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June
1st
2007
Your Daily Fantasy Rx
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2007 AL LPR: Week 9

by Tim Polko

Today's Fantasy Rx

Welcome to our weekly LPR rankings, our primary method of identifying highly skilled and consistently effective pitchers. While we have not changed this system since last season, feel free to refer to this key for a complete description of the codes. We have included the five most recent 2007 QA scores for each starter, along with the 10 most recent QA scores for each reliever, tabulating all data through May 30th. Pitchers with no QA scores have not pitched this year, so do not roster any of them unless you see someone ready to return to the majors from the minors or the DL.


1
2ABCX - Jeremy Bonderman(43445)
2ACX - John Lackey(54544)
3ACX - Josh Beckett(45404)
ABCXYZ - Kelvim Escobar(44044)
AX - Justin Verlander(43543)

Though Jeremy Guthrie, Daisuke Matsuzaka, and Joe Blanton all slipped to a lower level this week, the emergence of Jeremy Bonderman for the first time this year heartens me given that he spent more time atop this ranking in 2006 than almost any other pitcher. I see no reason why he shouldn't remain one of the safest AL pitchers to own for the rest of 2007, followed closely by the other four starters currently ranked up here.

ax - Matt Guerrier(4455445343)
ax - Hideki Okajima(3534443324)

Two relatively unheralded middle relievers ascend to spend the first week atop this tanking of any AL reliever this season. Okajima certainly merits ownership almost everywhere since his emergence as Boston's backup closer, and while Guerrier technically remains in middle relief, he at least belongs on someone's roster in all AL leagues due to the qualitative stability he provides.


2
3BCYZ - Roger Clemens
3ABX - C.C. Sabathia(33444)
ABCXYZ - Johan Santana(34454)
CX - Jose Contreras(43443)

3abcxyz - Mariano Rivera(5445354544)
3abcyz - Justin Duchscherer(2344443251)
abcxyz - Chad Bradford(5353344455)
abcxyz - Akinori Otsuka(4453335543)
abcxyz - Scot Shields(2343435355)
abcxy - J.J. Putz(4353544545)
BYby - Francisco Liriano
CZby - Hector Carrasco(4352022222)
bcyz - Mike MacDougal(0245443123)
bxy - Alan Embree(3434233324)
by - Dennys Reyes(4014453513)
Mike Myers(2344403043)


3
ACXYZ - Roy Halladay(35523)
BCZ - Felix Hernandez(00233)
Bcz - Julian Tavarez(43324)
CZ - Andy Pettitte(33424)
C - Matt Clement
Y - Kevin Millwood(22420)
Z - Bartolo Colon(34201)

abcxyz - Huston Street(5335344245)
bcz - Todd Jones(2445324132)
x - Aaron Fultz(5333530033)


A
BCXZ - A.J. Burnett(44554)
BXby - Fausto Carmona(44433)
BCX - Erik Bedard(45343)
XY - Dan Haren(44532)
X - Jeremy Guthrie(44533)
X - Gil Meche(45303)
X - Daniel Cabrera(32403)
Jake Westbrook(40450)
Chad Gaudin(50342)


B
Y - Mike Mussina(43125)
Y - Curt Schilling(33225)
Cha Seung Baek(03344)
Joe Saunders(342)

Baek entered the years as one of the most intriguing sixth starters in the majors, and with a trend this positive, you need to try to grab him if he remains available in your AL league.


C
Z - Rich Harden(535)
Jae Seo(20403)

abx - Scott Downs(4354330422)
Victor Zambrano(153323)


X
Y - James Shields(33323)
Chien-ming Wang(43434)
Joe Blanton(45522)
Daisuke Matsuzaka(34423)
Odalis Perez(33542)
Dustin McGowan(33034)


Y
Luke Hudson(0)


a
Shaun Marcum(3534)

bcxyz - Joe Nathan(5543433434)
bcxyz - Bobby Jenks(5254335434)
bcxyz - Juan Rincon(4330353443)
bcyz - Francisco Rodriguez(5424534244)
bxy - Pat Neshek(5415433344)
bxy - Jon Papelbon(0354544432)
bxy - C.J. Wilson(2424534344)
bxy - Javier Lopez(5342452034)
cxz - Eric Gagne(4444335533)
cxz - Rafael Betancourt(4325533435)
cxz - Al Reyes(3433443513)
xyz - Justin Speier(5345335345)
bx - Tom Mastny(2522433244)
xy - Joaquin Benoit(4323454244)
xz - Chris Ray(3423454545)
b - Shawn Camp(3224244441)
x - Jeremy Accardo(3555343535)
x - Lenny DiNardo(3344525423)
x - Jamie Walker(3143453343)
y - J.C. Romero(4533452202)
z - Jason Frasor(2131535345)
Matt Thornton(4455432534)
Brandon Morrow(5434454342)
Boone Logan(5245243443)
Brandon Duckworth(4525003441)
Eric O'Flaherty(4442430521)
Danys Baez(5340152333)


b
y - Joe Kennedy(42320)

cyz - Roberto Hernandez(4334440321)
cyz - Kyle Farnsworth(3334242052)
cyz - Matt J. Miller
xyz - Fernando Rodney(3434344343)
cy - Scott Williamson(245545235)
cz - Kiko Calero(3323253305)
y - Scott Feldman(4324023243)
y - Wes Littleton(4434)
y - Jon Huber(42)
y - Joe Nelson
z - Mike Burns
Joel Pineiro(2433214353)
Fernando Cabrera(4332101414)
Luis Vizcaino(4133432213)
Rafael Perez(45)
Craig Breslow


c
xz - George Sherrill(3435225553)
yz - Mike Timlin(233324534)
x - Bobby Seay(3353235353)
z - David Riske(2533324454)
z - Tim Byrdak(4535325)
z - Chris Reitsma(4213333430)
z - Jay Witasick(3532512233)
z - Ron Villone(43432)
Jose Mesa(5330342444)
Octavio Dotel(343)


x
Jimmy Gobble(4323355534)
Frank Francisco(4342524325)
Dustin Moseley(3424353343)
Chris Bootcheck(3244345323)
Kyle Snyder(4244333333)
Jason Davis(2333254334)
Jay Marshall(3333343423)
Sean Henn(4333413332)
Brian Bruney(4413323331)


y
Brian Burres(0334)

Joe Borowski(2425144433)
Sean Green(32443422)
Zach Miner(41)
Craig Hansen


z
Ron Flores(34444)
Manny Delcarmen(4)


1 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2007.
2 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2006.
3 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2005.


QA score for starts: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any starter who pitches at least 5 innings and fulfills the following skill qualifications: K>=IP-2, BB<=IP/3, H<=IP, HR<=1, and G-F>=1.00. Any starter who does not reach at least one of the required statistical goals or fails to pitch 5 innings earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

QA score for relief outings: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any reliever who retires at least one batter and fulfills the following skill qualifications: K>=IP, BB=0, H<=IP, HR=0, and G-F>=1.00. Any reliever who does not reach at least one of the required statistical goals or fails to retire a batter earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

Starters must pitch in five games before earning any of the following DOM or DIS ratings. Relievers must appear in no less than 10 games before earning DOM/DIS consideration.

A - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2007 starts
B - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2006 starts
C - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2005 starts

X - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2007 starts
Y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2006 starts
Z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2005 starts

a - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2007 relief outings
b - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2006 relief outings
c - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2005 relief outings

x - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2007 relief outings
y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2006 relief outings
z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2005 relief outings


We'll continue tomorrow with this week's NL LPR article.


Internet Challenge

With obvious cap problems this weekend, an upcoming road trip to Toronto and Colorado for Tampa, and no faith remaining in Garrett Atkins, we're making an overdue move for B.J. Upton while cutting Atkins.

SP(6)
Johan Santana: Sun:@OAK(C.Gaudin)
Roy Oswalt: Fri:STL(A.Wainwright)
Ben Sheets: Sun:FLO(D.Willis)
Jake Peavy: Fri:@WAS(L.Speigner)
Brandon Webb: Fri:@NYM(J.Maine)
Greg Maddux: No start.
Josh Beckett: Sun:NYY(A.Pettitte)
Daisuke Matsuzaka: No start.
Dan Haren: No start.
Rich Harden: No start(DL).
Felix Hernandez: No start.
Matt Cain: No start.
Jon Papelbon: 3 Home vs. NYY.

With Gaudin still on fire and Santana no better than a marginal play, we're comfortable deploying Oswalt, Sheets, Peavy, Webb, Beckett, and Papelbon.

Upton replaces Atkins in the lineup, and Bonds, heading to Philly, plays for the hurting Willy Taveras. Chris Iannetta, David Wright, Bill Hall, and Rocco Baldelli all remain benched.

Rotohelp.com(15th lg; 311th overall)
Week 9b: June 1-June 3

 
C	Brian McCann		880 
C	Josh Bard		300
1B	Travis Hafner		1380
1B	Prince Fielder		910
2B	Ian Kinsler		630
2B	Kelly Johnson		400 
3B	Mark Teahen		750
3B	B.J. Upton		410
SS	Jose Reyes		1610 
SS	Hanley Ramirez		1100
OF	Matt Holliday		1410
OF	Manny Ramirez		1390
OF	Alex Rios		1000 
OF	Barry Bonds		830
OF	Delmon Young		750
OF	Shane Victorino		560 
DH	Albert Pujols		2050
DH	Ryan Howard		1420 

SP	Roy Oswalt		1550 
SP	Ben Sheets		1220
SP	Jake Peavy		1180
SP	Brandon Webb		1130 
SP	Josh Beckett		1000
SP	Jon Papelbon		900  
RP	Francisco Cordero	1260
RP	Takashi Saito		1200
RP	Ryan Dempster		1130
RP	Joe Borowski		1110

Total Week 9b Salary:		29460


Today's Fantasy Rx: Minnesota's promotion of Kevin Slowey to start tonight against Oakland fixed the biggest hole in the Twins' rotation while providing fantasy owners with another top young pitching prospect. However, if someone already grabbed Slowey in your league, a likely occurrence in many keeper leagues, you might receive a nice boost from taking a gamble on Ryan Feierabend. He pitched decently against the Angels earlier in the week, and while more seasoning wouldn't hurt the 21-year-old, his 3.86 ERA on a 37:19 K:BB in 49 IP over 10 GS for AAA Tacoma(PCL) this spring suggests he deserves an extended audition with the Mariners if Horacio Ramirez remains sidelined. Though his long-term upside looks very bright, he could post surprisingly solid numbers in 2007 if given a few more chances.


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