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February
11th
2007
Your Daily Fantasy Rx
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NL Outfielders: Day Seven

by Tim Polko

Today's Fantasy Rx

National League Outfielders without Positive Draft Value

Quick Key to the tables:
B = Bats.  T = Throws.  Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2006.
Proj. = Rotohelp's projected 2006 stats and fantasy values for each player.
2006 = Each player's final 2006 stat line and fantasy values.
AB = At-bats.  H = Hits.  BA = Batting Average.  HR= Home Runs.
RBI = Runs Batted In.  SB = Stolen Bases.  R = Runs.
Pos = Position qualification based on 20 appearances or max. # of games in 2006.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
RAR = Runs Above Replacement; aRAR = RAR adjusted to
consider a player's 2006 defensive rating in Scoresheet fantasy baseball.

We ranked players by position in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, we listed all players in the league where they began the season.


106.  Rajai DavisPIT PiratesAge: 25B:R   T:R
ABHBAHRRBISBRPos  4x45x5RARaRAR
Proj.
2006142.1430011O-3-3-2.4-2.4

Please refer to our Post-2006 Prospect Review: Pittsburgh for my comments on Davis.


107.  Andy AbadCIN RedsAge: 34B:L   T:L
ABHBAHRRBISBRPos  4x45x5RARaRAR
Proj.
200630.0000000O-3-3-0.5-0.6

Please refer to our Post-2006 Prospect Review: Cincinnati for my comments on Abad.


108.  Jon KnottSD PadresAge: 28B:R   T:R
ABHBAHRRBISBRPos  4x45x5RARaRAR
Proj.
200630.0000000O-3-3-0.5-0.5

Please refer to our Post-2006 Prospect Review: San Diego for my comments on Knott.


109.  Jason LaneHOU AstrosAge: 29B:R   T:L
ABHBAHRRBISBRPos  4x45x5RARaRAR
Proj.500139.2782871663O212026.419.5
200628858.2011545144O-3-1-4.6-8

Widely expected to build on his .267/26/78 campaign in 2005, Lane instead badly slumped after a respectable April, slipping to a horrendous .154/.247/.295 performance in 78 May at-bats. He never regained his starting job, even briefly heading to the minors in July. Upon his return to he found Luke Scott and Aubrey Huff fairly ensconced in starting jobs. This winter's acquisition of Carlos Lee essentially buries Lane, especially with Chris Burke set to replace Willy Taveras in center. Of course, Lane could emerge as a platoon partner for Scott, but since Lane owns a reverse platoon split, that arrangement appears impractical. While Lane at least he still owns a decent skill foundation, he appears unlikely to return to double-digit value barring a change of scenery. Only bid beyond the $4-6 range if you can keep players dealt to the other league.


110.  Buck CoatsCH CubsAge: 24B:L   T:R
ABHBAHRRBISBRPos  4x45x5RARaRAR
Proj.
2006183.1671102O-3-3-1.4-1.1

Please refer to our Post-2006 Prospect Review: Chicago(N) for my comments on Coats.


111.  Mike RestovichCH CubsAge: 27B:R   T:R
ABHBAHRRBISBRPos  4x45x5RARaRAR
Proj.10025.250313014O-2-2-0.3-1.2
2006122.1670100O-3-3-1-1.1

Losing a spring training fight for the last spot on the Cubs' roster to Angel Pagan last year left Restovich stuck in the minors nearly all season. While he briefly surfaced in Chicago, he spent most of the summer at AAA Iowa(PCL), where he posted impressive .293/.374/.560 averages with 27 HR, 85 RBI, and a 52:121 BB:K in 443 AB. His mediocre contact rate suggests he still would struggle to post a decent BA even if given a regular big league job, though considering he turned 28 last month, his window to emerge as more than a AAAA hitter appears very narrow. Signed to a minor league contract by Washington, Restovich needs a great spring even to snag a platoon job with someone like Ryan Church, though even that situation wouldn't make him worth more than a couple of bucks in NL leagues.


112.  Timo PerezSTL CardinalsAge: 31B:L   T:L
ABHBAHRRBISBRPos  4x45x5RARaRAR
Proj.5011.2201404O-4-4-2.5-2.5
2006316.1941303O-3-3-1.7-1.7

Although Perez enjoyed two stints with the Cardinals that secured him his second World Series ring in three years, he generally stayed with AAA Memphis(PCL), posting a surprising .299/.354/.523 performance with 13 HR, 41 RBI, and a 21:27 BB:K in 264 AB. Last month he landed a minor league deal with the Tigers, and while they might have room on the bench for a fifth outfielder, Detroit most likely will stick Perez at AAA Toledo alongside Brent Clevlen and Brandon Watson, then let the trio fight for the right to a promotion upon the inevitable Gary Sheffield injury. However, since Perez no longer possesses any speed of note and can't deliver reliably decent averages, don't employ him as more than roster filler.


113.  Skip SchumakerSTL CardinalsAge: 26B:L   T:R
ABHBAHRRBISBRPos  4x45x5RARaRAR
Proj.256.2400213O-3-3-1-1
20065410.1851223O-3-3-4.2-4.2

Please refer to our Post-2006 Prospect Review: St. Louis for my comments on Schumaker.


114.  Jorge PiedraCOL RockiesAge: 27B:L   T:L
ABHBAHRRBISBRPos  4x45x5RARaRAR
Proj.15040.267520118O111.10.2
20065910.16931014OD-3-3-3.9-4.1

Seemingly set to open the year as the Rockies' fourth outfielder, Piedra instead began 2006 on the DL with a case of plantar fasciitis in his left heel that dated to the previous season. Optioned to AAA Colorado Springs(PCL) in May, he only managed a .239/.314/.428 output with a 15:31 BB:K in 138 AB before a promotion to Colorado. Piedra unsurprisingly failed to claim a share of an open centerfield job, and after two unimpressive months with the Rockies, he departed the organization after refusing an outright assignment to the minors. Although Piedra should resurface in the majors sometime soon given his .275/.327/.489 career averages in 262 AB, his failure to find an NRI to spring training indicates he shouldn't see The Show this summer.


115.  Brandon WatsonWAS/CINAge: 25B:L   T:R
ABHBAHRRBISBRPos  4x45x5RARaRAR
Proj.400106.2651171449O88-11.5-11.5
2006285.1790010O-3-3-3.5-3.5

Please refer to our Post-2006 Prospect Review: Cincinnati for my comments on Watson.


116.  Delwyn YoungLA DodgersAge: 24B:S   T:R
ABHBAHRRBISBRPos  4x45x5RARaRAR
Proj.
200650.0000000O-3-3-0.9-0.8

Please refer to our Post-2006 Prospect Review: Los Angeles(N) for my comments on Young.


117.  Drew AndersonMIL BrewersAge: 25B:L   T:R
ABHBAHRRBISBRPos  4x45x5RARaRAR
Proj.
200691.1110003O-3-3-1.2-1.2

Please refer to our Post-2006 Prospect Review: Milwaukee for my comments on Anderson.


118.  Damian JacksonWAS NationalsAge: 33B:R   T:R
ABHBAHRRBISBRPos  4x45x5RARaRAR
Proj.22552.231416928S2O01-2.1-4.3
200611623.198410116O-3-3-5.7-4.3

Signing a one-year deal with Washington didn't produce pretty results for Jackson, though his OPS only dropped a minute amount despite a nearly 60-point BA plunge from the previous season. He never started running, which ruined his already minimal fantasy value, and after watching him flail at the plate for more than three months, the Nationals first DL'd him in July for an apparently minor esophageal condition and then released him outright a month later. The minor league deal he signed with the Dodgers last month guarantees him little more than a trip to AAA Las Vegas for the summer unless injuries sideline both Ramon E. Martinez and one of the club's starting infielders.


119.  Ricky LedeeLAD/NYMAge: 32B:L   T:L
ABHBAHRRBISBRPos  4x45x5RARaRAR
Proj.20054.270634126O332.11.2
20068516.1882918O-3-3-5-5.4

Generally considered a superb fourth outfielder heading into 2006, Ledee somewhat stumbled out of the gate in April and then missed the remainder of the first half due to a groin strain. He barely played upon his return, lasting just three more weeks with the Dodgers before the Mets claimed him off waivers. Unfortunately, Ledee only eked out .094/.194/.219 averages during his six weeks with New York, gutting his value as he headed into free agency. Ledee finally landed an NRI with Oakland last week, however he doesn't seem a good candidate to contribute as more than an occasional injury replacement with the Athletics unless he both returns to full health and regains his missing plate discipline.


120.  Matt CepickyFLO MarlinsAge: 28B:L   T:R
ABHBAHRRBISBRPos  4x45x5RARaRAR
Proj.256.2401303O-3-3-0.3-0.3
2006182.1110000O-3-4-2.4-2.4

Expected to a win a job on Florida's bench last spring, he ceded his position to Reggie Abercrombie and instead only briefly surfaced with the Marlins. Cepicky spent most of the year posting .266/.352/.403 averages for AAA Albuquerque(PCL), including 7 HR, 34 RBI, and a 44:66 BB:K in 320 AB. Registering such an essentially awful performance in a fairly great hitting environment obviously didn't help his career as Cepicky still hasn't found a job for 2007.


121.  Dewayne WiseCIN RedsAge: 28B:L   T:L
ABHBAHRRBISBRPos  4x45x5RARaRAR
Proj.257.2801313O-2-20.5-5
2006387.1840103O-3-3-3.7-3.7

Wise spent most of July and September in Cincinnati yet failed to post anything resembling an acceptable performance at the plate. While his .184/.184/.237 averages earned him another minor league deal with Reds, neither his previous big league stats nor his .266/.335/.461 output in 154 AB for AAA Louisville(IL) last summer suggest he belongs in the majors. Even if receives another shot in Cincy, I don't envision Wise contributing to any successful fantasy teams.


122.  Eric ReedFLO MarlinsAge: 25B:L   T:L
ABHBAHRRBISBRPos  4x45x5RARaRAR
Proj.17542.2401131016O11-8.5-8.5
2006414.0980036O-4-4-5.9-5.9

Please refer to our Post-2006 Prospect Review: Florida for my comments on Reed.


AL Starting Pitcher Week begins tomorrow.


Today's Fantasy Rx: Only Jason Lane possesses any significant upside among today's outfielders, and he'll need to earn every at-bats he receives this year. Among the rookies, Jon Knott, Brandon Watson, Damian Jackson, and even Eric Reed might contribute in the right circumstances, but none of them looks like a good choice as anything more than a potential FAAB target if they managed to secure regular work in the majors.


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Please e-mail your comments to tim@rotohelp.com.
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