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August
26th
2006
Your Daily Fantasy Rx
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2006 NL LPR: Week 21
by Tim Polko

Today's Fantasy Rx

Welcome to our weekly LPR rankings, our primary method of identifying highly skilled and/or consistently effective pitchers. While we have not changed this system since last season, feel free to refer to this key for a complete description of the codes. We have included the five most recent 2006 QA scores for each starter, along with the 10 most recent QA scores for each reliever, tabulating all data through August 23rd. Pitchers with no QA scores have not pitched this year, so do not roster any of them unless you see someone ready to return to the majors.


1
23AXcz - John Smoltz(43434)
2ABCXYZ - Roger Clemens(54435)
2ABCXY - Chris Carpenter(03445)
ABXY - Brandon Webb(33324)

abcxy - Chad Bradford(5244433333)
acx - Pedro Feliciano(4034443535)
ax - Cla Meredith(3454444445)
xz - Alan Embree(4233235332)
a - David Borkowski(2455444432)
x - Adam Wainwright(1343332453)

Meredith finally hits 25 innings and secures his spot on top ranking, a placement I doubt he'll lose before season's end. Anyone with his control and a 3.00+ G-F should thrive in middle relief, especially in the wonderfully forgiving environs of PETCO Park.


2
3BCXYZ - Roy Oswalt(44545)
3BCYZ - Jake Peavy(34545)
BCYZ - Andy Pettitte(54553)
B - Dontrelle Willis(03334)
Zach Duke(42534)

His health remains a concern, but Peavy finally appears on track and prepared to finish the year strong. Feel free to substitute "Oswalt" for "Peavy" in the previous sentence for additional fantasy advice.

3abcxyz - Billy Wagner(4345444355)
3bcz - Ryan Madson(2244344342)
BCZabxy - Aaron Heilman(4245543455)
abcxyz - Trevor Hoffman(2335434454)
abcxyz - Chad Qualls(5034435323)
y - Arthur Rhodes(4335454513)
Aaron Fultz(2333344424)


3
ABCXYZ - Ben Sheets(50535)
AC - Brad Penny(43410)
C - Jeff Weaver(04133)
Livan Hernandez(44233)
Bronson Arroyo(30223)

abcxyz - Mike Gonzalez(4355443345)
abcyz - Jason Isringhausen(4544324142)
abcyz - Tom Gordon(4232545522)
bcyz - Eric Gagne(44)
cxz - Salomon Torres(2532345223)
C - Glendon Rusch(4423432323)
z - Trever Miller(4333254344)


A
BCXY - Pedro Martinez(03420)
CXYZ - Greg Maddux(53345)
BY - Derek Lowe(45445)
B - Brett Myers(43204)
C - Jason Schmidt(42422)
X - Josh Johnson(50425)
X - Chris Capuano(33442)
Jason Jennings(45444)
Cole Hamels(45544)
Tom Gorzelanny(35545)
David Bush(03424)
Alay Soler(44200)

While we won't own either pitcher any time soon, you still should consider Jennings and Hamels among the highest-risk/highest-upside pitchers in the game. Maddux, Lowe, and frankly any Dodgers' starter remains a better bet for more conservative owners.

Aaron Sele(21432)


B
CZ - Carlos Zambrano(42035)
C - Doug Davis(21343)
Y - Paul Maholm(44424)
Jon Lieber(05443)

Y - Rick Helling(5244522213)
b - Matt Belisle(4355235455)


C
by - Kerry Wood(4350)
Z - Oliver Perez(00330)
Matt Morris(35344)
Dave Williams(31302)


X
Billy Traber(30434)
Anthony Reyes(33330)


Y
abcxyz - Ryan Dempster(3434343324)


Z
Tim Hudson(45344)
Jason Marquis(02043)
Mark Mulder(20200)
John Van Benschoten


a
Kyle Lohse(05553)

bcxyz - Bob Wickman(5454555434)
bcxyz - Heath Bell(5544315144)
bcxyz - Brad Lidge(2425442444)
bcxyz - Francisco Cordero(3453334433)
bcxy - Brian Fuentes(5343434545)
bcxz - Scott Williamson(4432254324)
cxyz - Bob Howry(4553535332)
bxy - Will Ohman(5443245434)
bxy - Dan Wheeler(4445350543)
bxy - Mike Wuertz(3334324455)
bxy - Roberto Hernandez(3444354222)
bxy - Derrick Turnbow(3254315432)
bxz - Duaner Sanchez(3445444443)
cyz - Eddie Guardado(5454255244)
bc - John Grabow(5355425450)
cz - Luis Vizcaino(5553454542)
cz - Armando Benitez(5033453535)
cz - Tyler Yates(1152054355)
xy - Jonathan Broxton(4455444532)
xy - Chad Cordero(3453424353)
xz - Greg Aquino(2344233442)
xz - Gary Majewski(3454034311)
c - Doug Brocail(4455044345)
x - Josh Kinney(3444544245)
x - Takashi Saito(4445245254)
x - Brett Tomko(4545535335)
x - Jason Standridge(3444454243)
x - Fernando Nieve(2244544323)
x - Jorge Julio(1354354333)
z - Elmer Dessens(2354332343)
Tim Hamulack(0344414414)
Tyler Johnson(2433234454)
Renyel Pinto(5442044332)
Matt Capps(2434521535)
Taylor Tankersley(3434443231)
Damaso Marte(4535130243)
Ramon Ramirez(4243234221)


b
y - Clay Hensley(44434)

cxyz - Scott Linebrink(4532333444)
cxy - Jose Valverde(3234432445)
cyz - Danny Kolb(3432432543)
cyz - Braden Looper(4333224254)
cyz - Mike DeJean(23)
xy - Brian Shackelford(3013545543)
c - Jose Mesa(5343422433)
x - Scott Eyre(4355420313)
x - Russ Springer(5323324233)
y - David Weathers(5523344443)
y - Scott Schoeneweis(4250440435)
y - Macay McBride(3434443343)
y - Rheal Cormier(4224244243)
y - Brandon Medders(0333344310)
y - Jonah Bayliss(342)
y - Brad Thompson(3113333233)
Franquelis Osoria(4353255020)
Roberto Novoa(4245333222)
Randy Flores(3302520434)
Ryan Wagner(2332222)


c
yz - Jeremy Affeldt(4253445225)
yz - Guillermo Mota(4523333245)
z - Ray King(4435243544)
z - Brian Shouse(5043030453)
z - Steve Kline(2334324333)
Oscar Villarreal(1323444143)
Mike Adams(21)


x
z - Juan Cruz(3341324333)
Rick White(3533455534)
Manuel Corpas(4335504433)
Joe Borowski(4543443332)
Fabio Castro(3343334534)
Chad Paronto(3043533453)
Casey Daigle(3543024334)
Vinnie Chulk(5450433133)
Brandon Lyon(1433335433)
Micah Bowie(3235433433)
Saul Rivera(3323433413)
Giovanni Carrara(2353233153)
Joe Beimel(3334333233)
Tony Pena(3133332332)


y
Jay Bergmann(342)

Scott Munter(4254340341)
Jose Capellan(2322333354)


z
Danys Baez(4354444551)
Kevin Gryboski(4232)


1 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2006.
2 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2005.
3 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2004.


QA score for starts: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any starter who pitches at least 5 innings and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP-2, BB<=IP/3, H<=IP, HR<=1, and G-F>=1.00. Any starter who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to pitch 5 innings earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

QA score for relief outings: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any reliever who retires at least one batter and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP, BB=0, H<=IP, HR=0, and G-F>=1.00. Any reliever who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to retire a batter earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

Starters must pitch in five games before earning any of the following DOM or DIS ratings; relievers must appear in no less than 10 games before earning DOM/DIS consideration. All pitchers are evaluated as relievers aside from those who reached both 5 starts in a given season and qualified for DOM or DIS ratings.

A - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2006 starts
B - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2005 starts
C - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2004 starts

X - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2006 starts
Y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2005 starts
Z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2004 starts

a - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2006 relief outings
b - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2005 relief outings
c - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2004 relief outings

x - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2006 relief outings
y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2005 relief outings
z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2004 relief outings


Today's Fantasy Rx: Only teams vitally desperate for power should bother FAABing Russ Branyan following his trade to the Padres. Even one month of his likely BA could cost you a couple of points in a tight category race, making him only a worthwhile pick-up where you can afford to ignore your average in the hope of gaining any quantitative advantage.


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