Today's Fantasy Rx

After reviewing relievers last week, I'll look at the most dominant starters in 2006 this weekend. Once again, please remember that the fairly limited sample size of statistics generated over the last three weeks renders the following comments far more useful as general suggestions rather than strong recommendations.

QA score for starts: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any starter who pitches at least 5 innings and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP-2, BB<=IP/3, H<=IP, HR<=1, and G-F>=1.00. Any starter who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to pitch 5 innings earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

We've included the most recent QA scores for each pitcher.

3 DOM, 1 DUL, 0 DIS
Curt Schilling, BOS(4355): 3-0 on a 23:4 K:BB in 28 IP over 4 GS with 17 H, 2 HR, a .96 G-F, and a 1.61 ERA. While I never truly doubted Schilling's skills, his health appeared a major roadblock entering this season. Clearly I underestimated his recuperation ability, since right now he ranks with the most valuable pitchers in baseball. Only a slightly troublesome ground-fly rate suggests any forthcoming trouble here as he otherwise owns the skill set necessary to return to his 2004 level of excellence. You probably shouldn't run out to get Schilling given the exuberant price he'll fetch in most leagues, but if you lucked into him this spring, definitely wait before taking any action given the strong likelihood that he'll at least echo these numbers for the next several weeks.

Mike Mussina, NYY(3445): 1-1 on a 26:3 K:BB in 27 IP over 4 GS with 23 H, 2 HR, a .64 G-F, and a 2.67 ERA. Neither Mussina's record nor his ERA currently correlate with his demonstrated skill set this year. Yes, his very weak ground-fly certainly could lead to the homer problems that plagued him in recent years. He similarly could fall short of 200 innings for the third straight year, thus limiting his overall value. However, right now he owns some of the best overall stats in the majors, making him a surprisingly affordable pitcher to acquire if you need another starter. Mussina's role on the Yankees gives him an outside chance at one last Cy Young run, and although we don't anticipate him maintaining this pace all year, we recognize he still possesses the talent necessary to reach 20 wins with a sub-3.00 ERA.

3 DOM, 0 DUL, 0 DIS
Jose Contreras, CHW(445): 2-0 on an 11:4 K:BB in 21 IP over 3 GS with 13 H, 1 HR, a 1.35 G-F, and a 1.29 ERA. Contreras didn't miss a beat after his dominant second half last year. Although his strikeout rate appears uncomfortably low, his overall skills look excellent, and with Chicago's defense still very solid, he could remain very productive indefinitely. Unlike many players, Contreras appears far more secure after signing a new contract extension that provides desired stability, apparently enabling him to flourish in this comfortable environment. Generally wait unless you receive a fantastic owner for this borderline ace.

Jason Johnson, CLE(444): 1-0 on an 8:4 K:BB in 20.2 IP over 3 GS with 16 H, 1 HR, a 3.25 G-F, and a 1.83 ERA. Never owning great skills during his days with the Orioles and Tigers, Johnson increasingly improved his control in recent years. Obviously he still strikes out few batters, but placing his steady stream of grounders in front of Cleveland's solid defense in forgiving Jacobs' Field gives Johnson surprisingly little downside. Although anything less than a gradual rise to an ERA near 4.00 will surprise me, I see no reason you shouldn't invest in Johnson given his impressive control and the inherent upside in his move to the Indians. Feel free to acquire him wherever he still costs less than a #3 starter in trade.

2 DOM, 2 DUL, 0 DIS
Kenny Rogers, DET(5433): 3-1 on a 16:6 K:BB in 27.2 IP over 4 GS with 25 H, 1 HR, a 2.33 G-F, and a 3.38 ERA. Rogers hasn't owned skills this good since moving into the Rangers' rotation well over a decade ago. As the Tigers continue slipping toward the back of the AL pack, his performance similarly will decline, with the most noticeable stagnation in his win total. I highly doubt he'll reach even fifteen victories on the season, so if you snagged Rogers in a late round, you probably already received perhaps a quarter of his total value for the year. Heavily shop the veteran, settling on a decent deal before his combination of age and inconsistency sabotages his impressive early contributions to your team.

We'll continue tomorrow with NL LPR.

Internet Challenge

With Huston Street hurting and Mike Gonzalez appearing increasingly useless, we're adding Jon Papelbon for the injured Ken Griffey. Papelbon joins the lineup this weekend for Street.

SP(6)
Johan Santana: Fri:@CHW(M.Buehrle)
Roy Oswalt: Sun:PIT(P.Maholm)
Pedro Martinez: Sat:@SD(C.Young)
Chris Carpenter: No start.
Randy Johnson: Sun:BAL(B.Chen)
Jake Peavy: No start.
Roy Halladay: Sat:BOS(L.DiNardo).
Mark Buehrle: Fri:MIN(J.Santana).
Barry Zito: No start.
Rich Harden: Fri:LAA(J.Lackey)
Felix Hernandez: Sun:DET(J.Verlander)
John Lackey: Fri:@OAK(R.Harden)
Dan Haren: Sat:LAA(J.Weaver)

Selecting Oswalt, Pedro, and Haren makes plenty of sense, and after briefly considering Halladay and Buehrle, we comfortably opted for Randy, Harden, and Felix.

Our Rockies remain deployed with Colorado still at home, and then with Arizona heading to LA, Gathright subs for Tracy, giving us the cap room to run Pujols for Encarnacion, who then joins Tex and Uribe on our bench.

Rotohelp.com(1st lg; 50th overall)
Week 3b: April 21-April 23

C	Victor Martinez		1020
C	Josh Willingham		340 
1B	Travis Hafner		1180
1B	Ryan Howard		880
2B	Chase Utley		1190
2B	Rickie Weeks		620
3B	David Wright		1210 
3B	Garrett Atkins		610
SS	Jose Reyes		1030 
SS	Clint Barmes		780
OF	Jason Bay		1380
OF	Chone Figgins		1350 
OF	Pat Burrell		1040 
OF	Matt Holliday		1040
OF	Cory Sullivan		460 
OF	Joey Gathright		450
DH	Albert Pujols		2060
DH	Todd Helton		1380

SP	Roy Oswalt		1830 
SP	Pedro Martinez		1700 
SP	Randy Johnson		1360 
SP	Rich Harden		1040
SP	Felix Hernandez		960 
SP	Dan Haren		860
RP	Ryan Dempster		1180
RP	Mike Gonzalez		1120
RP	Jon Papelbon		890
RP	Chris Ray		820

Total Week 3b Salary:		29780

Today's Fantasy Rx: Although he'll probably cost more than you want to pay in many leagues, Mike Mussina just might produce a surprisingly special season. We only stopped running him in national leagues due to the elevated qualitative stats produced by his general inconsistency. However, right now he appears set to embark on an extended run of strong starts, so if you can pry Mussina from his current owner at any decent price, acquiring him now could significantly improve your pitching foundation.