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September
2nd
2006
Your Daily Fantasy Rx
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2006 NL LPR: Week 22

by Tim Polko

Today's Fantasy Rx

Welcome to our weekly LPR rankings, our primary method of identifying highly skilled and/or consistently effective pitchers. While we have not changed this system since last season, feel free to refer to this key for a complete description of the codes. We have included the five most recent 2006 QA scores for each starter, along with the 10 most recent QA scores for each reliever, tabulating all data through August 30th. Pitchers with no QA scores have not pitched this year, so do not roster any of them unless you see someone ready to return to the majors.


1
23AXcz - John Smoltz(34345)
2ABCXYZ - Roger Clemens(43544)
2ABCXY - Chris Carpenter(34454)
3AC - Brad Penny(34104)
ABXY - Brandon Webb(33243)

abcxyz - Bob Wickman(4555434532)
abcxy - Chad Bradford(4443333343)
acx - Pedro Feliciano(3444353553)
ax - Cla Meredith(4444445355)
xz - Alan Embree(3323533252)
a - David Borkowski(4554444323)
x - Adam Wainwright(4333245335)

Wickman's placement fairly shocks me, however his skills appear nearly impeccable since joining the Braves. While he still does not dominate many hitters, his obvious comfort in his role makes him as a safe a bet this month as almost any NL closer.


2
3ABCXYZ - Roy Oswalt(45455)
3BCYZ - Jake Peavy(45450)
BCYZ - Andy Pettitte(45533)
B - Dontrelle Willis(33344)
Zach Duke(25343)

3abcxyz - Billy Wagner(3454443555)
3bcz - Ryan Madson(4434434252)
BCZabxy - Aaron Heilman(4554345542)
abcxyz - Trevor Hoffman(3543445445)
abcxyz - Chad Qualls(3443532325)
y - Arthur Rhodes(5454513352)
Aaron Fultz(3334442422)


3
ABCXYZ - Ben Sheets(05355)
C - Jeff Weaver(41332)
Livan Hernandez(42333)
Bronson Arroyo(02232)

abcxyz - Mike Gonzalez(3554433455)
abcyz - Jason Isringhausen(4432414243)
abcyz - Tom Gordon(4232545522)
bcyz - Eric Gagne(44)
cxz - Salomon Torres(3452234443)
xz - Trever Miller(3332543443)
C - Glendon Rusch(4234323233)


A
BCXY - Pedro Martinez(03420)
CXYZ - Greg Maddux(34523)
BY - Derek Lowe(54450)
B - Brett Myers(32044)
X - Chris Capuano(34424)
X - Josh Johnson(04254)
Jason Jennings(54443)
Tom Gorzelanny(35545)
David Bush(42444)
Cole Hamels(54404)
Alay Soler(44200)

Aaron Sele(2143214)


B
CZ - Carlos Zambrano(03555)
C - Doug Davis(13430)
Y - Paul Maholm(42423)
Jon Lieber(54432)

Y - Rick Helling(4452221334)
b - Matt Belisle(2354553331)


C
Z - Oliver Perez(03304)
Matt Morris(53444)
Dave Williams(30224)
Jason Schmidt(24220)


X
Anthony Reyes(33330)


Y
abcxyz - Ryan Dempster(4343324422)


Z
Tim Hudson(53442)
Jason Marquis(04322)
Mark Mulder(02000)
John Van Benschoten


a
Kyle Lohse(55533)

bcxyz - Brad Lidge(4424444453)
bcxyz - Heath Bell(5544315144)
bcxyz - Francisco Cordero(3453334433)
bcxy - Jose Valverde(3443244555)
bcxy - Brian Fuentes(3434545423)
bcxz - Scott Williamson(4322543241)
cxyz - Bob Howry(5353325215)
bxy - Dan Wheeler(4535054343)
bxy - Will Ohman(3245434542)
bxy - Mike Wuertz(3244553452)
bxy - Roberto Hernandez(4354222444)
cyz - Eddie Guardado(5454255244)
bc - John Grabow(4254505424)
by - Derrick Turnbow(5431543224)
cz - Luis Vizcaino(4545423455)
cz - Armando Benitez(0334535355)
xy - Chad Cordero(4534243534)
xy - Jonathan Broxton(4445324342)
xz - Greg Aquino(2344233442)
xz - Gary Majewski(3454034311)
c - Doug Brocail(5504434552)
x - Josh Kinney(3444544245)
x - Jason Standridge(3444454243)
x - Takashi Saito(2452544434)
x - Jorge Julio(5435433354)
x - Manuel Corpas(5504433443)
x - Taylor Tankersley(3444323155)
x - Brett Tomko(5353355104)
x - Fernando Nieve(2244544323)
z - Elmer Dessens(4332343424)
Tim Hamulack(4414414533)
Matt Smith(2423444345)
Tyler Johnson(3234454204)
Renyel Pinto(4204433242)
Matt Capps(5215350431)
Ramon Ramirez(4323422141)
Damaso Marte(3024352233)

While Josh Kinney does not wow me by any stretch, owners in deep leagues should consider him a safer bet than most middle relievers. We also continue to support Jorge Julio, who may be near losing his closer's job yet still owns surprisingly solid skills. A role change for the veteran at this time just does not make much sense for Julio or the rest of Arizona's relief corps.


b
y - Clay Hensley(44345)

cxyz - Scott Linebrink(3233344443)
cyz - Braden Looper(3322425444)
cyz - Danny Kolb(2432543430)
cyz - Mike DeJean(23)
xy - Brian Shackelford(3013545543)
c - Jose Mesa(4342243333)
x - Randy Flores(0252043454)
x - Scott Eyre(4355420313)
x - Russ Springer(3233242332)
y - Macay McBride(4443343434)
y - David Weathers(3344443442)
y - Rheal Cormier(2442430454)
y - Scott Schoeneweis(4404354332)
y - Brandon Medders(3344310433)
y - Jonah Bayliss(3423)
y - Brad Thompson(3113333233)
Franquelis Osoria(4353255020)
Roberto Novoa(5333222335)
Ryan Wagner(3322225533)


c
Oscar Villarreal(540)

yz - Guillermo Mota(3332454545)
yz - Jeremy Affeldt(3445225243)
z - Ray King(3524354435)
z - Tyler Yates(2054355240)
z - Steve Kline(4324333524)
z - Brian Shouse(3045335251)
Mike Adams(21)


x
Rick White(3345553440)
Joe Beimel(4333233444)
Fabio Castro(4333453432)
Casey Daigle(3543024334)
Joe Borowski(3443332425)
Brandon Lyon(3335433533)
Micah Bowie(3235433433)
Vinnie Chulk(5043313334)
Tony Pena(3333233244)

If the Snakes switch closers, Lyon still owns the best skill set in the bullpen and deserves a few save opportunities far more than Jose Valverde or Tony Pena, the presumed alternatives to Julio.


y
Jay Bergmann(342)

Scott Munter(4254340341)
Jose Capellan(3333543412)


z
Danys Baez(4354444551)
Juan Cruz(4132433342)
Kevin Gryboski(423222)


1 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2006.
2 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2005.
3 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2004.


QA score for starts: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any starter who pitches at least 5 innings and fulfills the following skill qualifications: K>=IP-2, BB<=IP/3, H<=IP, HR<=1, and G-F>=1.00. Any starter who does not reach at least one of the required statistical goals or fails to pitch 5 innings earns a QA score of 0. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

QA score for relief outings: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any reliever who retires at least one batter and fulfills the following skill qualifications: K>=IP, BB=0, H<=IP, HR=0, and G-F>=1.00. Any reliever who does not reach at least one of the required statistical goals or fails to retire a batter earns a QA score of 0. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

Starters must pitch in five games before earning any of the following DOM or DIS ratings; relievers must appear in no less than 10 games before earning DOM/DIS consideration. All pitchers are evaluated as relievers aside from those who reached both 5 starts in a given season and qualified for DOM or DIS ratings.

A - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2006 starts
B - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2005 starts
C - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2004 starts

X - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2006 starts
Y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2005 starts
Z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2004 starts

a - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2006 relief outings
b - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2005 relief outings
c - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2004 relief outings

x - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2006 relief outings
y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2005 relief outings
z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2004 relief outings


Today's Fantasy Rx: San Diego's acquisition of David Wells may play a bigger role in the NL West race than the Dodgers' pick-up of Greg Maddux a month ago. Many NL West hitters will remember Wells from past seasons in the division, but given his skill set and home park, Wells could approach double-digit value on the strength of his remaining five or six starts. If you still enjoy a reservoir of hoarded FAAB, Wells merits any necessary bid for clubs looking for a quality #3 or #4 starter.


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