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May
12th
2006
Your Daily Fantasy Rx
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2006 AL LPR: Week 6
by Tim Polko

Today's Fantasy Rx

Welcome our weekly LPR rankings, our primary method to identify highly skilled and/or consistently effective pitchers. While we haven't changed this system since last season, feel free to refer here for a complete description of the codes. We've included the five most recent 2006 QA scores for each starter, along with the 10 most recent QA scores for each reliever, tabulating all data through May 10th. Pitchers with no QA scores have not pitched this year, so don't roster any of them unless you see someone ready to return to the majors.


1
ABXY - Kelvim Escobar(03345)
B - Jeremy Bonderman(03552)
BY - Hector Carrasco(043)

Seeing Carrasco here starts to justify the Angels' faith in him, especially after his success as a starter last September. I see plenty of upside here if he remains in the rotation.


2
BXY - Roy Halladay(33334)
BC - Matt Clement(03342)
BY - Felix Hernandez(25225)
B - Josh Beckett(52025)
Y - Bartolo Colon(402)
Kevin Millwood(23340)
C.C. Sabathia(023)

Despite his questionable overall skill, a high strikeout rate and vastly varying QA scores indicate that Felix merely needs more consistency to emerge as a true ace.

3abcxyz - Mariano Rivera(4552445334)
3bcyz - Julian Tavarez(0443421324)
abcxyz - B.J. Ryan(3443425444)
abxy - Justin Duchscherer(4224434434)
abxy - Huston Street(4325255344)
by - Todd Jones(254435425)


3
ACXZ - Curt Schilling(53441)
BCY - A.J. Burnett(20)
BCZ - Randy Johnson(03130)
CZ - Freddy Garcia(32345)
C - Jeff Weaver(34031)

Randy's marks here suggest a bigger problem than just bad luck or nagging injuries. You might want to revise your projection downward as he may struggle to reach the teens barring a rapid turnaround.

abyz - Mike Timlin(2144432434)
bcyz - Kiko Calero(3442132145)
Travis Harper(224324320)
Kevin Gregg(243)


A
BXY - Rich Harden(34440)
BX - Jose Contreras(45243)
CZ - Jake Westbrook(02543)
C - Nate Robertson(04551)
X - Daniel Cabrera(44554)
X - Javier Vazquez(34445)
X - Mike Mussina(54352)
X - Joel Pineiro(53045)
X - Jason Johnson(43304)
Scott Kazmir(52525)

Like King Felix, Kazmir also merely lacks consistency, but due to his comparatively advanced age and overall experience level, he's a much better bet in 2006 than the Mariners' sophomore.
B
CYZ - Johan Santana(23544)
Barry Zito(43234)
Erik Bedard(44120)
John Lackey(43323)

Scott Downs(32535542)


C
Za - Joe Kennedy(3043242450)
Z - Carl Pavano
Dennys Reyes(454)
Bobby Madritsch


X
Jarrod Washburn(44333)
Ted Lilly(53343)
Dan Haren(33334)
Cliff Lee(33432)
Mike Maroth(53233)
Kenny Rogers(33342)
Kris Benson(33330)


Y
Esteban Loaiza(0030)


Z
Mark Buehrle(45323)
David Wells(0)


a
bcxyz - Joe Nathan(4443534345)
bcxyz - Akinori Otsuka(4553454334)
bcxyz - Francisco Rodriguez(2353355545)
bcxyz - Juan Rincon(0435355552)
bcyz - Francisco Cordero(3244544453)
bxyz - Scot Shields(5455444343)
bxyz - Ron Villone(4451355333)
bcx - J.J. Putz(4534354544)
bxy - Bobby Jenks(4243544250)
bx - Ambiorix Burgos(3445355215)
by - George Sherrill(3434014450)
by - Scott Schoeneweis(5433312452)
xy - Fernando Rodney(5444424551)
xz - Elmer Dessens(3424455424)
b - Tyler Walker(2353025445)
c - Mike Myers(3344450230)
x - Jon Papelbon(4454542434)
x - Joaquin Benoit(3545434435)
x - Fernando Cabrera(0434344345)
x - Joel Zumaya(3452453543)
x - Francisco Liriano(4433243544)
x - Shawn Camp(3034354343)
y - Neal Cotts(3253524455)
Andy Sisco(3334255054)
Brandon McCarthy(4433121453)


b
cyz - Bob Wickman(443334253)
cyz - Rafael Betancourt(43322450)
cyz - Matt J. Miller(243331)
cy - Kyle Farnsworth(2333443434)
cz - Octavio Dotel
yz - Rudy Seanez(3240443333)
y - Jay Witasick(233)
y - David Riske(1)
Scott Sauerbeck(3340430544)
Bobby Seay(3255352)


c
yz - Jeremy Affeldt(02430)

xz - LaTroy Hawkins(2333541414)
yz - Eddie Guardado(2342354453)
yz - Guillermo Mota(3222025252)
yz - Dustin Hermanson
z - Danny Graves(4324443442)
z - Keith Foulke(3244451323)
z - Brendan Donnelly(1235244243)
z - Antonio Alfonseca(2344242242)
z - Todd Williams(3434253)
z - John Halama(1312432134)
Esteban Yan(2123334514)
Dan Miceli(0424433231)
Brian Meadows(13333453)
J.C. Romero(3223343232)


x
y - Chris Ray(5523334533)
y - Justin Speier(3433434224)
Rafael Soriano(3443432343)
Vinnie Chulk(3334404433)
Jason Davis(4232353343)
C.J. Wilson(4032334334)

Soriano's lack of dominance should keep him in middle relief the rest of this year, so don't expect him to snatch more than a token save opp. from J.J. Putz.


y
z - Jason Frasor(235424332)
Cliff Politte(1434432334)
Manny Delcarmen(2253)
Ron Flores(1)
Marco Carvajal


z
Rodrigo Lopez(04232)


1 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2006.
2 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2005.
3 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2004.


QA score for starts: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any starter who pitches at least 5 innings and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP-2, BB<=IP/3, H<=IP, HR<=1, and G-F>=1.00. Any starter who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to pitch 5 innings earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

QA score for relief outings: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any reliever who retires at least one batter and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP, BB=0, H<=IP, HR=0, and G-F>=1.00. Any reliever who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to retire a batter earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

Note: Starters must pitch in five games before earning any of the following DOM or DIS ratings; relievers must appear in no less than 10 games before earning DOM/DIS consideration. All pitchers are evaluated as relievers aside from those who reached both 5 starts in a given season and qualified for DOM or DIS ratings.

A - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2006 starts
B - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2005 starts
C - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2004 starts

X - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2006 starts
Y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2005 starts
Z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2004 starts

a - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2006 relief outings
b - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2005 relief outings
c - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2004 relief outings

x - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2006 relief outings
y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2005 relief outings
z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2004 relief outings


We'll continue tomorrow with this week's NL LPR article.


Internet Challenge

We're tired of watching Uribe contribute nothing to us, and Barmes isn't much better. Even though Felipe Lopez will slow down, his overall contribution makes him far more valuable than our current sycophants. Lopez joins our roster for Uribe, and we don't expect him to leave our lineup often.

SP(6)
Johan Santana: Fri:CHW(J.Vazquez)
Roy Oswalt: Sat:COL(A.Cook)
Pedro Martinez: Sun:@MIL(D.Davis)
Chris Carpenter: Sun:ARI(O.Hernandez)
Randy Johnson: Sun:OAK(D.Haren)
Jake Peavy: No start.
Roy Halladay: Sat:@TB(M.Hendrickson)
Mark Buehrle: Sun:@MIN(C.Silva)
Curt Schilling: No start.
Felix Hernandez: No start.
John Lackey: Sat:SEA(J.Washburn).
Dan Haren: Sun:@NYY(R.Johnson)

With cap considerations an irritatingly major issue this week, we opted to sit Santana since Vazquez's pitching better and we can't justify benching Oswalt, Pedro, Carpenter, Halladay, or Buehrle. Even with Papelbon returning to the lineup for Street, we still need to deploy Lackey or sit Pujols, so Lackey goes instead of Santana.

Offensively, Lopez replaces Uribe, and then with Bay and Tex both struggling compared to their cap costs, Holliday and Atkins return to the lineup for the Rockies' series in Houston.

Rotohelp.com(6th lg; 141st overall)
Week 6b: May 2-May 14

C	Victor Martinez		1020
C	Josh Willingham		340 
1B	Albert Pujols		2060
1B	Ryan Howard		880
2B	Chase Utley		1190
2B	Rickie Weeks		620
3B	David Wright		1210 
3B	Edwin Encarnacion	600 
SS	Felipe Lopez		1070
SS	Jose Reyes		1030 
OF	Chone Figgins		1350 
OF	Matt Holliday		1040
OF	Pat Burrell		1040 
OF	Chad Tracy		1040 
OF	Nick Swisher		620
OF	Joey Gathright		450 
DH	Travis Hafner		1180 
DH	Garrett Atkins		610

SP	Roy Oswalt		1830
SP	Pedro Martinez		1700
SP	Chris Carpenter		1550 
SP	Roy Halladay		1230 
SP	Mark Buehrle		1120 
SP	John Lackey		940
RP	Ryan Dempster		1180
RP	Mike Gonzalez		1120 
RP	Jon Papelbon		890
RP	Chris Ray		820

Total Salary for Week 6b:	29710


Today's Fantasy Rx: While Tyler Walker effectively deposed Shawn Camp as closer in Tampa upon his arrival from San Francisco, Camp still owns the best skills in that bullpen and should remain effective in middle relief. Now, I don't automatically recommend retaining him if you see a starter or more dominant middle reliever available, but with the disappearance of Chad Orvella's formerly golden command and the general ineffectiveness of most of the Rays' relief corps, definitely consider keeping Camp as the primary saves' alternatives here, especially if you lack multiple closers.


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Please e-mail your comments to tim@rotohelp.com.
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