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August
4th
2006
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2006 AL LPR: Week 18
by Tim Polko

Today's Fantasy Rx

Welcome to our weekly LPR rankings, our primary method of identifying highly skilled and/or consistently effective pitchers. While we have not changed this system since last season, feel free to refer to this key for a complete description of the codes. We have included the five most recent 2006 QA scores for each starter, along with the 10 most recent QA scores for each reliever, tabulating all data through August 3rd. Pitchers with no QA scores have not pitched this year, so do not roster any of them unless you see someone ready to return to the majors.


1
AXax - Francisco Liriano(43444)
ABX - Jeremy Bonderman(42434)
AB - John Lackey(45044)
Justin Verlander(45352)

With slight decreases in skill from both Liriano and Verlander, combined with both pitchers missing their respective starts this week, Bonderman and Lackey stand alone atop the pile of safe AL starters. If continued domination by either Liriano or Verlander remains key to you winning your league, look to deal for pitching help immediately.

23abcxyz - Mariano Rivera(5233245555)
abcxyz - Akinori Otsuka(5434423445)
abcxyz - Juan Rincon(3535334541)
abxyz - Scot Shields(4445542434)
abcx - J.J. Putz(3533433544)
BYx - Hector Carrasco(3533342440)
Cax - Dennys Reyes(3553544535)
a - Jeremy Accardo(3544223125)


2
ABY - Felix Hernandez(52544)
BXY - Roy Halladay(53333)
A - C.C. Sabathia(44024)
B - Josh Beckett(04532)
X - Kevin Millwood(45323)
Y - Bartolo Colon(34340)

3bcyz - Julian Tavarez(3342323354)
abcxyz - B.J. Ryan(3421434304)
abxy - Huston Street(5345455415)
abxy - Justin Duchscherer(4524532444)
aby - Todd Jones(3542355545)


3
ACXZ - Curt Schilling(45433)
BCY - A.J. Burnett(34500)
BCZ - Randy Johnson(45430)
CZ - Freddy Garcia(32433)

abxyz - Mike Timlin(3444333234)
bcyz - Kiko Calero(5254253403)
Kevin Gregg(4344434343)
Travis Harper(2344521542)


A
BCXYZ - Johan Santana(44342)
BY - Rich Harden(44400)
CZ - Jake Westbrook(40343)
B - Erik Bedard(55434)
X - Luke Hudson(43443)
X - Mike Mussina(33555)
Jon Garland(44443)
Jeremy Sowers(02443)
Zach Miner(40053)
Jered Weaver(44223)

Although I still don't trust Luke Hudson, his performance over the last few weeks makes him a viable option in standard AL leagues.


B
CX - Cory Lidle(52335)
XY - Kelvim Escobar(31354)
Jose Contreras(33442)
Barry Zito(32423)
Jae Weong Seo(12102)

Scott Downs(3434055423)

Don't expect Cory Lidle to match the success enjoyed by Shawn Chacon or Aaron Small last year, however he at least appears a good choice in leagues where you need wins and can afford mediocre qualitative stats.


C
Nate Robertson(23334)
Odalis Perez(00000)
Z - Carl Pavano

Za - Joe Kennedy(3043242450)


X
Dan Haren(34434)
Javier Vazquez(34332)


Y
Esteban Loaiza(33024)


Z
Mark Buehrle(30214)
David Wells(000)


a
bcxyz - Joe Nathan(4445445444)
bcxyz - Francisco Rodriguez(5244234243)
bxy - Bobby Jenks(4324345323)
xy - Manny Delcarmen(5434434324)
b - Ambiorix Burgos(5424333552)
x - Wes Littleton(5444344424)
x - Mark Lowe(4454343354)
x - Jon Papelbon(4333453445)
x - Brandon League(3404255443)
x - Joe Nelson(3534443533)
x - Scott Feldman(2444334343)
x - Fausto Carmona(3354355303)
Matt Thornton(4034554332)
Matt Smith(5224234443)
Fernando Cabrera(2534425421)
Rafael Perez(3355143402)
Shawn Camp(2322352454)

Joe Nathan's pitching great, possibly better than at any point in his career. Yes, the relative lack of saves also annoys us, but I see no AL closer clearly preferable to the Twins' veteran.


b
cxyz - Rafael Betancourt(3044433443)
cxy - Kyle Farnsworth(4413454453)
xyz - Ron Villone(3333304332)
cy - Mike MacDougal(53454434)
cz - Octavio Dotel
yz - Rudy Seanez(0424245343)
y - George Sherrill(3354224434)
y - David Riske(4233412435)
y - Scott Schoeneweis(4233004442)
y - Tim Byrdak(33041440)
y - Jay Witasick(23321)
Scott Sauerbeck(3431232450)
Tyler Walker(3334332432)


c
xz - Todd Williams(3453235413)
yz - Guillermo Mota(3452333324)
yz - Dustin Hermanson
x - J.C. Romero(4343343300)
z - Brendan Donnelly(3502543454)
z - LaTroy Hawkins(4333552323)
z - Keith Foulke(4133353313)
Mike Myers(5035232340)
Brian Meadows(4344232222)


x
y - Justin Speier(3334454534)
y - Fernando Rodney(0333342343)
Rafael Soriano(4433245245)
Craig Hansen(3453435335)
Joel Zumaya(3543432443)
C.J. Wilson(3423434453)
Joaquin Benoit(1453452530)
Jimmy Gobble(4343253433)
Sean Green(3351433333)


y
z - Jason Frasor(4325323333)
Chris Ray(2545323234)
Neal Cotts(4513235133)
Ron Flores(3235523023)
Marco Carvajal


z
Rodrigo Lopez(33034)

Javier Lopez(4524050333)


1 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2006.
2 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2005.
3 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2004.


QA score for starts: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any starter who pitches at least 5 innings and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP-2, BB<=IP/3, H<=IP, HR<=1, and G-F>=1.00. Any starter who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to pitch 5 innings earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

QA score for relief outings: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any reliever who retires at least one batter and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP, BB=0, H<=IP, HR=0, and G-F>=1.00. Any reliever who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to retire a batter earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

Starters must pitch in five games before earning any of the following DOM or DIS ratings; relievers must appear in no less than 10 games before earning DOM/DIS consideration. All pitchers are evaluated as relievers aside from those who reached both 5 starts in a given season and qualified for DOM or DIS ratings.

A - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2006 starts
B - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2005 starts
C - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2004 starts

X - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2006 starts
Y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2005 starts
Z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2004 starts

a - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2006 relief outings
b - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2005 relief outings
c - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2004 relief outings

x - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2006 relief outings
y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2005 relief outings
z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2004 relief outings


We'll continue tomorrow with this week's NL LPR article.


Internet Challenge

SP(6)
Johan Santana: Fri:@KC(M.Redman)
Roy Oswalt: Fri:@ARI(M.Batista)
Pedro Martinez: No start.
Chris Carpenter: Fri:MIL(D.Davis)
Randy Johnson: Fri:@BAL(B.Chen)
Jake Peavy: Sun:WAS(T.Armas)
Roy Halladay: Fri:CHW(J.Garland)
Mark Buehrle: No start.
Curt Schilling: Fri:@TB(J.Shields)
Felix Hernandez: No start.
John Lackey: Fri:TEX(V.Padilla)
Dan Haren: Sat:@SEA(J.Pineiro)
Francisco Liriano: No start.

Santana, Carpenter, Peavy, Lackey, and Haren all look great, and while we like most of our other options, we need Schilling for cap reasons. Putz similarly replaces Street for similar reasons, especially with Seattle facing Oakland.

Victor and Encarnacion then stay glued to our bench while Patterson and Swisher replace Burrell and Hafner due to the latter pair's respective weekend road trips to Shea and Comerica.

Rotohelp.com(11th lg; 274th overall)
Week 18b: August-4-August 6

 
C	Joe Mauer		770 
C	Josh Willingham		340 
1B	Mark Teixeira		1470
1B	Ryan Howard		880
2B	Chase Utley		1190
2B	Howie Kendrick		750
3B	David Wright		1210
3B	Garrett Atkins		610
SS	Felipe Lopez		1070
SS	Jose Reyes		1030 
OF	Jason Bay		1380 
OF	Chone Figgins		1350 
OF	Matt Holliday		1040
OF	Chad Tracy		1020 
OF	Corey Patterson		910
OF	Jermaine Dye		840
DH	Albert Pujols		2060 
DH	Nick Swisher		620

SP	Johan Santana		1960
SP	Chris Carpenter		1550 
SP	Jake Peavy		1240 
SP	Curt Schilling		1070 
SP	John Lackey		940 
SP	Dan Haren		860 
RP	Ryan Dempster		1180
RP	Jon Papelbon		890 
RP	J.J. Putz		890
RP	Chris Ray		820

Total Salary for Week 18b:	29940


Today's Fantasy Rx: With Mariano Rivera guaranteed to finish his career a Yankee, only Brian Meadows appears a likely free agent among current AL closers, making Seth McClung a good pick-up for rebuilding clubs. Among AL free agent middle relievers, Octavio Dotel, Keith Foulke, LaTroy Hawkins, and Guillermo Mota all could land in late-inning roles by spring, though only Dotel and Foulke appear particularly well-suited to succeeding if awarded closer's duties.


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Please e-mail your comments to tim@rotohelp.com.
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