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May
15th
2007
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2007 Hitting: AL Spring Prospects II

by Tim Polko

Today's Fantasy Rx

Minnesota: Matt Tolbert, 24, IF-S
36/95 for .379/.450/.579 with 2 HR, 19 RBI, 22 R, 1/1 SB%,
and an 11:13 BB:K for AAA Rochester(IL).

Though I don't see the Twins turning away from Jason Bartlett to play someone considered a future utilityman at best, Tolbert's performance after skipping from High-A straight to the International league merits serious attention. His improved plate discipline supports a high BA, albeit not one anywhere his current level of excellence. He also possesses at least good doubles' power and intriguing position flexibility, but given Tolbert's limited quantitative upside, wait until he gains Ron Gardenhire's favor before looking to roster him anywhere.


New York Yankees: Shelley Duncan, 27, OF-R
39/119 for .328/.406/.672 with 11 HR, 26 RBI, 25 R, 0/2 SB%,
and a 17:27 BB:K for AAA Scranton/Wilkes-Barre(IL).

No, the Yankees probably won't give their long-time minor leaguer a shot any time soon, but with Melky Cabrera looking horrible and no veterans outside of ARod, Jeter, and Posada meeting expectations, Duncan deserves a shot at echoing the past performances of Kevin Maas and Shane Spencer. Few AAA hitters match Duncan's raw power potential, and realistically the 2001 second round pick possesses the pedigree necessary to gain admission to the home clubhouse in the Bronx. I see sufficient upside here to recommend you target Duncan if Joe Torre gives him more than a single start at any point.


Oakland: J.J. Furmaniak, 27, SS-R
45/144 for .313/.413/.563 with 9 HR, 20 RBI, 31 R, 12/16 SB%,
and a 24:38 BB:K for AAA Sacramento(PCL).

The multitude of injuries plaguing the Athletics this spring haven't impacted their infield situation to any great extent, but when either Bobby Crosby or Mark Ellis makes their inevitable trip to the DL, Furmaniak appears the only logical call-up from Triple-A. He can handle any infield position, offers both power and speed, and owns an overall skill set that should transition to the majors from the PCL without significant difficulty. Teams looking for MIF upside definitely should target Furmanik once he reaches Oakland.


Seattle: Wladimir Balentien, 22, OF-R
46/152 for .322/.388/.566 with 10 HR, 30 RBI, 25 R, 9/10 SB%,
and a 15:27 BB:K for AAA Tacoma(PCL).

If the Mariners dump before the trade deadline, Adam Jones appears in line for Ichiro's job in center while Balentien, the PCL home run leader, should replace Jose Guillen in right. Balentien actually possesses a remarkably similar skill set to Guillen, owning very impressive power, a little speed, an excellent arm, and sufficient plate discipline issues to leave his .300 BA at severe risk. However, his transition to Triple-A after a worrisome Double-A campaign last summer severely raises his prospect status in my eyes, making Balentien a definite player to acquire as soon as he reaches Seattle with any promise of regular playing time.


Tampa Bay: Shawn Riggans, 26, C-R
31/105 for .295/.348/.514 with 4 HR, 14 RBI, 10 R, 0/2 SB%,
and a 4:27 BB:K for AAA Durham(IL).

With Dioner Navarro continuing to struggle, hopefully Josh Paul's history with Joe Maddon won't keep him in the majors much longer. Riggans offers much more upside to the Rays, and though his plate discipline definitely concerns me, he just might claim the starting job if given a shot in the majors. Target Riggans anywhere you need a solid second catcher for an AL-only team.


Texas: Marlon Byrd, 29, OF-R
50/137 for .365/.435/.555 with 4 HR, 23 RBI, 21 R, 3/5 SB%,
and a 12:22 BB:K for AAA Oklahoma(PCL).

Considering Nelson Cruz can't find regular playing time in the Rangers' outfield and Victor Diaz beat out Byrd for the most recent call-up, Byrd will need to maintain this level of performance indefinitely to earn a real shot in Texas. Unfortunately, despite the relative lack of success experienced by the current outfield corps, he'll need to take full advantage of any opportunity he receives or else risk spending the rest of the summer in the minors. Since I also don't see much quantitative upside here, you probably should ignore Byrd unless he somehow works his way into Ron Washington's outfield rotation.


Toronto: Curtis Thigpen, 24, C/2B-R
26/96 for .271/.336/.427 with 3 HR, 12 RBI, 10 R, 0/0 SB%,
and an 8:12 BB:K for AAA Syracuse(IL).

Recently deployed at second base for a couple of games, Thigpen appears increasingly unlikely to emerge as the long-term solution for Toronto behind the plate. The Jays already appear to prefer defense over offense at shortstop, and with Aaron Hill secure at second base, Thigpen appears to possess little utility as more than a reserve. Barring a significant improvement in either performance or projected playing time, ignore Thigpen if Toronto promotes him later this summer.


We'll continue tomorrow with National League hitting prospects.


Today's Fantasy Rx: The Twins promoted 1B Garrett Jones from AAA Rochester(IL) today, and with .305/.351/.525 averages with 5 HR, 23 RBI, and an 8:25 BB:K in 119 AB, he possesses the skills to succeed in the majors if given a chance. With Ron Gardenhire awarding such luminaries as Mike Redmond, Jeff Cirillo, and Jason Tyner the vast majority of DH at-bats this spring, Jones probably deserves a chance to contribute, but all reports indicate that he'll return to the minors this weekend when the club needs a fifth starter. I see no reason to invest in Jones until he gains some semblance of regular playing time in Minnesota.


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Please e-mail your comments to tim@rotohelp.com.
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