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April 1st 2007 |
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Your Daily Fantasy Rx
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Our Philosophy |
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by Tim Polko Schedule recommendations for teams with 7 games
Good for hitters / Good for pitchers
Good for hitters / Bad for pitchers
Bad for hitters / Good for pitchers
Good for hitters / Good for pitchers
Good for hitters / Bad for pitchers
Bad for hitters / Good for pitchers
Bad for hitters / Bad for pitchers
Pitchers with 2 starts to deploy only in leagues that don't count qualitative stats:
To select this roster for the CDM Diamond Challenge, we employed a variation of a method introduced to us in Wise Guy Baseball a few years ago. We determine the expected final stats we need to finish near the top of each category, calculated what each of our 18 hitter slots and 10 pitcher slots need to average to generate those totals, and then divided our projected stats for each player by the needed value to result in a CDM percentage value(PV) indicating their usefulness. Then we divided that percentage by each player's listed salary (moved several decimal places to the left so that we're not dealing with values looking like .0000X) to give us their approximate CDM Points Per Dollar (PPD) to help us determine our roster. We added a final step this year of adding the PV and PPD together to give us a better ranking of both player's actual contributions and their value to our team. We're simply labeling this new stats CDM Value(CV) for simplicity. Strategy: Due to the fact that the Rockies split six of their first thirteen weeks between home and road series while spending another four weeks on the road, we're not going with our normal Colorado platoon. Instead we'll simply draft Rockies' hitters on their own merits and deploy them when desired. We're also avoiding any obvious BA drags in the hope of insuring we maintain a high average all year. Lastly, we will roster at least a dozen starting pitchers as usual, especially with the automatic selection of Jon Papelbon giving us significant extra flexibility on our pitching staff. Catchers: Brian McCann($880/1203CV) should pace the field among catchers even before we consider salary. With Joe Mauer and Victor Martinez too expensive for our taste and Mike Napoli disqualified due to his BA issues, we opted for the cheapest healthy options: Josh Bard($300/1465CV) and Chris Iannetta($340/1111CV). Although Mike Piazza ranks as a better value, we trust Iannetta and love Bard's spot in the middle of the Padres' lineup. First Base: Once again we're not messing around and will just take Albert Pujols($2050/2040CV) right off the bat. We'll deploy him whenever we have the cap room. However, the automatic picks everyone should own are Ryan Howard($1420/1462CV) and Travis Hafner($1380/1438CV). Though we don't really trust Howard, we're not risking not running him, especially when we're already so down on Morneau that he won't appear on our roster despite a much cheaper salary. Due to a lack of power, we then opted for Frank Thomas($890/1612CV) since he provides cheap power and will exceed that projected value when healthy. Several other options also appeal to us, including Derrek Lee, Carlos Delgado, Ryan Shealy, Lance Berkman, Mark Teixeira, and David Ortiz, but due to either salary or general lineup concerns, none of them will make our final roster. Second Base: A relative wasteland this year, only Ian Kinsler($630/1790CV) and Howie Kendrick($520/1777CV) seem solid picks. Chase Utley simply costs too much, Chris Burke's BA remains too low, and while we liked Jorge Cantu until two days ago, he shouldn't appear on any rosters after getting sent to the minors. We strongly considered both Rickie Weeks and Kaz Matsui, but since neither really appeal to us, we're going to take an extra starting pitcher and than wait to see how the season develops. Third Base: With basically ten solid options at this position, you almost can't go wrong. However, we're not willing to spend for ARod or Miguel Cabrera, and we don't want to deal with the injury risks of Scott Rolen and Chipper Jones. B.J. Upton, a potential dynamite bargain at $410, also won't make our team until we see him playing regularly. The only seemingly automatic choice looks like David Wright($1550/2022CV), who just offers massive upside if he hits between Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran as expected. We'll complement him with Mark Teahen($750/1899CV), who edges Alex Gordon($600) due to higher reliability. Lastly, while Aramis Ramirez appeals to us for his power, Garrett Atkins($1150/800CV) seems a safer pick, along with offering a more cap-friendly option if he needs to sub for Teahen. Shortstop: After missing so horribly on Clint Barmes last year, we're taking the straight value at this position: Jose Reyes($1610/2210CV), Hanley Ramirez($1100/2106CV), and Julio Lugo($910/2181). They all appear excellent investments, and while Bill Hall's power intrigues us, we feel confident we can find replacement power in the outfield. Outfield: Of course, the outfield just doesn't offer many great bargains that also will keep our BA high. Guys like Corey Hart, Nelson Cruz, and Chris Young seem decent but won't belong on our roster until they begin performing in regular playing time. Conversely, Willy Taveras($860/2308CV), Delmon Young($750/2060CV), Rocco Baldelli($750/2032CV), and Shane Victorino($560/2017CV) appear far safer investments as Taveras offers a ton of steals and the latter trio possess five-category upside. If prorated to the 550 AB of an everyday player, J.D. Drew($940/1672CV) looks like a great addition when healthy, especially given his place hitting behind a couple of guys with OBPs over .400. Speaking of high-OBP guys, Manny Ramirez($1390/1529) offers the BA/power combo we need, as does Matt Holliday($1410/1472). We still really like Grady Sizemore, but due to his high salary and some general concerns regarding his spring, he didn't make our initial cut. Designated Hitter: Rather than identify any regular DHs, we simply will rotate our backups from the other six positions as our cap needs change on a weekly basis, essentially using Pujols as much as possible. Starting Pitcher: First, Jon Papelbon($900) simply must be owned since he gives you a fifth closer to provide needed extra saves. We plan to deploy him every week unless he either hits the DL or we have six solid double starts. Rather than focusing on stats with the rest of our starters, we simply want highly-skilled pitchers on teams likely to compete for the playoffs, preferably in good pitchers' parks. Using that barometer, Johan Santana($1960), Roy Oswalt($1550), Chris Carpenter($1520), John Smoltz($1260), Ben Sheets($1220), Jake Peavy($1180), Brandon Webb($1130), and Rich Harden($890) all look fairly automatic to us. Despite his questionable offensive support, Felix Hernandez($840) remains really solid due to his nearly incomparable upside. We really wanted C.C. Sabathia but just don't trust his health right now Respectable candidates we nevertheless dismissed included Jason Schmidt, Barry Zito, John Lackey, Jeremy Bonderman, Daisuke Matsuzaka, and Ervin Santana. Our next round of pitchers emerged from a pack of Carlos Zambrano($1220), Roy Halladay($1140), Dan Haren($940), Chris Young($880), Dave Bush($860), and Matt Cain($840). After considering each pitcher's skills, and more importantly, how their schedules meshed with those of our other ten starters, we opted for Halladay and Young. Lastly, we wanted to set our rotation to guarantee a maximum number of double-starts during the first four weeks of the season. While nine of our current starters pitch twice in week one while splitting their next doubles between weeks three, four, and five, only Harden and Young look lineup up for two starts in week two. Reviewing all the pitchers starting Wednesday and Thursday of week one left us with Cole Hamels, Josh Beckett($1000), and A.J. Burnett($880) as strong options, and since we trust the veterans more than Hamels, we completed our starting staff with the latter duo. Relief pitcher: No truly cheap closers emerged in the spring, though we still hope to see someone like Mike MacDougal, Brian Wilson, or even Chris Reitsma claim a job. After reviewing every closer under $1300, we settled on Francisco Cordero($1260), Takashi Saito($1200, and new Florida stopper Jorge Julio($920) as the best investments at this time. While we seriously considered Bob Wickman and Chris Ray, Joe Borowski($1110) netted our last slot since he costs less than the other two and appears set for plenty of save opps. in Cleveland. However, if someone like Wilson soon emerges, Borowski looks like our first cut unless he starts very quickly.
Roster for Rotohelp.com C Brian McCann 880 C Chris Iannetta 340 C Josh Bard 300 1B Albert Pujols 2050 1B Ryan Howard 1420 1B Travis Hafner 1380 1B Frank Thomas 890 2B Ian Kinsler 630 2B Howie Kendrick 520 3B David Wright 1550 3B Garrett Atkins 1150 3B Mark Teahen 750 SS Jose Reyes 1610 SS Hanley Ramirez 1100 SS Bill Hall 900 OF Matt Holliday 1410 OF Manny Ramirez 1390 OF J.D. Drew 940 OF Willy Taveras 860 OF Rocco Baldelli 750 OF Delmon Young 750 OF Shane Victorino 560 SP Johan Santana 1960 SP Roy Oswalt 1550 SP Chris Carpenter 1520 SP John Smoltz 1260 SP Ben Sheets 1220 SP Jake Peavy 1180 SP Roy Halladay 1140 SP Brandon Webb 1130 SP Josh Beckett 1000 SP Jon Papelbon 900 SP Rich Harden 890 SP Chris Young 880 SP A.J. Burnett 880 SP Felix Hernandez 840 RP Francisco Cordero 1260 RP Takashi Saito 1200 RP Joe Borowski 1110 RP Jorge Julio 920
Oswalt and Sheets look automatic, and then Peavy and Felix also seem solid. Despite the high cost, Santana and Carpenter appear preferable to Smoltz, Halladay, Webb, and a hurting Papelbon in Kansas City and Texas. We wanted Thomas deployed, but Toronto's schedule seems awful. We similarly prefer Manny and Pujols over Holliday, Hall over Ramirez, and Atkins over Wright. In addition to those moves, a cap crunch then forces Iannetta into our second DH spot.
Rotohelp.com(No standings) C Brian McCann 880 C Josh Bard 300 1B Ryan Howard 1420 1B Travis Hafner 1380 2B Ian Kinsler 630 2B Howie Kendrick 520 3B Garrett Atkins 1150 3B Mark Teahen 750 SS Jose Reyes 1610 SS Bill Hall 900 OF Manny Ramirez 1390 OF J.D. Drew 940 OF Willy Taveras 860 OF Rocco Baldelli 750 OF Delmon Young 750 OF Shane Victorino 560 DH Albert Pujols 2050 DH Chris Iannetta 340 SP Johan Santana 1960 SP Roy Oswalt 1550 SP Chris Carpenter 1520 SP Ben Sheets 1220 SP Jake Peavy 1180 SP Felix Hernandez 840 RP Francisco Cordero 1260 RP Takashi Saito 1200 RP Joe Borowski 1110 RP Jorge Julio 920 Total Salary for Week 1: 29940
We normally repeat most of our DC roster, but after due consideration, we decided to change a few pitchers in order to maximize our April matchups and add a backup second baseman for short-term flexibility during the season. From our DC squad, we cut Chris Carpenter, John Smoltz, Chris Young, and A.J. Burnett while adding Daisuke Matsuzaka, Dan Haren, and Matt Cain, who look like much better fits for our initial rotation considering we don't need to worry about double starts in IC. To support Ian Kinsler and Howie Kendrick, the comparably priced Kaz Matsui, who might not be a great fit but offers a ton of SB upside at a pretty deficient position for efficient offensive production. We also opted against taking Frank Thomas here since we wanted an extra outfielder, instead selecting Alex Rios since he seems reasonably priced for plenty of upside.
SP(6) Santana, Oswalt, Sheets, Felix, and Cain all begin the year with fairly low-risk appearances, and then Papelbon's injury convinced us to deploy Harden in the hope that his superb spring translates into a hot start. All our Rockies will play with Colorado at home, leaving Josh Bard, Ian Kinsler, David Wright, Hanley Ramirez, and Alex Rios on the bench.
Rotohelp.com(No standings) C Brian McCann 880 C Chris Iannetta 340 1B Ryan Howard 1420 1B Travis Hafner 1380 2B Howie Kendrick 520 2B Kazuo Matsui 500 3B Garrett Atkins 1150 3B Mark Teahen 750 SS Jose Reyes 1610 SS Bill Hall 900 OF Manny Ramirez 1390 OF J.D. Drew 940 OF Willy Taveras 860 OF Rocco Baldelli 750 OF Delmon Young 750 OF Shane Victorino 560 DH Albert Pujols 2050 DH Matt Holliday 1410 SP Johan Santana 1960 SP Roy Oswalt 1550 SP Ben Sheets 1220 SP Rich Harden 890 SP Felix Hernandez 840 SP Matt Cain 840 RP Francisco Cordero 1260 RP Takashi Saito 1200 RP Joe Borowski 1110 RP Jorge Julio 920 Total Week 1a Salary: 29950
As we spent nearly as much time selecting these rosters as our DC/IC teams, we'll provide detailed discussion of these moves in tomorrow's article. For now, we'll just present our initial lineup and deployment decisions.
SP(6) Since we selected this roster to maximize weeks with double starts at the beginning of the season, Santana, Oswalt, Carpenter, Peavy, and Sheets will join Papelbon for this week. The general questions surrounding Mauer right now, coupled with a bad initial schedule, push Josh Bard into the lineup with McCann. Ryan Howard's unimpressive week leaves him on the bench alongside Miguel Cabrera, who generally only will play when we can't afford Pujols. Kinsler bats ninth against all six pitchers this week, making Utley a better play. Neither David Wright nor Hanley Ramirez appear particularly safer bets than Atkins or Drew, leaving the former duo on the bench, and lastly, with Sizemore and Swisher both facing an unflattering schedule and Tampa looking great against the Yankees and Jays despite Baldelli's injury, Holliday, Drew, Baldelli, Taveras, and both Delmon and Chris Young will comprise our outfield. Stephen Drew claims the second DH spot due to the combination of a road trip to Colorado and the lack of similarly cap-friendly player outside of Mauer.
Rotohelp.com(FB: No standings) C Brian McCann 1880 C Josh Bard 1010 1B Prince Fielder 1850 1B Adrian Gonzalez 1420 2B Chase Utley 2850 2B Brandon Phillips 1160 3B Garrett Atkins 2240 3B Mark Teahen 1980 SS Jose Reyes 2460 SS Bill Hall 2410 OF Matt Holliday 2730 OF J.D. Drew 2640 OF Rocco Baldelli 1500 OF Delmon Young 1500 OF Willy Taveras 1460 OF Chris B. Young 1000 DH Albert Pujols 3890 DH Stephen Drew 1450 SP Johan Santana 3410 SP Roy Oswalt 3070 SP Chris Carpenter 3010 SP Jake Peavy 2730 SP Ben Sheets 2030 SP Jon Papelbon 1950 RP Takashi Saito 2200 RP Joe Borowski 2100 RP Jorge Julio 1920 RP Jose Valverde 1880 Total Salary for Week 1: 59730 Taxi Squad C Joe Mauer 1890 1B Ryan Howard 3240 2B Ian Kinsler 1270 3B Miguel Cabrera 3300 3B David Wright 2900 SS Hanley Ramirez 2150 OF Grady Sizemore 2760 OF Nick Swisher 2190 SP Josh Beckett 2520 SP A.J. Burnett 1940 SP Chris Young 1760 SP Rich Harden 1690
If you're looking for a national contest with minimal fees, CDM's newly renamed Fanball.com Fantasy Baseball Cap Challenge, formerly known as Budget Baseball, remains a solid bargain. Remember to go with the best W/K/IP pitchers without regard for ERA or WHIP, then deploy the best offense possible on a weekly basis.
Click
here
to read the previous article.
Please e-mail your comments to tim@rotohelp.com. |
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Daily Fantasy Rx Out of the Frying Pan Article Archives |
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