Atkins		1150
3B	Mark Teahen		750
SS	Jose Reyes		1610 
SS	Hanley Ramirez		1100
OF	Matt Holliday		1410 
OF	Manny Ramirez		1390
OF	Barry Bonds		830 
OF	Magglio Ordonez		820 
OF	Delmon Young		750
OF	Shane Victorino		560
DH	David Wright		1550
DH	Prince Fielder		910 

SP	Roy Oswalt		1550 
SP	John Smoltz		1260 
SP	Jake Peavy		1180
SP	Brandon Webb		1130
SP	Chris Young		880
SP	Felix Hernandez		840
RP	Francisco Cordero	1260 
RP	Takashi Saito		1200
RP	Joe Borowski		1110 
RP	Matt Capps		600

Total Salary for Week 14: 	29790


Diamond Challenge - 2nd Season

SP(6)
Johan Santana: Wed:@NYY(M.Mussina)
Roy Oswalt: Tue:PHI(A.Eaton); Sun:NYM(Ol.Perez???)
John Smoltz: Mon:@LAD(D.Lowe); Sat:@SD(D.Wells)
Jake Peavy: Thu:FLO(B.Kim)
John Lackey: Sat:@NYY(R.Clemens)
C.C. Sabathia: Thu:@DET(J.Verlander)
Jeremy Bonderman: Sat:BOS(K.Gabbard)
Daisuke Matsuzaka: Tue:TB(S.Kazmir); Sun:@DET(N.Robertson)
Dan Haren: Fri:SEA(Jef.Weaver)
Tim Hudson: Thu:@LAD(B.Penny)
Cole Hamels: Wed:@HOU(C.Sampson)
Randy Wolf: Tue:ATL(K.Davies); Sun:FLO(S.Olsen)
Jon Papelbon: 1 Home vs. TEX; 3 Home vs. TB; 3 Road at DET.

Along with Oswalt, Smoltz, Dice-K, Wolf, and Papelbon, Peavy and Haren both rank as solid options, with Haren claiming the last slot for cap reasons.

Offensively, Kelly Johnson replaces Kinsler, Morneau subs for Rios, and then McCann, Hardy, and Upton stay benched.

Rotohelp.com(7th lg; 36th div; 246th overall)
Week 14: July 2-July 8

C	Victor Martinez		1310 
C	Russ Martin		680
1B	Prince Fielder		910 
1B	Kevin Youkilis		580 
2B	Howie Kendrick		520
2B	Kelly Johnson		400
3B	Mike Lowell		1070
3B	Mark Teahen		750
SS	Jose Reyes		1610
SS	Hanley Ramirez		1100
OF	Vladimir Guerrero	1880
OF	Matt Holliday		1410 
OF	Grady Sizemore		1380
OF	Magglio Ordonez		820 
OF	Ken Griffey		790
OF	Shane Victorino		560 
DH	Justin Morneau		1180
DH	Corey Hart		430

SP	Roy Oswalt		1550 
SP	John Smoltz		1260
SP	Daisuke Matsuzaka	950 
SP	Dan Haren		940
SP	Randy Wolf		490
SP	Jon Papelbon		900
RP	Francisco Cordero	1260
RP	Takashi Saito		1200 
RP	Jose Valverde		1100
RP	Al Reyes		750

Total Salary for Week 14: 	27780


Internet Challenge

We also will reluctantly purchase Howie Kendrick here, dumping Rich Harden, who likely won't rejoin the rotation until after the break and seems a far riskier play than anyone else we own.

SP(6)
Johan Santana: Wed:@NYY(M.Mussina)
Roy Oswalt: Tue:PHI(A.Eaton)
Ben Sheets: Thu:@PIT(T.Gorzelanny)
Jake Peavy: Thu:FLO(B.Kim)
Brandon Webb: Mon:@STL(B.Looper)
Greg Maddux: Tue:FLO(S.Olsen)
Josh Beckett: Thu:TB(J.Howell)
Daisuke Matsuzaka: Tue:TB(S.Kazmir)
Dan Haren: No start.
Felix Hernandez: Mon:@KC(G.Meche)
Matt Cain: Wed:@CIN(B.Arroyo)
Jon Papelbon: 1 Home vs. TEX; 3 Home vs. TB.

All these guys break along expected lines as the five home starts seem the logical plays, as opposed to the road starters, who face tougher offenses in worse pitchers' parks. Papelbon will join the starters.

Kendrick obviously replaces Kinsler, and Manny also subs for the hurting Taveras, who joins Hafner, Upton, and Rios on our bench.

Rotohelp.com(9th lg; 219th overall)
Week 14a: July 2-July 5

 
C	Victor Martinez		1310 
C	Brian McCann		880 
1B	Ryan Howard		1420
1B	Prince Fielder		910
2B	Kelly Johnson		400 
3B	David Wright		1550
3B	Mark Teahen		750
SS	Jose Reyes		1610 
SS	Hanley Ramirez		1100
OF	Matt Holliday		1410 
OF	Manny Ramirez		1390
OF	Barry Bonds		830 
OF	Delmon Young		750
OF	Shane Victorino		560 
OF	Corey Hart		430
DH	Albert Pujols		2050 
DH	Bill Hall		900


SP	Roy Oswalt		1550 
SP	Jake Peavy		1180 
SP	Josh Beckett		1000
SP	Greg Maddux		1040
SP	Daisuke Matsuzaka	950
SP	Jon Papelbon		900  
RP	Francisco Cordero	1260
RP	Takashi Saito		1200
RP	Joe Borowski		1110 
RP	Matt Capps		600

Total Week 14a Salary:		29560


Fantasy Baseball & Fanball.Com Cap Challenge (aka Budget Baseball)
(Same rules = same rosters and moves for both teams)

SP(6)
Johan Santana: Wed:@NYY(M.Mussina)
Roy Oswalt: Tue:PHI(A.Eaton); Sun:NYM(Ol.Perez???)
John Lackey: Sat:@NYY(R.Clemens)
Jake Peavy: Thu:FLO(B.Kim)
Josh Beckett: Thu:TB(J.Howell)
C.C. Sabathia: Thu:@DET(J.Verlander)
Ben Sheets: Thu:@PIT(T.Gorzelanny)
Chris Young: Wed:FLO(J.Johnson)
Cole Hamels: Wed:@HOU(C.Sampson)
Jon Papelbon: 1 Home vs. TEX; 3 Home vs. TB; 3 Road at DET.

Oswalt, Peavy, Beckett, Young, and Papelbon appear fairly automatic, and then Sheets claims the last spot over Hamels.

With plenty of cap problems on offense, we reluctantly will reserve Albert Pujols so we can bench Josh Bard and deploy Garrett Atkins and Brian McCann. Adrian Gonzalez, Kinsler, Upton, Stephen Drew, Swisher, and Baldelli stay seated.

Rotohelp.com(FB: 7th lg; 677th overall)
& Rotohelp.com(FC: 11th lg; 1465th overall)
Week 14: July 2-July 8

 
C	Joe Mauer		1890 
C	Brian McCann		1880 
1B	Ryan Howard		3240
1B	Prince Fielder		1850 
2B	Chase Utley		2850 
2B	Brandon Phillips	1160
3B	David Wright		2900  
3B	Mark Teahen		1980
SS	Jose Reyes		2460 
SS	Hanley Ramirez		2150
OF	Grady Sizemore		2760 
OF	Matt Holliday		2730 
OF	Barry Bonds		2560 
OF	Delmon Young		1500
OF	Magglio Ordonez		1770 
OF	Willy Taveras		1460 
DH	Garrett Atkins		2240
DH	Chris B. Young		1000


SP	Roy Oswalt		3070 
SP	Jake Peavy		2730 
SP	Josh Beckett		2520
SP	Ben Sheets		2030 
SP	Chris Young		1760
SP	Jon Papelbon		1950
RP	Takashi Saito		2200
RP	Joe Borowski		2100
RP	Jose Valverde		1880
RP	Matt Capps		1000

Total Salary for Week 14:	59620


Today's Fantasy Rx: The most egregious All-Star error on the AL side looks like the fan selection of Ivan Rodriguez. While Jeremy Guthrie, Orlando Cabrera, Kevin Youkilis, Gary Sheffield, and especially Curtis Granderson deserved berths, Jim Leyland spent his discretionary moves correctly on Johan Santana and Victor Martinez. Of course, he could have left Santana in the fan vote, thereby making room for a Rangers' reliever over Mike Young and opening a spot for Cabrera or Youkilis, but none of these picks seems terrible. We just wish Guthrie and either Joe Blanton or Chad Gaudin appeared on the fan ballot instead of the relievers.

Conversely, Tony La Russa stocked his roster with closers in an apparent attempt to win the All-Star game while ignoring a multitude of equally deserving pitchers. Selecting Freddy Sanchez for the Pirates over Ian Snell stupefies us, especially since that move deprived us of seeing Hanley Ramirez on the team and led to the choice of Jose Valverde. While the players tremendously erred by voting for Brian Fuentes, and we can understand La Russa's choices of Billy Wagner and Takashi Saito, skipping Ramirez baffles us. The decision to put Tom Gorzelanny into the fan vote instead of Snell similarly makes no sense. John Maine also appears gypped.

With the best remaining choices in both leagues not even on the ballot for the fan vote, please vote here for Kelvim Escobar and Roy Oswalt before Thursday's deadline of 6PM (EDT). Voting for Tom Gorzelanny or even Chris Young also appears acceptable in the NL, but Escobar holds a fairly sizable statistical lead on Jeremy Bonderman due to the latter's injury issues.


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