Rotohelp.com

by Tim Polko

I'll spend one more column looking at a few individually dominant pitchers before presenting the first in-season LPR rankings of 2006 next week.

Last week I analyzed the five most effective AL starters through no less than three starts: Curt Schilling, Mike Mussina, Jose Contreras, Jason Johnson, and Kenny Rogers. Given another week of starts, XXX more pitchers reached similar qualifications without registering more than one disaster.

QA score for starts: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any starter who pitches at least 5 innings and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP-2, BB<=IP/3, H<=IP, HR<=1, and G-F>=1.00. Any starter who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to pitch 5 innings earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

We've included the most recent QA scores for each pitcher.

3 DOM, 1 DUL, 0 DIS
Javier Vazquez, CHW(3444): 2-1 on a 20:5 K:BB in 27 IP over 4 GS with 20 H, 1 HR, a .84 G-F, and a 3.67 ERA. Lost in the Jim Thome revival meeting at the Cell is the strong contribution of Chicago's other high-profile off-season acquisition. Vazquez finally owns the WHIP we expected to see from him in almost every season since his 2001 breakout. Although his low ground-fly rate suggests a pending homer spike in the near future that could elevate his ERA to an uncomfortable level, he otherwise owns the skill set necessary to thrive for the White Sox over the next few years. Now looks like your best chance to acquire Vazquez before he reemerges as one of the league's most consistently valuable pitchers.

3 DOM, 1 DUL, 1 DIS
Mark Buehrle, CHW(04453): 3-1 on a 12:5 K:BB in 35 IP over 5 GS with 26 H, 4 H, a 2.04 G-F, and a 2.57 ERA. We're finally beginning to appreciate the usefulness of baseball's most underrated pitcher. A miniscule strikeout seemingly limits Buehrle's upside, but with a Schillingesque walk rate, little chance of any overt disaster, and a stat line only marred by a rain-shortened initial outing, I see absolutely nothing to concern us here. Buehrle ranks as perhaps the lowest-risk $15 guarantee in the game. Even though we're unlikely to see any $20+ season from him barring an extraordinary season from his bullpen, pushing $20 to acquire him doesn't seem like the worst idea due to the near certainty of seeing 15 wins and a sub-3.50 ERA from the ace. Only shop him in 5x5 leagues where you need to upgrade to a true K machine.

3 DOM, 1 DUL, 1 DIS
Jarrod Washburn, SEA(52443): 1-3 on an 18:6 K:BB in 33.1 IP over 5 GS with 27 H, 4 H, a 1.39 G-F, and a 3.51 ERA. While many analysts disparaged Washburn's contract as a very poor risk due to his injury history and limited upside, his performance this month suggests he just might fulfill the Mariners' expectations. He certainly isn't an ace, but Seattle desperately needed a long-term replacement for Jaime Moyer. If Washburn can maintain this career-best ground-fly rate, an impressive feat considering he never exceeded a 1.00 G-F until this spring, he'll keep his ERA under 4.00 and therefore cruise to double-digit value. The problem is that we just can't expect many victories due to the Mariners' offensive struggles, though if you either plan to punt wins or just need qualitative help, target Washburn to fix your problems.

Rich Harden, OAK(34440): 3-0 on a 28:15 K:BB in 31 IP over 5 GS with 20 H, 2 HR, a 1.15 G-F, and a 4.07 ERA. Back spasms forced Harden from his start in Texas on Wednesday, adding yet another concern to his litany of injuries. His high walk rate also presents an obvious problem from a pitcher generally considered on the edge of stardom. We again own him in all our national contest teams, so we anticipate further improvement over the balance of the season. However, if he either continues suffering from higher-than-expected qualitative stats or encounters further health issues, we'll consider looking for a replacement. Teams that drafted Harden this spring at least should shop him to see if his latent promise will net you a safer alternative.

When examining dominant AL relievers two weeks ago, seven pitchers emerged as the safest bets in the league: Joe Kennedy, Justin Duchscherer, Jon Papelbon, Mike Myers, Elmer Dessens, Ron Villone, and Bobby Jenks. Although all seven remain among the top dozen AL relievers, five more of the best AL relievers warrant reviews this week thanks to their combination of impressive upside and minimal downside. We've included up to the ten most recent QA scores for each pitcher.

QA score for relief outings: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any reliever who retires at least one batter and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP, BB=0, H<=IP, HR=0, and G-F>=1.00. Any reliever who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to retire a batter earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

9 DOM, 2 DUL, 0 DIS
Akinori Otsuka, TEX(5434344455): 0-0 on an 11:0 K:BB in 10 IP over 11 G with 10 H, 0 HR, a 13-12 G-F, and a 2.70 ERA. Promoted to closer yesterday due to the persistent struggles of Francisco Cordero, Otsuka appears fully capable of excelling in that role after spending the WBC fulfilling similar responsibilities for Japan. While we expect Cordero eventually to supersede Otsuka barring an announcement of injury, you need to check the free agent wire in all of your leagues to see if you can acquire Otsuka. Right now he ranks as the most consistently dominant reliever in the game, so even if he returns to middle relief, he still should finish the year with double-digit roto value.

8 DOM, 1 DUL, 0 DIS
Fernando Rodney, DET(534454444): 1-0 and 4 Saves on an 8:3 K:BB in 9 IP over 9 G with 4 H, 0 HR, a 13-8 G-F, and a 0.00 ERA. Recently deposed from closing by the return of Todd Jones from the DL, Rodney still will remain quite valuable as the Tigers' top set-up man. His overall skill set indicates a strong possibility of him continuing to excel in short relief, so please wait to see if he'll fulfill our expectations. Also quickly snatch him anywhere an overeager owner punted Rodney once Jones began saving games since a final value much below $12 for Rodney would shock me.

8 DOM, 2 DUL, 1 DIS
Scot Shields, LAA(3542545544): 1-1 and 1 Save on a 10:2 K:BB in 14.2 IP over 11 G with 5 H, 1 HR, a 17-15 G-F, and a 0.66 ERA. Baseball's best middle reliever over the past three seasons, Shields remains a tremendous asset in any league format, easily capable of registering six wins, six saves, and several dozen strikeouts. Despite a drop in dominance this spring, his overall effectiveness helps him maintain his overall fantasy value. However, the lower strikeout rate does diminish his usefulness in 5x5 settings, so unless you own KRod or otherwise need to keep pitchers with any upside in saves, shop Shields to see if another owner sees more upside in this skill set than we do.

7 DOM, 5 DUL, 0 DIS
J.J. Putz, SEA(5454345343): 1-0 and 2 Saves on a 19:4 K:BB in 12.1 IP over 12 G with 12 H, 1 HR, a 16-7 G-F, and a 2.92 ERA. Rafael Soriano certainly could vault ahead of Putz in the competition to succeed Increasingly Unsteady Eddie as Seattle's closer, but given Putz's established set-up role, his early save opportunities, and his wholly unexpected dominance to date, I see little reason for the Mariners to turn to someone else. Putz possesses the skills and scouting promise to flourish once firmly anointed, so you therefore need to target him anywhere he appears available. He at least will contribute several bucks of qualitative value to your team, and if you can flip Shields for Putz, that swap will look very good for you by autumn.

7 DOM, 2 DUL, 1 DIS
Ambiorix Burgos, KC(5423443445): 0-0 and 2 Saves on an 11:4 K:BB in 9.1 IP over 10 G with 5 H, 1 HR, a 6-9 G-F, and a 1.93 ERA. With Mike MacDougal on the 60-day DL, Burgos appears unchallenged for Royals' saves for the next several weeks. Of course, while he saved two of the three save opportunities presented him, Kansas City's other relievers blew five other save opps prior to Burgos even entering the game. I wish I could advise waiting to see if he receives a greater number of chances, but the Royals appear unlikely to offer much upside for Burgos. Shop him now before that lusty new closer shine completely dissipates.

We'll continue tomorrow with NL LPR.

Internet Challenge

Johan Santana: No start.
Roy Oswalt: Fri:@CIN(B.Claussen)
Pedro Martinez: Fri:@ATL(J.Smoltz?)
Chris Carpenter: Sat:WAS(L.Hernandez)
Randy Johnson: Sat:TOR(J.Towers)
Jake Peavy: No start.
Roy Halladay: Fri:@NYY(Jar.Wright)
Mark Buehrle: No start.
Curt Schilling: Sun:@TB(S.Kazmir?)
Rich Harden: No start.
Felix Hernandez: Sat:@BAL(B.Chen)
John Lackey: No start.
Dan Haren: Fri:@KC(J.Mays)

With Carpenter, Randy, Schilling, and Haren ranking as easy picks, we then can choose between Oswalt, Pedro, Halladay, and Felix for our last two slots. Looking at our cap, we have no changes on offense with Colorado still on the road, and Street also appears unable to return to our lineup. Given those qualifications, as well as the downside of any pitcher in the GAB and Felix's inconsistency, selecting Pedro and Halladay seems like the safest play.

Rotohelp.com(1st lg; 41st overall)
Week 4b: April 28-April 30

C	Victor Martinez		1020
C	Josh Willingham		340 
1B	Travis Hafner		1180
1B	Ryan Howard		880
2B	Chase Utley		1190
2B	Rickie Weeks		620
3B	David Wright		1210 
3B	Edwin Encarnacion	600
SS	Jose Reyes		1030 
SS	Juan Uribe		760
OF	Jason Bay		1380
OF	Chone Figgins		1350 
OF	Pat Burrell		1040 
OF	Chad Tracy		1040
OF	Cory Sullivan		460 
OF	Joey Gathright		450
DH	Albert Pujols		2060
DH	Mark Teixeira		1470

SP	Pedro Martinez		1700 
SP	Chris Carpenter		1550
SP	Randy Johnson		1360 
SP	Roy Halladay		1230
SP	Curt Schilling		1070 
SP	Dan Haren		860
RP	Ryan Dempster		1180
RP	Mike Gonzalez		1120
RP	Jon Papelbon		890
RP	Chris Ray		820

Total Week 4b Salary:		29840

Today's Fantasy Rx: Yesterday's announcement that MLB would not celebrate Barry Bonds' forthcoming 715th homer struck me as bizarre due to the simple fact that his homer won't set any sort of record. Hank Aaron still will hold the MLB and NL homer marks while Babe Ruth maintains an iron grip on the AL record, so although we suppose that seeing someone new reach the 2nd spot on the homer list merits brief mention, any formal ceremony seems awfully pretentious. Fans and MLB should continue to laud Bonds for his overall accomplishments, but merely passing Ruth doesn't impress me nearly as much as his stunningly impressive overall stats, particularly his record 2335 BB and 7 MVP awards.

Click here to read the previous article.

Please e-mail your comments to tim@rotohelp.com.


Rotohelp Our Philosophy		2006 Hitting: Mayflowers by Tim Polko Today's Fantasy Rx I'll spend one more column looking at a few individually dominant pitchers before presenting the first in-season LPR rankings of 2006 next week. Last week I analyzed the five most effective AL starters through no less than three starts: Curt Schilling, Mike Mussina, Jose Contreras, Jason Johnson, and Kenny Rogers. Given another week of starts, XXX more pitchers reached similar qualifications without registering more than one disaster. QA score for starts: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any starter who pitches at least 5 innings and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP-2, BB<=IP/3, H<=IP, HR<=1, and G-F>=1.00. Any starter who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to pitch 5 innings earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster. We've included the most recent QA scores for each pitcher. 3 DOM, 1 DUL, 0 DIS Javier Vazquez, CHW(3444): 2-1 on a 20:5 K:BB in 27 IP over 4 GS with 20 H, 1 HR, a .84 G-F, and a 3.67 ERA. Lost in the Jim Thome revival meeting at the Cell is the strong contribution of Chicago's other high-profile off-season acquisition. Vazquez finally owns the WHIP we expected to see from him in almost every season since his 2001 breakout. Although his low ground-fly rate suggests a pending homer spike in the near future that could elevate his ERA to an uncomfortable level, he otherwise owns the skill set necessary to thrive for the White Sox over the next few years. Now looks like your best chance to acquire Vazquez before he reemerges as one of the league's most consistently valuable pitchers. 3 DOM, 1 DUL, 1 DIS Mark Buehrle, CHW(04453): 3-1 on a 12:5 K:BB in 35 IP over 5 GS with 26 H, 4 H, a 2.04 G-F, and a 2.57 ERA. We're finally beginning to appreciate the usefulness of baseball's most underrated pitcher. A miniscule strikeout seemingly limits Buehrle's upside, but with a Schillingesque walk rate, little chance of any overt disaster, and a stat line only marred by a rain-shortened initial outing, I see absolutely nothing to concern us here. Buehrle ranks as perhaps the lowest-risk $15 guarantee in the game. Even though we're unlikely to see any $20+ season from him barring an extraordinary season from his bullpen, pushing $20 to acquire him doesn't seem like the worst idea due to the near certainty of seeing 15 wins and a sub-3.50 ERA from the ace. Only shop him in 5x5 leagues where you need to upgrade to a true K machine. 3 DOM, 1 DUL, 1 DIS Jarrod Washburn, SEA(52443): 1-3 on an 18:6 K:BB in 33.1 IP over 5 GS with 27 H, 4 H, a 1.39 G-F, and a 3.51 ERA. While many analysts disparaged Washburn's contract as a very poor risk due to his injury history and limited upside, his performance this month suggests he just might fulfill the Mariners' expectations. He certainly isn't an ace, but Seattle desperately needed a long-term replacement for Jaime Moyer. If Washburn can maintain this career-best ground-fly rate, an impressive feat considering he never exceeded a 1.00 G-F until this spring, he'll keep his ERA under 4.00 and therefore cruise to double-digit value. The problem is that we just can't expect many victories due to the Mariners' offensive struggles, though if you either plan to punt wins or just need qualitative help, target Washburn to fix your problems. Rich Harden, OAK(34440): 3-0 on a 28:15 K:BB in 31 IP over 5 GS with 20 H, 2 HR, a 1.15 G-F, and a 4.07 ERA. Back spasms forced Harden from his start in Texas on Wednesday, adding yet another concern to his litany of injuries. His high walk rate also presents an obvious problem from a pitcher generally considered on the edge of stardom. We again own him in all our national contest teams, so we anticipate further improvement over the balance of the season. However, if he either continues suffering from higher-than-expected qualitative stats or encounters further health issues, we'll consider looking for a replacement. Teams that drafted Harden this spring at least should shop him to see if his latent promise will net you a safer alternative. When examining dominant AL relievers two weeks ago, seven pitchers emerged as the safest bets in the league: Joe Kennedy, Justin Duchscherer, Jon Papelbon, Mike Myers, Elmer Dessens, Ron Villone, and Bobby Jenks. Although all seven remain among the top dozen AL relievers, five more of the best AL relievers warrant reviews this week thanks to their combination of impressive upside and minimal downside. We've included up to the ten most recent QA scores for each pitcher. QA score for relief outings: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any reliever who retires at least one batter and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP, BB=0, H<=IP, HR=0, and G-F>=1.00. Any reliever who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to retire a batter earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster. 9 DOM, 2 DUL, 0 DIS Akinori Otsuka, TEX(5434344455): 0-0 on an 11:0 K:BB in 10 IP over 11 G with 10 H, 0 HR, a 13-12 G-F, and a 2.70 ERA. Promoted to closer yesterday due to the persistent struggles of Francisco Cordero, Otsuka appears fully capable of excelling in that role after spending the WBC fulfilling similar responsibilities for Japan. While we expect Cordero eventually to supersede Otsuka barring an announcement of injury, you need to check the free agent wire in all of your leagues to see if you can acquire Otsuka. Right now he ranks as the most consistently dominant reliever in the game, so even if he returns to middle relief, he still should finish the year with double-digit roto value. 8 DOM, 1 DUL, 0 DIS Fernando Rodney, DET(534454444): 1-0 and 4 Saves on an 8:3 K:BB in 9 IP over 9 G with 4 H, 0 HR, a 13-8 G-F, and a 0.00 ERA. Recently deposed from closing by the return of Todd Jones from the DL, Rodney still will remain quite valuable as the Tigers' top set-up man. His overall skill set indicates a strong possibility of him continuing to excel in short relief, so please wait to see if he'll fulfill our expectations. Also quickly snatch him anywhere an overeager owner punted Rodney once Jones began saving games since a final value much below $12 for Rodney would shock me. 8 DOM, 2 DUL, 1 DIS Scot Shields, LAA(3542545544): 1-1 and 1 Save on a 10:2 K:BB in 14.2 IP over 11 G with 5 H, 1 HR, a 17-15 G-F, and a 0.66 ERA. Baseball's best middle reliever over the past three seasons, Shields remains a tremendous asset in any league format, easily capable of registering six wins, six saves, and several dozen strikeouts. Despite a drop in dominance this spring, his overall effectiveness helps him maintain his overall fantasy value. However, the lower strikeout rate does diminish his usefulness in 5x5 settings, so unless you own KRod or otherwise need to keep pitchers with any upside in saves, shop Shields to see if another owner sees more upside in this skill set than we do. 7 DOM, 5 DUL, 0 DIS J.J. Putz, SEA(5454345343): 1-0 and 2 Saves on a 19:4 K:BB in 12.1 IP over 12 G with 12 H, 1 HR, a 16-7 G-F, and a 2.92 ERA. Rafael Soriano certainly could vault ahead of Putz in the competition to succeed Increasingly Unsteady Eddie as Seattle's closer, but given Putz's established set-up role, his early save opportunities, and his wholly unexpected dominance to date, I see little reason for the Mariners to turn to someone else. Putz possesses the skills and scouting promise to flourish once firmly anointed, so you therefore need to target him anywhere he appears available. He at least will contribute several bucks of qualitative value to your team, and if you can flip Shields for Putz, that swap will look very good for you by autumn. 7 DOM, 2 DUL, 1 DIS Ambiorix Burgos, KC(5423443445): 0-0 and 2 Saves on an 11:4 K:BB in 9.1 IP over 10 G with 5 H, 1 HR, a 6-9 G-F, and a 1.93 ERA. With Mike MacDougal on the 60-day DL, Burgos appears unchallenged for Royals' saves for the next several weeks. Of course, while he saved two of the three save opportunities presented him, Kansas City's other relievers blew five other save opps prior to Burgos even entering the game. I wish I could advise waiting to see if he receives a greater number of chances, but the Royals appear unlikely to offer much upside for Burgos. Shop him now before that lusty new closer shine completely dissipates. We'll continue tomorrow with NL LPR. Internet Challenge Johan Santana: No start. Roy Oswalt: Fri:@CIN(B.Claussen) Pedro Martinez: Fri:@ATL(J.Smoltz?) Chris Carpenter: Sat:WAS(L.Hernandez) Randy Johnson: Sat:TOR(J.Towers) Jake Peavy: No start. Roy Halladay: Fri:@NYY(Jar.Wright) Mark Buehrle: No start. Curt Schilling: Sun:@TB(S.Kazmir?) Rich Harden: No start. Felix Hernandez: Sat:@BAL(B.Chen) John Lackey: No start. Dan Haren: Fri:@KC(J.Mays) With Carpenter, Randy, Schilling, and Haren ranking as easy picks, we then can choose between Oswalt, Pedro, Halladay, and Felix for our last two slots. Looking at our cap, we have no changes on offense with Colorado still on the road, and Street also appears unable to return to our lineup. Given those qualifications, as well as the downside of any pitcher in the GAB and Felix's inconsistency, selecting Pedro and Halladay seems like the safest play. Rotohelp.com(1st lg; 41st overall) Week 4b: April 28-April 30 C Victor Martinez 1020 C Josh Willingham 340 1B Travis Hafner 1180 1B Ryan Howard 880 2B Chase Utley 1190 2B Rickie Weeks 620 3B David Wright 1210 3B Edwin Encarnacion 600 SS Jose Reyes 1030 SS Juan Uribe 760 OF Jason Bay 1380 OF Chone Figgins 1350 OF Pat Burrell 1040 OF Chad Tracy 1040 OF Cory Sullivan 460 OF Joey Gathright 450 DH Albert Pujols 2060 DH Mark Teixeira 1470 SP Pedro Martinez 1700 SP Chris Carpenter 1550 SP Randy Johnson 1360 SP Roy Halladay 1230 SP Curt Schilling 1070 SP Dan Haren 860 RP Ryan Dempster 1180 RP Mike Gonzalez 1120 RP Jon Papelbon 890 RP Chris Ray 820 Total Week 4b Salary: 29840 Today's Fantasy Rx: Yesterday's announcement that MLB would not celebrate Barry Bonds' forthcoming 715th homer struck me as bizarre due to the simple fact that his homer won't set any sort of record. Hank Aaron still will hold the MLB and NL homer marks while Babe Ruth maintains an iron grip on the AL record, so although we suppose that seeing someone new reach the 2nd spot on the homer list merits brief mention, any formal ceremony seems awfully pretentious. Fans and MLB should continue to laud Bonds for his overall accomplishments, but merely passing Ruth doesn't impress me nearly as much as his stunningly impressive overall stats, particularly his record 2335 BB and 7 MVP awards. Click here to read the previous article. Please e-mail your comments to tim@rotohelp.com.
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