Today's Fantasy Rx

Minnesota's Top 15 Fantasy Prospects for 2007
Roster Filler and Long-Term Prospects
Team Overview and Organization Rankings

Minnesota's Top 15 Fantasy Prospects for 2007

1. Matt Garza, 22, RH Starter
3-6 on a 38:23 K:BB in 50 IP over 9 GS(10G)
with 62 H, 6 HR, a .88 G-F, and a 5.76 ERA.
3-1 on a 33:7 K:BB in 34 IP over 5 GS
with 20 H, 1 HR, a 1.32 G-F, and a 1.85 ERA for AAA Rochester(IL).
6-2 on a 68:14 K:BB in 57.1 IP over 10 GS
with 40 H, 2 HR, a .81 G-F, and a 2.51 ERA for AA New Britain(EL).
5-1 on a 53:11 K:BB in 44.1 IP over 8 GS
with 27 H, 3 HR, a .82 G-F, and a 1.42 ERA for A+ Fort Myers(FSL).

The first of the Twins' quartet of first rounders in 2005, Garza's meteoric ascent through the system this year even exceeded Francisco Liriano's emergence the previous summer. By the time he reached the Twins, Garza owned combined MLE stats of a 115:48 K:BB in 132.1 IP with 107 H and 9 HR, along with a 1.34 G-F and no obvious weakness. He simply dominated batters at every level shy of the majors, and with the Twins pulling him at the rookie IP maximum, Garza appears primed to compete with Alex Gordon and Delmon Young for the 2006 AL Rookie of the Year. I fully expect Garza to break camp as no worse than the Twins' fifth starter, making him a solid option around five bucks in any league and a potentially outstanding piece of in-season trade bait if he develops as anticipated.

2. Glen Perkins, 23, LH Starter
0-0 on a 6:0 K:BB in 5.2 IP over 4 G
with 3 H, 0 HR, a 4-8 G-F, and a 1.59 ERA.
0-1 on a 3:5 K:BB in 4.1 IP over 1 GS
with 6 H, 0 HR, a 2.00 G-F, and a 2.08 ERA for AAA Rochester(IL).
4-11 on a 131:45 K:BB in 117.1 IP over 23 GS
with 109 H, 11 HR, a .51 G-F, and a 3.91 ERA for AA New Britain(EL).

Perhaps Perkins belongs in the Red Wings' rotation next summer, however after his impressive performance down the stretch for the Twins, he should receive every chance to break camp as the second southpaw in the bullpen. He offers more upside for Minnesota in that role than as a starter given the plentiful, equally youthful options available to Ron Gardenhire. Of course, Perkins also could follow in the footsteps of both Johan Santana and Francisco Liriano by spending several months in the Twins' relief corps and then shifting to the rotation, so if he's available in your auction, definitely consider grabbing Perkins during Dollar Days.

3. Alexi Casilla, 22, 2B-S
1/4 for .250/.500/.250 with 0 HR, 0 RBI, 1 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 2:1 BB:K.
50/170 for .294/.375/.382 with 1 HR, 13 RBI, 28 R, 19/23 SB%,
and an 18:20 BB:K for AA New Britain(EL).
107/323 for .331/.390/.406 with 0 HR, 33 RBI, 56 R, 31/37 SB%,
and a 30:36 BB:K for A+ Fort Myers(FSL).

Snatched from the Angels for J.C. Romero, the Ecksteinesque Casilla handled both High-A and Double-A without difficulty, demonstrating solid plate discipline and excellent baserunning ability while holding a high batting average. He owns remarkably similar skills to incumbent second baseman Luis Castillo, who hits free agency next fall just as Casilla should reach the majors for good. While you shouldn't see much return on an investment here until 2008, Casilla appears on track to begin an extended stretch of double-digit fantasy seasons that year, making him a superb mid-round pick in any reasonably deep AL league.

4. Kevin Slowey, 22, RH Starter
4-3 on a 52:13 K:BB in 59.1 IP over 9 GS
with 50 H, 6 HR, a .72 G-F, and a 3.19 ERA for AA New Britain(EL).
4-2 on a 99:9 K:BB in 89.1 IP over 14 GS
with 52 H, 2 HR, a .72 G-F, and a 1.01 ERA for A+ Fort Myers(FSL).

Fantastic command insures that Slowey will reach the majors in the near future, but since he succeeds more on the basis of deception than pure stuff, his margin of error remains much narrower than the club's comparable pitching prospects, especially considering his flyball tendency. Yet with Slowey's ERA as a professional now nicely under 2.00, I'll give him the benefit of the doubt until hitters tell Slowey that he can't remain effective at the highest professional levels. For now, he should spend most of 2007 in the upper minors, and if echoes these marks as expected, he'll displace Carlos Silva in the rotation no later than September.

5. Alex Romero, 23, OF-S
59/236 for .250/.300/.301 with 0 HR, 26 RBI, 20 R, 6/8 SB%,
and a 15:22 BB:K for AAA Rochester(IL).
47/167 for .281/.384/.461 with 5 HR, 16 RBI, 29 R, 15/22 SB%,
and a 26:19 BB:K for AA New Britain(EL).

With only five hits in his first twenty-six AAA at-bats, Romero fell back to the Eastern League by the middle of April. Two solid months of work at New Britain earned him another shot at Rochester, and although plate discipline contributed to a mediocre July, he managed a .291/.371/.372 line on a 10:7 BB:K in 86 August at-bats. Registering a .368/.397/.421 thus far in the Venezuelan Winter League further enhances his prospect credentials, and after another year of seasoning, he should replace Lew Ford as the Twins' fourth outfielder in 2008. I even envision him spending a few seasons as a starter, and after Minnesota started Jason Tyner for much of the second half this summer, Romero no longer appears an inferior option if Jason Kubel can handle center. A late-round pick spent here could pay welcome dividends.

6. Josh Rabe, 28, OF-R
14/49 for .286/.314/.490 with 3 HR, 7 RBI, 8 R, 0/1 SB%,
and a 2:11 BB:K.
106/355 for .299/.362/.411 with 6 HR, 47 RBI, 51 R, 7/11 SB%,
and a 35:37 BB:K for AAA Rochester(IL).

Rabe finally reached the majors in the middle of his fourth campaign at Rochester. Frankly his skills continue vary widely from year-to-year. He demonstrated shockingly strong plate discipline in the minors this summer, then posted the best power numbers of his career in his brief action with the Twins. Despite endearing himself to his teammates in the stretch run, he isn't assured of remaining in the majors by any means. With no certainty of his steal total or power output regardless of his playing time and wide inherent fluctuations in his BA, don't risk rostering Rabe until you see him contributing during the year.

7. J.D. Durbin, 24, RH Starter
4-3 on a 81:50 K:BB in 89 IP over 16 GS
with 67 H, 3 HR, a .80 G-F, and a 2.33 ERA for AAA Rochester(IL).

Finally dominating AAA hitters following a couple of mediocre campaigns at Rochester, Durbin missed his best chance at the majors when a nerve problem in his right biceps forced him to the DL for the year at the beginning of July. Now a dramatic wave of higher-upside youngsters will reach Rochester in the spring, essentially ending any opportunity for Durbin to start on the Twins. Hopefully they'll finally move him to the bullpen, where he profiles as a significant asset and certainly no less than a quality trade chit, albeit not one worthy of fantasy ownership at this time.

8. Matt Moses, 21, SS-R
118/474 for .249/.303/.386 with 15 HR, 72 RBI, 47 R, 2/4 SB%,
and a 35:113 BB:K for AA New Britain(EL).

Moses bombed at Double-A for the second straight season. A contact rate jump from .73 to .76 fueled nearly a forty-point BA improvement, but no other secondary skill compensated for his stagnant power output. Echoing these numbers in the hitter-friendly AFL suggests further problems for Moses, who almost certainly will return for a third AA campaign in 2007, potentially a good idea considering he leapt through A-ball in only two years despite never dominating at any level. Don't write off Moses given his impressive toolbox and relative youth compared to most of his opponents, although cutting him in all save the deepest AL leagues appears justified based on this performance.

9. Denard Span, 22, OF-L
153/536 for .285/.340/.349 with 2 HR, 45 RBI, 80 R, 24/35 SB%,
and a 40:78 BB:K for AA New Britain(EL).

Span's stalled progress required the Twins to exercise Torii Hunter's 2007 option, which gives Span one more season to demonstrate that he deserves Hunter's job. While I see hints of a big leaguer in these numbers, he simply lacks either the power or speed required of a starting outfielder. He probably doesn't even belong on fantasy rosters unless you play in a full AL Ultra league.

10. Anthony Swarzak, 21, RH Starter
11-7 on a 131:60 K:BB in 145.2 IP over 27 GS
with 131 H, 8 HR, a .87 G-F, and a 3.27 ERA for A+ Fort Myers(FSL).

A perfectly pedantic option compared to teammates like Matt Garza and Kevin Slowey, Swarzak's increasing control problems would portend a move to the bullpen if not for his second-half numbers. He registered an 8-3 record and 2.11 ERA on a 58:31 K:BB in 76.2 IP over 13 starts after the Break, unquestionably earning a 2007 rotation slot at AA New Britain. I still suspect he'll settle into a relief role at some point, so don't roster Swarzak next summer unless he slams into the majors on the strength of a Garzaesque campaign in the upper minors.

11. Dave Gassner, 27, LH Starter
2-0 on a 14:9 K:BB in 26.2 IP over 5 GS(6G)
with 29 H, 2 HR, a .86 G-F, and a 4.73 ERA for AAA Rochester(IL).
0-1 on a 2:2 K:BB in 12 IP over 3 GS
with 11 H, 1 HR, a 1.06 G-F, and a 3.75 ERA for A+ Fort Myers(FSL).
0-0 on a 4:0 K:BB in 5 IP over 2 GS
with 4 H,0 HR, a 1.25 G-F, and a 3.60 ERA for R Twins(GCL).

Left elbow surgery sidelined Gassner for the first half of the season, wrecking his chance to start for the Twins after a couple of very strong AAA campaigns. He lost his 40-man roster spot this fall and almost certainly needs a change of scenery before returning to the majors. Fortunately for Gassner, as a left-hander with excellent control, a move to relief should insure him another decade as no less than a AAAA option.

12. Trevor Plouffe, 20, SS-R
112/455 for .246/.333/.347 with 4 HR, 45 RBI, 60 R, 8/13 SB%,
and a 58:93 BB:K for A+ Fort Myers(FSL).

We're seeing slow, albeit consistent progress from the 2004 first rounder. This summer he boosted his average twenty-three points and his OPS thirty-six points despite moving from the Midwest to the Florida State League. A contact rate slide from .83 to .80 kept him from posting more impressive gains, especially considering the improvement in his walk rate. Plouffe's 2007 campaign will tell us if he'll supplant Jason Bartlett in a year or two or merely develop into an infield reserve. His continued lack of power hints at the latter, so wait until he manages a .700+ OPS in the upper minors before considering him anywhere

13. Kevin Cameron, 26, RH Reliever
6-4 on a 65:26 K:BB in 66.1 IP over 40 G
with 53 H, 2 HR, a 2.19 G-F, and a 2.98 ERA for AAA Rochester(IL).

A high walk rate limits Cameron's upside, but with plenty of strikeouts and groundballs in his repertoire, he could succeed if promoted by the Twins. An AFL berth suggests they also view him as a potential contributor in the near future, so consider Cameron if he begins echoing these stats in the majors.

14. Errol Simonitsch, 24, LH Starter
8-14 on an 89:39 K:BB in 148.2 IP over 26 GS(27G)
with 186 H, 19 HR, a 1.35 G-F, and a 4.48 ERA for AA New Britain(EL).

Increasingly high hit rates virtually necessitate a move to the bullpen for the soft-tossing Simonitsch. Good command may keep him employed as an upper-level starter indefinitely, but if he wants to make the majors, he needs to improve his dominance, most likely in a far more limited role.

15. Doug Deeds, 25, OF-L
124/440 for .282/.383/.470 with 14 HR, 72 RBI, 71 R, 4/7 SB%,
and a 70:107 BB:K for AA New Britain(EL).

With these stats a virtual repeat of the .304/.382/.479 Deeds posted at New Britain last year, he desperately needs a shot at Triple-A so the Twins can see if he merits a bench spot in the majors. Given their past hesitance to promote him, I suspect even Deeds' nicely improved plate discipline this year won't lead to any at-bats in Minnesota. He'll need to switch organizations before receiving the chance he deserves.

Roster Filler and Long-Term Prospects

Henry Bonilla, 28, RH Reliever
3-7 and 1 Save on a 63:32 K:BB in 95 IP over 8 GS(35G)
with 89 H, 6 HR, a .84 G-F, and a 4.26 ERA for AAA Rochester(IL).

Finally a minor league free agent after several respectable seasons that just never impressed the Twins, completing his move to the bullpen should give him the chance at the majors Minnesota never provided him. Bonilla could appear on your free agent list as soon as next summer.

Tristan Crawford, 24, RH Reliever
6-5 and 2 Saves on a 97:33 K:BB in 98.1 IP over 2 GS(46G)
with 89 H, 8 HR, a .72 G-F, and a 3.66 ERA for AA New Britain(EL).

Following six increasingly impressive seasons in the lower minors, Crawford reached Double-A this year while continuing to demonstrate solid all-around skills. The nondrafted Alaskan native will merit serious consideration for a final promotion if he maintains these stats at Rochester next summer, though Crawford must impress quickly to avoid slipping behind the approaching cadre of high-round draft picks.

Chris Heintz, 32, C-R
0/1 for .000/.000/.000 with 0 HR, 0 RBI, 1 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 0:0 BB:K.
107/374 for .286/.323/.369 with 3 HR, 39 RBI, 46 R, 0/4 SB%,
and a 23:63 BB:K for AAA Rochester(IL).

Spending his third straight season at Rochester allowed Heintz to remain the Twins' third catcher as the club again promoted him in September. While he lacks any obvious offensive skill other than a decent batting average, negating his value to fantasy teams, Heintz appears in a comfortable situation and continue appearing on this list for a few more years since he's accruing little service time and few at-bats.

Garrett Jones, 25, 1B-L
125/525 for .238/.302/.430 with 21 HR, 92 RBI, 72 R, 3/7 SB%,
and a 49:121 BB:K for AAA Rochester(IL).

Though Jones probably belongs in the majors during his upcoming peak, he needs to improve his contact rate, sending his BA and SLG respectively over .250 and .450. Of course, with career marks in those categories below those minimal standards, I suspect an unimpressive AAAA career awaits Jones, certainly not one worth more than the briefest glance from roto owners.

Beau Kemp, 25, RH Reliever
7-4 on a 35:26 K:BB in 89.1 IP over 49 G
with 92 H, 2 HR, a 2.82 G-F, and a 2.32 ERA for AAA Rochester(IL).

One of the most intriguing minor league free agents this fall, Kemp hasn't allowed more than four homers in any of his seven professional seasons and owns a career ERA well below 3.00. Three increasingly effective AAA performances leave him little to prove in the minors and should warrant no less than a serious NRI. I see no reason he can't emerge as a middle reliever in the majors sometime next summer.

Jason Miller, 24, LH Swingman
3-8 and 1 Save on an 87:36 K:BB in 99.1 IP over 15 GS(32G)
with 101 H, 10 HR, a .65 G-F, and a 3.81 ERA for AAA Rochester(IL).

A fourth round pick in 2000, Miller's role continues to fluctuate despite his obvious upside as a reliever. This summer he posted a 1.82 ERA on a 28:6 K:BB in 24.2 IP over 17 G with 25 H, 2 HR, and a .77 G-F out of the pen, far exceeding his performance as a starter. Miller deserves every chance in camp to compete with Glen Perkins for the second southpaw in Minnesota's relief corps, however he also appears a logical Rule 5 candidate for any savvy organization looking for bullpen help.

Trent Oeltjen, 23, OF-L
120/401 for .299/.378/.411 with 3 HR, 44 RBI, 61 R, 23/34 SB%,
and a 36:58 BB:K for AA New Britain(EL).

The Aussie outfielder reached the upper minors this year, even exceeding a .400 SLG for the first since playing in the Gulf Coast League in 2001. Of course, his limited upside and the club's outfield depth almost certainly will lead Oeltjen to continue his pattern of repeating every level, which likely will send him into minor league free agency in a couple of years before he ever reaches Minnesota.

Yohan Pino, 22, RH Reliever
14-2 and 3 Saves on a 99:20 K:BB in 94 IP over 7 GS(42G)
with 69 H, 4 HR, a .80 G-F, and a 1.91 ERA for A Beloit(Mid).

One of the most dominant relievers in baseball this summer, Pino's continued success in the Venezuelan Winter League could spur his progress up the minor league ladder. Of course, he may never reach the majors with Minnesota due to the wealth of alternatives, but given his impressive strikeout and hit rates, he should move faster than most of his teammates.

Jay Sawatski, 24, LH Reliever
4-2 on a 69:22 K:BB in 75.1 IP over 2 GS(44G)
with 69 H, 3 HR, a 1.50 G-F, and a 2.87 ERA for AA New Britain(EL).
1-0 on a 5:2 K:BB in 8 IP over 2 GS
with 10 H, 0 HR, a .58 G-F, and a 2.25 ERA for A+ Fort Myers(FSL).

An awful AFL campaign virtually demands another year in the minors for Sawatski. Given he also lacks the upside of most of his southpaw competitors, he looks more likely to peak as a AAAA option for the Twins than to emerge as a reliable middle reliever.

Kyle Waldrop, 20, RH Starter
3-2 on a 25:17 K:BB in 45.1 IP over 7 GS(8G)
with 48 H, 4 HR, a 1.78 G-F, and a 3.57 ERA for A+ Fort Myers(FSL).
6-3 on a 62:17 K:BB in 110 IP over 18 GS
with 110 H, 8 HR, a 2.15 G-F, and a 3.85 ERA for A Beloit(Mid).

Another of the Twins' 2004 first rounders, Waldrop's consistently high hit rate and mediocre strikeout rate indicate low long-term upside. He spent most of the last two seasons at Beloit in the Midwest League and didn't impress at Fort Myers after a mid-season promotion. Waldrop's youth and solid control give him plenty of time to develop into a middle-of-the-rotation starter, but given all of Minnesota's superior alternatives, I suspect he'll slip into either middle relief or another organization before beginning many games for the Twins.

Kevin West, 26, OF-R
63/256 for .246/.318/.418 with 11 HR, 41 RBI, 34 R, 0/2 SB%,
and a 20:69 BB:K for AAA Rochester(IL).
4/18 for .222/.400/.444 with 1 HR, 8 RBI, 2 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 6:2 BB:K for A+ Fort Myers(FSL).

A knee injury suffered in the Venezuelan Winter League last December necessitated surgery that prevented West from playing regularly until June. He unsurprisingly regressed to a 271/.355/.478 performance after returning, missing his chance to earn a big league bench job and inevitably slipping into minor league free agency this fall. Hopefully he'll find a more welcoming situation for someone with his skill set.

Glenn Williams, 29, 3B-S
95/370 for .257/.326/.389 with 7 HR, 36 RBI, 37 R, 3/4 SB%,
and a 36:84 BB:K for AAA Rochester(IL).

While Williams scalded the ball during his brief tenure with the Twins in 2005, his offense declined this summer, providing Minnesota no reason to promote him a second time. He'll need to rediscover his lost power stroke soon or else risk spending the rest of his professional career just below the majors.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Despite the lack of impact prospects for 2007 other than Matt Garza, the Twins remain a great source of fantasy talent, particularly in the bullpen. Most of the Twins' relievers post positive value every year, and a couple of guys inevitably approach double-digit value along with closer Joe Nathan. Next spring Nathan, Juan Rincon, Jesse Crain, and Dennys Reyes appears assured jobs while Pat Neshek, Matt Guerrier, and Willie Eyre lead a scrum of no less than six quality pitchers for the last two-to-three slots. If looking for low-risk roster filler, feel free to grab any Twins' reliever other than possibly Eyre as the overall quality of these pitchers inevitably reduces the bullpen ERA due to pitchers bailing each other out. No relief corps in the league looks safer for fantasy teams to mine for help, especially if you can grab high-upside youngsters like Neshek or Glen Perkins.

Team Overview and Organization Rankings

The Twins won the AL Central this year despite the insane decision to deploy Tony Batista and Juan Castro as regulars while leaving demoting Jason Kubel and Jason Bartlett, plus putting Francisco Liriano in the bullpen. By years' end, homegrown starters occupied every offensive position other than second base, manned by Luis Castillo, and the pitching staff similarly remained loaded with inexpensive young talent, outside of obvious exceptions Johan Santana, Joe Nathan, Carlos Silva, and Juan Rincon. Minnesota seems set to remain competitive until Santana, Joe Mauer, and Justin Morneau hit free agency at the end of the decade, however the club lacks the depth necessary to make the playoffs every year if injuries strike more than one of the club's stars. While graduating all these prospects to the majors in recent years thankfully hasn't left the system overly barren due to a bevy of high draft picks, no rookie position players appear ready to contribute and all the pitchers will compete for the same four or move staff spots in the majors. The tiny margin for error facing these otherwise solid pitching prospects prevents me from recommending anyone here outside of Matt Garza, Alex Casilla, and maybe Kevin Slowey and Glen Perkins. Plan to target the Twins' sophomore and junior big leaguers in 2007, not their rookies.

Current ranking of potentially helpful fantasy depth for teams discussed thus far in 2006, based on both the quality and quantity of players ready to contribute in the majors, as well as consideration of the trade value of low-level minor leaguers from each system:

1. Kansas City Royals(A.Gordon, B.Butler, Ju.Huber, Lubanski)
2. Cleveland Indians(K.Kouzmanoff, T.Crowe, B.Barton)
3. Los Angeles Angels(Willits, B.Wood, J.Mathis)
4. Chicago White Sox(Fields, R.Sweeney, J.Owens)
5. Boston Red Sox(Pedroia, Ellsbury, Kottaras)
6. Minnesota Twins(Garza, G.Perkins, A.Casilla)
7. Detroit Tigers(Maybin, An.Miller)
8. Baltimore Orioles(Fiorentino)