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July
22nd
2006
Your Daily Fantasy Rx
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2006 NL LPR: Week 16
by Tim Polko

Today's Fantasy Rx

Welcome to our weekly LPR rankings, our primary method of identifying highly skilled and/or consistently effective pitchers. While we have not changed this system since last season, feel free to refer to this key for a complete description of the codes. We have included the five most recent 2006 QA scores for each starter, along with the 10 most recent QA scores for each reliever, tabulating all data through July 19th. Pitchers with no QA scores have not pitched this year, so do not roster any of them unless you see someone ready to return to the majors.


1
23AXcz - John Smoltz(04455)
2ABCXYZ - Roger Clemens(44335)
2ABCXY - Chris Carpenter(44555)
3AC - Brad Penny(12544)
ABXY - Brandon Webb(34555)

Webb's back and cruising, but Carpenter may be the class of the league right now. Clemens' appearances here should surprise no one.

3abcyz - Tom Gordon(5134242554)
abcxy - Chad Bradford(4332543343)
ax - Matt Capps(4454343255)
ax - Jeremy Accardo(3243443544)
ax - Adam Wainwright(3433344354)
ax - Ramon Ramirez(4532340304)
a - David Borkowski(4524432224)
Darren Oliver(3244344322)


2
3BCXYZ - Roy Oswalt(43443)
3BCYZ - Jake Peavy(34432)
3bcz - Ryan Madson(30423)
BCYZ - Andy Pettitte(02255)
B - Dontrelle Willis(34353)
Zach Duke(34223)

3abcxyz - Billy Wagner(5354555334)
BCZaby - Aaron Heilman(4333225504)
abcxyz - Trevor Hoffman(4444553140)
abcxyz - Chad Qualls(3434534443)
y - Arthur Rhodes(4403242221)
Aaron Fultz(2224442333)


3
BCYZ - Ben Sheets(3550)
AX - Bronson Arroyo(43303)
C - Jeff Weaver(34500)
Livan Hernandez(02303)

abcyz - Jason Isringhausen(2233542354)
bcxyz - Mike Gonzalez(5342533343)
bcyz - Eric Gagne(44)
cxz - Salomon Torres(4535343534)
C - Glendon Rusch(343244234)
z - Trever Miller(3430535252)


A
BCXY - Pedro Martinez(14430)
CXYZ - Greg Maddux(42444)
BCZ - Carlos Zambrano(25244)
B - Brett Myers(00434)
X - Anthony Reyes(43244)
X - Chris Capuano(44040)
X - Josh Johnson(34243)
David Bush(44443)
Aaron Sele(05443)
Aaron Harang(32440)
Jamey Wright(23244)
Alay Soler(44200)
Tony Armas(42004)

Look to buy low on David Bush. Taking a shot at Reyes also makes sense, especially in keeper leagues.


B
CX - Cory Lidle(13352)
C - Doug Davis(02332)
Y - Paul Maholm(04203)
Y - Derek Lowe(22040)
Jon Lieber(10322)

Y - Rick Helling(5224524)
b - Matt Belisle(2243552354)


C
by - Kerry Wood(4350)
Z - Oliver Perez(00330)
Matt Morris(54243)
Jason Schmidt(35423)
Dave Williams(13130)

Odalis Perez(4313314412)


X
Elizardo Ramirez(33434)
Mike Thompson(33333)
Tom Glavine(33323)


Y
abcxyz - Ryan Dempster(4240444445)


Z
Jason Marquis(24332)
Tim Hudson(10403)
Mark Mulder(02020)
John Van Benschoten


a
bcxyz - Heath Bell(3554431514)
bcxyz - Brad Lidge(2534422444)
bcxyz - Scott Linebrink(3534353422)
bcxy - Brian Fuentes(5444343332)
bcxz - Scott Williamson(3234344443)
cxyz - Bob Howry(3235434455)
bxy - Derrick Turnbow(5330235053)
bxy - Roberto Hernandez(4333433333)
bxz - Duaner Sanchez(4344344544)
bc - Jose Mesa(2343324423)
bx - Scott Eyre(4235454343)
by - Dan Wheeler(1332435452)
by - Brad Thompson(4231133332)
cz - Luis Vizcaino(3423154554)
cz - Armando Benitez(3452355144)
cz - Brian Shouse(5434332553)
xz - Greg Aquino(5334332344)
xz - Gary Majewski(4353453223)
xz - Alan Embree(3343452303)
x - Jason Standridge(5444534444)
x - Takashi Saito(5455234244)
x - Jorge Julio(3531443454)
x - Fernando Nieve(3343444224)
x - Damaso Marte(4243454003)
x - Brandon Lyon(2303533334)
y - Chad Cordero(5525444134)
Kenny Ray(2043434445)
Logan Kensing(4344251542)
Tim Hamulack(0344414414)
Bill Bray(3424434433)
Taylor Tankersley(2534233554)
Jonathan Sanchez(2543422345)
Brian Wilson(2052352144)
Tyler Johnson(5030323543)

If only the Reds had used Jason Standridge in the majors all year, perhaps they wouldn't have dealt half their core for a couple of middle relievers, neither of whom appears as good as Standridge right now.


b
y - Clay Hensley(04433)

cxy - Jose Valverde(3343234432)
cyz - Danny Kolb(3424343545)
cyz - Braden Looper(4134544323)
cyz - Chris Reitsma(5533433223)
cyz - Tim Worrell(0321432523)
cyz - Mike DeJean(23)
xy - Will Ohman(3424324553)
xy - Brian Shackelford(4034430135)
c - John Grabow(5223154544)
x - Russ Springer(4053324234)
x - Randy Flores(3040433034)
y - Macay McBride(3344055043)
y - Brandon Medders(3233513443)
y - Rheal Cormier(4324324230)
y - David Weathers(3232234343)
y - Mike Gallo(0335223053)
y - Mike Wuertz(4403)
y - Jonah Bayliss(342)
Roberto Novoa(4355334222)
Franquelis Osoria(4353255020)
Ryan Wagner


c
yz - Eddie Guardado(4154143345)
x - Pedro Feliciano(5230325353)
z - Tyler Yates(1353431344)
z - Steve Kline(4330325535)
z - Ray King(3333242020)
Randy Choate(3450234004)
Oscar Villarreal(0334401323)
Doug Brocail(520)
Mike Adams(21)


x
y - Jonathan Broxton(0543413332)
Joe Borowski(4351553343)
Casey Daigle(3543024334)
Joe Beimel(4233324533)
Saul Rivera(2223323334)


y
Scott Munter(4254340341)
Mike Burns(2432244423)
Jay Bergmann(3412133345)
Jose Capellan(4514323312)


z
Juan Cruz(53032)

Danys Baez(1233233225)
Kevin Gryboski(423)


1 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2006.
2 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2005.
3 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2004.


QA score for starts: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any starter who pitches at least 5 innings and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP-2, BB<=IP/3, H<=IP, HR<=1, and G-F>=1.00. Any starter who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to pitch 5 innings earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

QA score for relief outings: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any reliever who retires at least one batter and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP, BB=0, H<=IP, HR=0, and G-F>=1.00. Any reliever who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to retire a batter earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

Starters must pitch in five games before earning any of the following DOM or DIS ratings; relievers must appear in no less than 10 games before earning DOM/DIS consideration. All pitchers are evaluated as relievers aside from those who reached both 5 starts in a given season and qualified for DOM or DIS ratings.

A - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2006 starts
B - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2005 starts
C - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2004 starts

X - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2006 starts
Y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2005 starts
Z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2004 starts

a - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2006 relief outings
b - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2005 relief outings
c - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2004 relief outings

x - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2006 relief outings
y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2005 relief outings
z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2004 relief outings


Today's Fantasy Rx: Bob Wickman could save twenty games if Atlanta meets expectations, making him a far better FAAB target than Eddie Guardado at the time of his move to the NL. The Dodgers' acquisition of Elmer Dessens provides a superb low-risk option for anyone looking for pitching depth, especially since a sub-3.00 ERA and 1.20 WHIP wouldn't shock me thanks to his strong skill set. Lastly, the Shea Hillenbrand deal looks like a win for both teams, but despite the strong possibility of several far more significant players changing teams over the next ten days, consider a strong bid on Hillenbrand if 6 HR, 25 RBI, and a .280 BA could fix a COR problem for you. I don't envision a superior cornerman heading to the NL, so if you're solid everywhere else, Hillenbrand warrants a good deal of consideration.


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