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July
11th
2006
Your Daily Fantasy Rx
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2006 Mid-Season Fantasy Baseball Roster
by Tim Polko

Today's Fantasy Rx

As rosters are due for this contest at 9pm(CDT) tomorrow evening, today I'll discuss our player selections and corresponding rationale for the final regular season CDM game.


Mid-Season Fantasy Baseball
Selecting starting pitchers proved the easiest task in compiling this team. Francisco Liriano, Johan Santana, Jeremy Bonderman, Chris Carpenter, Curt Schilling, Mike Mussina, and Jose Contreras all appeared automatic picks. Like Contreras, John Lackey normally plays great in the second half, earning a spot. Then, while we examined a look list of options, including Pedro Martinez, Roy Oswalt, Roy Halladay, Chris Capuano, Brandon Webb, and David Bush, we narrowed our remaining options to five pitchers: Brad Penny, Dan Haren, Bronson Arroyo, Felix Hernandez, and Jered Weaver. We opted for Felix due to the inconsistency of Penny and Haren, and after leaning towards Arroyo for over a week, we finally settled on Weaver due to the fact that he doubles next week against Cleveland and Kansas City.

Only a few relievers deserved consideration given the uncomfortable fact that Mid-Season only allows a 55000 cap rather than the 60000 cap for the full-season game. Bobby Jenks, Jonathan Papelbon, and J.J. Putz belong on every team, and then while we almost took Chris Ray once again, we instead settled on the low-percentage upside of the surprisingly dominant Takashi Saito.

Joe Mauer belongs on 100% of teams at catcher. Victor Martinez deserves similar consideration, however the lower cap makes him a difficult play. Instead we'll deploy Brian McCann with Josh Willingham in reserve.

Despite the upside of several first baseman, we couldn't avoid taking our first basemen from the other contests: Travis Hafner, Ryan Howard, Jim Thome, and Lance Berkman.

Second base features the least quality depth of any position. Chase Utley and Ian Kinsler look like good starters, and then while we considered Alfonso Soriano, the uncertainty regarding his second-half team resulted in us staying with Rickie Weeks since we see greater upside for him than Jose Lopez.

David Wright and Garrett Atkins belong on every roster. Kevin Youkilis tempted us, but due to an unequestioned high lineup slot and correspondingly greater number of plate appearances, Ryan Zimmerman earns the bench spot.

Jose Reyes, the best player in this contest to date, leads our shortstop options, with Hanley Ramirez a solid second starter. Felipe Lopez and Carlos Guillen rank behind those two, and since Guillen appears healthy, he edges the more expensive Lopez.

The short list of necessary outfielders includes Grady Sizemore, Matt Holliday, Jermaine Dye, Brad Hawpe, and Curtis Granderson. Among the slightly more risky options, Jason Bay still possesses the most upside at this position and Austin Kearns remains a solid value given his everyday job. Rocco Baldelli and Nick Swisher then settle on our bench for opposite reasons: Baldelli is so good that he'll remain valuable even if he slumps for a while, and Swisher, currently mired in a BA hole, looks due for a breakout.

With a single spot left on our roster and a need for a higher-salary, higher-upside player for when Santana or Carpenter face good opponents, we settled on ARod over Soriano and Albert Pujols courtesy of an impressive current trend and a history of impressive second halves.

Mid-Season Fantasy Baseball

SP(6)
Johan Santana: Sat:CLE(C.Sabathia)
Chris Carpenter: Fri:LAD(D.Lowe)
John Lackey: Fri:TB(J.Seo)
Mike Mussina: Sat:CHW(M.Buehrle)
Curt Schilling: Sat:OAK(J.Blanton?)
Jeremy Bonderman: Thu:KC(B.Duckworth)
Jose Contreras: Fri:@NYY(R.Johnson)
Felix Hernandez: Sun:@TOR(A.Burnett)
Jered Weaver: No start.
Francisco Liriano: Thu:CLE(Cl.Lee)

Santana, Carpenter, Lackey, Bonderman, and Liriano all look like obvious plays, and then for cap reasons, Hernandez appears far more appropriate for this week than a more expensive option against harsher competition.

To fit ARod on offense, he and Zimmerman will DH while Berkman and Howard hit the bench, the latter staying seated until we see if he echoes the standard slump experienced by most Home Run Derby winners. Matt Holliday also cedes his lineup spot to Kearns for similar cap reasons. Also, McCann sits in San Diego, Weeks and Carlos Guillen sit since they barely earned spots on our bench, and Baldelli and Swisher sit for now until we see if they trends reverse after the break.

Rotohelp.com(No standings available)
Week 15: July 13-July 16

 
C	Joe Mauer		1710 
C	Josh Willingham		1000
1B	Travis Hafner		2680
1B	Ryan Howard		1950
2B	Chase Utley		2270
2B	Ian Kinsler		1000
3B	David Wright		2480 
3B	Garrett Atkins		1330
SS	Jose Reyes		2100
SS	Hanley Ramirez		1000 
OF	Jason Bay		2550
OF	Grady Sizemore		2200 
OF	Jermaine Dye		2070
OF	Austin Kearns		1570
OF	Brad Hawpe		1260
OF	Curtis Granderson	1000
DH	Alex Rodriguez		3790
DH	Ryan Zimmerman		1020

SP	Johan Santana		3310 
SP	Chris Carpenter		3140 
SP	John Lackey		2760 
SP	Jeremy Bonderman		2190 
SP	Felix Hernandez		1650
SP	Francisco Liriano		1300
RP	Bobby Jenks		224
RP	J.J. Putz		1600
RP	Jon Papelbon		1590
RP	Takashi Saito		1500

Total Salary for Week 15b: 	54810


Today's Fantasy Rx: All-Star Game tonight at 7pm(CDT) on Fox.


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Please e-mail your comments to tim@rotohelp.com.
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