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June
23rd
2007
Your Daily Fantasy Rx
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2007 NL LPR: Week 12

by Tim Polko

Today's Fantasy Rx

Welcome to our weekly LPR rankings, our primary method of identifying highly skilled and consistently effective pitchers. While we have not changed this system since last season, feel free to refer to this key for a complete description of the codes. We have included the five most recent 2007 QA scores for each starter, along with the 10 most recent QA scores for each reliever, tabulating all data through June 20th. Pitchers with no QA scores have not pitched this year, so do not roster any of them unless you see someone ready to return to the majors from the minors or the DL.


1
23ABXY - John Smoltz(45044)
2ABCXYZ - Brandon Webb(55443)
3ACXZ - Jake Peavy(54245)
BX - Brad Penny(43555)
A - Ian Snell(14545)
X - Aaron Harang(35352)

Though he hasn't looked like a reigning Cy Young winner to date, Webb at least remains a remarkably safe play, his appearance up here overdue by several weeks.

abcxz - Heath Bell(5554443345)
acxz - Jason Isringhausen(5251453445)
ax - Tony Pena(4335343234)
a - Jon Rauch(4215443444)

While Sean Marshall, Sergio Mitre, Dave Borkowski, and even Francisco Cordero all slipped from the top ranking this week, the appearance of Pena and Rauch nicely highlights to emerging late-inning options. Both Pena and Rauch appears likely to spend at least some time closing within the next year or so, and given their relatively low profiles, you might even have the chance to grab them at this time in your keeper leagues.


2
3ABCXYZ - Roy Oswalt(34243)
3BCYZ - Chris Carpenter(3)
by - Adam Wainwright(44233)

3abcxyz - Billy Wagner(1334434045)
3Cbcyz - Aaron Heilman(3235425424)
abcxyz - Bob Wickman(3525423344)
abxy - Cla Meredith(5244353355)
abxy - Pedro Feliciano(4053523345)
a - Doug Brocail(2344441244)


3
C - Dontrelle Willis(32340)
Zach Duke(23333)

abcxyz - Chad Qualls(3344334542)
abcxyz - Trevor Hoffman(3523435334)
cx - Ryan Madson(3343443552)


A
BCZ - Derek Lowe(45445)
BXZ - Greg Maddux(33433)
BX - David Bush(35304)
CX - Randy Johnson(44434)
Xz - Jay Bergmann(43434)
B - Cole Hamels(33234)
X - Shawn Hill(44434)
X - Sean Marshall(44540)
X - Jeff Francis(45425)
X - Justin Germano(34355)
X - Tim Hudson(43043)
X - Jason Marquis(32043)
John Maine(44404)
Rich Hill(44430)
Wandy Rodriguez(24244)
Rodrigo Lopez(04043)
Orlando Hernandez(53320)
Ted Lilly(03103)


B
CYZ - Ben Sheets(23533)
CZ - Pedro Martinez
C - Carlos Zambrano(42353)
Y - Hong-chih Kuo(0330)
Josh Johnson(0)

Cax - Brett Myers(5455434443)
Carlos Villanueva(3224542225)


C
Xc - Matt Belisle(53233)
Z - Paul Maholm(43243)
Doug Davis(44030)
Barry Zito(53040)
Jon Lieber(31521)


X
Josh Fogg(43433)
Aaron Cook(34342)
Russ Ortiz(34330)
Anthony Reyes(43332)


Y
Edgar Gonzalez(35243)


Z
abcxyz - Ryan Dempster(5324235545)


a
y - Micah Bowie(22344)

bcxyz - Mike Gonzalez(4554443542)
bcxyz - Brian Fuentes(4345335445)
bcxyz - Francisco Cordero(5343354444)
bcxyz - Scott Linebrink(4543343434)
bcxyz - Dan Wheeler(2351533455)
bcyz - Brad Lidge(5544444132)
bxyz - Jonathan Broxton(3423545552)
bxy - Takashi Saito(4545425445)
cxz - Derrick Turnbow(4524453554)
bx - Damaso Marte(2334344432)
by - Jorge Julio(0544434455)
cx - Randy Flores(4333443144)
cy - Russ Springer(4344423454)
cz - Rudy Seanez(1513535424)
xy - Manuel Corpas(5523444421)
c - Jose Mesa(4244433454)
x - LaTroy Hawkins(4455454444)
x - Yoel Hernandez(4541554414)
x - Kirk Saarloos(4404443452)
x - Carlos Marmol(4434341344)
x - Jared Burton(3454542530)
x - Mike Zagurski(4245434340)
x - Joe Smith(4543224450)
x - Antonio Alfonseca(3534345342)
x - Armando Benitez(3145313444)
x - Chin-hui Tsao(4334234442)
x - Kevin Cameron(3342452434)
x - Brad Hennessey(4413553243)
x - Brad Salmon(4334505141)
x - Doug Slaten(1032444440)
x - Matt Lindstrom(3343425533)
x - Rafael Soriano(4455333230)
x - Oscar Villarreal(3443212434)
x - Tyler Yates(1223334453)
y - Joe Beimel(4044442544)
y - Saul Rivera(4333424340)
z - Guillermo Mota(5252144334)
z - Neal Cotts(2043453410)
Justin Miller(4142344454)
Kelvin Jimenez(4443544411)
Zach McClellan(4442445213)
Jonathan Sanchez(4332423444)
Brian Moehler(2132553544)

Yes, Ryan Dempster and Bobby Howry appear fairly established in the Cubs' pen, but despite his flyball issues, Carlos Marmol merits plenty of attention as the club's closer-in-training. He belongs on someone's roster in almost all NL leagues.


b
cxyz - Brad Thompson(34304)
Kyle Lohse(44340)

cxyz - Jose Valverde(4234332544)
cyz - Mike Wuertz(3442443433)
cyz - Will Ohman(0522553235)
xyz - Bob Howry(0353453454)
xyz - Chad Cordero(3453441532)
cy - Duaner Sanchez
cz - Tom Gordon(325351544)
cz - Scott Schoeneweis(2332354443)
xy - Peter Moylan(1452444553)
xy - Brett Tomko(5532545332)
c - John Grabow(3405402024)
x - Elmer Dessens(5234335435)
x - Tyler Johnson(1355402334)
x - Geoff Geary(4323343034)
x - Matt Capps(3333313432)
y - Salomon Torres(3335242430)
y - Gary Majewski(4432332040)
y - Greg Aquino(14551223)
y - Matt Smith(423220033)
z - Eddie Guardado
Todd Coffey(3322304542)
Renyel Pinto(4023210254)
Taylor Tankersley(2034403012)
Royce Ring(45)
Josh Sharpless(222332)
Tim Hamulack
Scott Cassidy
Chris Booker


c
z - Braden Looper(42310)
z - Clay Hensley(01230)

xz - David Weathers(3332443333)
z - Brandon Medders(3442253431)
z - Jonah Bayliss(4310335342)
z - Danny Kolb(222)
Blaine Boyer(45452)
Ambiorix Burgos(3334134142)
Scott Eyre(5010225353)
Yhency Brazoban(4050)
Franquelis Osoria


x
Chad Billingsley(4445343343)
Ryan Franklin(3443443344)
Ramon Ramirez(3540355431)
Shawn Chacon(3343332435)
Brian Shouse(3330033443)


y
Vinnie Chulk(4543433452)
Brandon Lyon(3222444354)
Trever Miller(3353434050)
Chad Paronto(3432333534)
Juan Cruz(2352524122)
Rick White(3323220234)
Fabio Castro(30034)
Joey Devine(4)


z
Jeremy Affeldt(0534451414)
Ryan Speier(441)
Jose Capellan(15233)
Scott Munter(3)


1 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2007.
2 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2006.
3 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2005.


QA score for starts: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any starter who pitches at least 5 innings and fulfills the following skill qualifications: K>=IP-2, BB<=IP/3, H<=IP, HR<=1, and G-F>=1.00. Any starter who does not reach at least one of the required statistical goals or fails to pitch 5 innings earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

QA score for relief outings: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any reliever who retires at least one batter and fulfills the following skill qualifications: K>=IP, BB=0, H<=IP, HR=0, and G-F>=1.00. Any reliever who does not reach at least one of the required statistical goals or fails to retire a batter earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

Starters must pitch in five games before earning any of the following DOM or DIS ratings. Relievers must appear in no less than 10 games before earning DOM/DIS consideration.

A - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2007 starts
B - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2006 starts
C - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2005 starts

X - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2007 starts
Y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2006 starts
Z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2005 starts

a - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2007 relief outings
b - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2006 relief outings
c - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2005 relief outings

x - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2007 relief outings
y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2006 relief outings
z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2005 relief outings


Today's Fantasy Rx: Neither of this week's trades offers much fantasy upside, but at least the acquisition of Mike Maroth by the Cardinals for a PTBN could produce interesting results. As you likely know, southpaws moving to the NL receive a significant short-term boost, though right now Maroth's skills seem so shaky that only extremely adventuresome owners should risk adding him at this time.

The Cubs' dump trade of Michael Barrett to San Diego for Rob Bowen and Kyler Burke also doesn't create any obvious opportunity for owners. Burke ranks as little more than an A-ball afterthought, leaving the deal as Bowen for Barrett and Barrett's baggage. I don't anticipate Barrett struggling to adjust to the Padres' pitching staff, but switching to PETCO will create more offensive difficulties. The move also demotes Josh Bard into a traditional back-up role, nicely eviscerating his roto value in all save the deepest leagues. Conversely, Bowen seemingly moves into a starting role in Chicago, but nothing in his statistical history suggests he'll succeed as more than a platoon player. Hopefully this trade simply precedes an overdue promotion for Geovany Soto from AAA Iowa, though I instead suspect the Cubs simply will suffer with Bowen and Koyie Hill behind the plate until Henry Blanco's return from the DL allows them to focus solely on defense behind the plate at the expense of any overt offensive production whatsoever.


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