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July
8th
2006
Your Daily Fantasy Rx
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2006 NL LPR: Week 14
by Tim Polko

Today's Fantasy Rx

Welcome to our weekly LPR rankings, our primary method of identifying highly skilled and/or consistently effective pitchers. While we have not changed this system since last season, feel free to refer to this key for a complete description of the codes. We have included the five most recent 2006 QA scores for each starter, along with the 10 most recent QA scores for each reliever, tabulating all data through July 5th. Pitchers with no QA scores have not pitched this year, so do not roster any of them unless you see someone ready to return to the majors.


1
23AXcz - John Smoltz(43044)
2ABCXY - Chris Carpenter(34344)
3AC - Brad Penny(41254)
3AX - Bronson Arroyo(34433)
ABXY - Brandon Webb(44345)

3abcyz - Tom Gordon(5425134242)
abcxy - Chad Bradford(4434543325)
aby - Dan Wheeler(4244413324)
acx - Pedro Feliciano(5443335230)
ax - Ramon Ramirez(1534453234)
ax - Jeremy Accardo(4133132434)
a - Matt Capps(4445233344)
Darren Oliver(3233244344)

Webb and Gordon rebounded up here last week while long-time 1 stalwarts Chris Capuano, Chan Ho Park, Adam Wainwright, and David Borkowski all faltered. However, the appearance of Capps and Oliver provided the biggest shock of the week as Oliver in particular never approached his current skill level as a starter.


2
3BCXYZ - Roy Oswalt(33434)
3BCYZ - Jake Peavy(33443)
3bcz - Ryan Madson(33304)
BCYZ - Roger Clemens(344)
BCYZ - Andy Pettitte(54022)
B - Dontrelle Willis(34234)
Zach Duke(22334)

3abcxyz - Billy Wagner(4444535455)
BCZabxy - Aaron Heilman(2514343332)
abcxyz - Trevor Hoffman(3543344444)
abcxyz - Chad Qualls(3431434345)
a - Aaron Fultz(2433332224)
y - Arthur Rhodes(4344032422)


3
BCYZ - Ben Sheets(3550)
C - Jeff Weaver(13450)
Livan Hernandez(12023)

abcxyz - Mike Gonzalez(5423445342)
bcyz - Jason Isringhausen(5433442233)
bcyz - Eric Gagne(44)
cxz - Salomon Torres(3325345353)
C - Glendon Rusch(34324423)
z - Trever Miller(3353430535)


A
BCXY - Pedro Martinez(14430)
CX - Jason Schmidt(32354)
B - Brett Myers(20043)
X - Chris Capuano(45440)
X - Josh Johnson(43342)
z - Juan Cruz(04530)
David Bush(05444)
Horacio Ramirez(40344)
Aaron Sele(50054)
Tomo Ohka(04043)
Alay Soler(44200)
Aaron Harang(23432)


B
CX - Cory Lidle(35133)
CZ - Carlos Zambrano(24252)
C - Doug Davis(32502)
Y - Paul Maholm(22042)
Y - Derek Lowe(13322)
Jon Lieber(34210)

Y - Rick Helling(5224)
b - Matt Belisle(5222435523)


C
YZ - Greg Maddux(33442)
by - Kerry Wood(4350)
Z - Oliver Perez(00330)
Matt Morris(53354)
Dave Williams(13130)

Odalis Perez(4313314)


X
Elizardo Ramirez(53343)
Anthony Reyes(34432)
Tom Glavine(03333)

Glavine's increasing mediocrity might make the All-Star Break your last good chance to deal him. The Mets look due for some regression down the stretch, and given his general lack of dominance, Glavine appears particularly vulnerable to reduced support from his teammates on both sides of the ball.


Y
abcyz - Ryan Dempster(4254142404)


Z
Jason Marquis(34224)
Tim Hudson(34310)
Mark Mulder(02020)
John Van Benschoten


a
bcxyz - Brad Lidge(4445452534)
bcxyz - Scott Linebrink(2335453353)
bcxy - Brian Fuentes(3245444343)
bcxz - Scott Williamson(3533323434)
bcyz - Heath Bell(3355443151)
cxyz - Bob Howry(4444343235)
bxy - Derrick Turnbow(4455533023)
bxy - Rheal Cormier(4543243243)
bxy - Roberto Hernandez(4333433343)
bxz - Duaner Sanchez(3440443443)
bc - Jose Mesa(5422332343)
by - Brad Thompson(4231133332)
cz - Armando Benitez(4432345235)
cz - Brian Shouse(4332543433)
cz - Luis Vizcaino(3303423154)
xy - Jonathan Broxton(3424505434)
xy - Chad Cordero(3421552544)
xz - Alan Embree(4443343452)
xz - Gary Majewski(2344443534)
xz - Greg Aquino(3425334332)
x - Takashi Saito(4454454552)
x - Jorge Julio(4535353144)
x - Damaso Marte(5353542434)
x - Brian Sikorski(4344043443)
x - Jonathan Sanchez(5442325434)
x - Joe Beimel(3344342423)
x - Brandon Lyon(4414230353)
Rick White(3435524434)
Taylor Tankersley(4551412534)
Tim Hamulack(0344414414)
Logan Kensing(3224034344)
Tyler Johnson(4515030323)
Bill Bray(0113423424)


b
y - Clay Hensley(31044)

cxy - Jose Valverde(3343234432)
cyz - Danny Kolb(5531342434)
cyz - Braden Looper(3532354134)
cyz - Chris Reitsma(5533433223)
cyz - Tim Worrell(0321432523)
cyz - Mike DeJean(23)
xy - Will Ohman(3253424324)
xy - Brian Shackelford(4034430135)
c - John Grabow(3532522315)
x - Russ Springer(2434440533)
x - Scott Eyre(2453433423)
x - Roberto Novoa(3342243553)
x - Randy Flores(5303040433)
y - Macay McBride(4432233344)
y - Brandon Medders(2541323351)
y - David Weathers(4041532322)
y - Mike Gallo(0335223053)
y - Mike Wuertz(4403)
y - Jonah Bayliss(34)
Franquelis Osoria(4353255020)
Ryan Wagner


c
z - Tyler Yates(4332313534)
z - Ray King(3405333324)
z - Steve Kline(4222343303)
Esteban Yan(5424524221)
Randy Choate(4430345023)
Oscar Villarreal(1334003344)
Doug Brocail


x
Casey Daigle(3543024334)
Adam Wainwright(2314523433)
Saul Rivera(4333222332)


y
Scott Munter(4254340341)
Mike Burns(2432244423)
Jose Capellan(2345143233)
Jay Bergmann(3412133345)


z
Danys Baez(2434412332)


1 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2006.
2 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2005.
3 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2004.


QA score for starts: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any starter who pitches at least 5 innings and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP-2, BB<=IP/3, H<=IP, HR<=1, and G-F>=1.00. Any starter who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to pitch 5 innings earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

QA score for relief outings: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any reliever who retires at least one batter and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP, BB=0, H<=IP, HR=0, and G-F>=1.00. Any reliever who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to retire a batter earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

Starters must pitch in five games before earning any of the following DOM or DIS ratings; relievers must appear in no less than 10 games before earning DOM/DIS consideration. All pitchers are evaluated as relievers aside from those who reached both 5 starts in a given season and qualified for DOM or DIS ratings.

A - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2006 starts
B - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2005 starts
C - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2004 starts

X - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2006 starts
Y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2005 starts
Z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2004 starts

a - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2006 relief outings
b - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2005 relief outings
c - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2004 relief outings

x - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2006 relief outings
y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2005 relief outings
z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2004 relief outings


Today's Fantasy Rx: As Mark Hendrickson earned my recommendation last week, today I unilaterally endorse targeting Jeff Weaver in NL leagues. While both the Angels and Cardinals deploy surprisingly similar defenses, the greater consistency of the Cardinals' fielders provides a welcome upgrade for Weaver. He also won't be challenged by any prospects in St. Louis, and if he cuts his homers as expected, he could approach eight wins with a 3.50 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. Even a failure to hit those marks still should leave him with plenty of value in NL leagues, so be prepared to ante a solid double-digit bid to obtain his services if you need starting pitching.


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Please e-mail your comments to tim@rotohelp.com.
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