Rotohelp  
April
18th
2006
Your Daily Fantasy Rx
Rotohelp
Our Philosophy

2006 Hitting: April NL Underachievers
by Tim Polko

Today's Fantasy Rx

Arizona: Eric Byrnes, OF
9/35 for .257/.316/.343 with 0 HR, 0 RBI, 3 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 3:7 BB:K.

Shawn Green and Orlando Hudson appear in bad shape, but at least they appear set to continue playing nearly every day. Conversely, Byrnes already cedes some playing time to Jeff DaVanon and almost certainly will lose his job to Chris Young if not Carlos Quentin by year's end. You at least should shop him to anyone hoping he might approach 15-15 season he could post in Arizona if he receives 500 at-bats and everything breaks perfectly. Since I no longer view those numbers as reasonable goals, moving Byrnes while he retains a decent BA and the allure of upside seems prudent.


Atlanta: Jeff Francoeur, OF
11/53 for .208/.218/.377 with 3 HR, 8 RBI, 6 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 0:12 BB:K.

I'm not even slightly shocked that the 2005 NL Rookie of the Year Runner-Up can't hit his weight in his sophomore campaign. Francoeur may possess plenty of power, but with a 2.89 #P/PA and 2.20 G-F thoroughly sabotaging his natural hitting ability, he just might finish with less fantasy value than anyone in Atlanta's starting lineup. Use his recent surge as your excuse to shop Francoeur while his value remains reasonable high. While he could rebound to his 2005 performance, these incredibly shallow skills could result in very low averages for him this year.


Chicago Cubs: Aramis Ramirez, 3B
7/33 for .212/.333/.424 with 2 HR, 5 RBI, 6 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 5:5 BB:K.

With little deviation from his established skills and a surprising number of hitting on base ahead of him, Ramirez only needs an extended homestand in warm weather to begin his march toward a potential 40/120 season. He only turns 28 this summer and still possesses incredible power potential, making him a solid target for teams looking to make a quick switch at third base. Ramirez is worth the effort necessary to get him if he appears available at any discount.


Cincinnati: Scott Hatteberg, 1B
3/22 for .136/.387/.273 with 1 HR, 3 RBI, 4 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 9:3 BB:K.

With Ryan Freel demanding everyday playing time, Hatteberg quickly found his starting job in jeopardy barely a week into the season. However, he still possesses plenty of plate discipline, and if Griffey loses time to the DL, we should see a Hatteberg/Aurilia platoon at first while Freel starts in center. Definitely look to acquire Hatteberg to help your BA at UT or even CR, especially if an anxious owner tossed him on the waiver wire this early in the season.


Colorado: Luis A. Gonzalez, 2B
3/22 for .136/.136/.136 with 0 HR, 1 RBI, 0 R, 0/1 SB%,
and a 0:5 BB:K.

Few decisions worked out better for us this spring than avoiding Luis A. Gonzalez in all leagues despite projecting him to earn about $15. Only he and Colorado's catchers missed the Blake-Street-Bombers-are-Back memo that drives the top six batters in the lineup. However, Gonzalez's skills remain near his established marks and he owns much more upside than theoretical alternatives like Jason Smith and Jamey Carroll. With his early wrist problems hopefully behind him, Gonzalez seems safe to acquire anywhere he'll cost you a $7 MIF rather than that established $15 starter.


Florida: Jeremy Hermida, OF
5/20 for .250/.423/.300 with 0 HR, 0 RBI, 4 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 6:7 BB:K.

With a strained hip flexor sending the Rookie of the Year contender to the DL yesterday, Hermida just might be available at a discount in standard leagues where his impressive OBP doesn't directly factor into the scoring. He appears as patient as ever, and although we won't see much power right away, a rising BA and a useful number of runs scored will make him quite useful in 5x5 leagues. Hermida remains a good guy to target if you want to add more upside to your outfield corps and can wait two weeks for the return on your investment.


Houston: Jason Lane, OF
10/49 for .204/.381/.408 with 3 HR, 7 RBI, 9 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 14:10 BB:K.

Increasingly exceptional plate discipline provides a superb foundation for Lane's continued power development. Although his 1.06 G-F this season concerns me compared to his .58 career norm, his OBP will provide him the playing time necessary for his batting average and slugging percentage to improve. Lane looks like a great outfielder to acquire, especially in any league that counts walks.


Los Angeles Dodgers: Jeff Kent, 2B
12/52 for .231/.355/.327 with 1 HR, 6 RBI, 9 R, 1/1 SB%,
and a 7:7 BB:K.

A Brad Hennessey pitch left Kent concussed after Sunday's game, which could delay his emergence from this slump for another couple of weeks. While Kent owns impressive plate discipline and a respectable power base, his 3.19 #P/PA suggests a worrisome lack of patience. He still will finish the year with about $20 of value, but due to this recent injury, wait until Kent appears fully recovered before discussing him in any trade talks.


Milwaukee: Brady Clark, OF
12/53 for .226/.349/.245 with 0 HR, 1 RBI, 4 R, 0/2 SB%,
and a 9:4 BB:K.

No one with Clark's history of success and a .92 contact rate will suffer from a BA this low for too long. His lack of speed also worries me, but with no underlying skill weakness, Clark appears fully capable of rebounding to expected levels. Take advantage of his early struggles to acquire the journeyman outfielder anywhere you need a BA boost.


New York Mets: Anderson Hernandez, 2B
6/41 for .146/.146/.146 with 0 HR, 0 RBI, 1 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 0:7 BB:K.

Exceptional defense should keep Hernandez at second for the Mets indefinitely, but back spasms announced today could push him to the DL, leaving an opening for Kaz Matsui to reclaim some playing time. Unfortunately, Hernandez failed to capitalize fully on his opportunity as he didn't translate his strong minor league BA and abundant stolen bases into any contribution on offense. Unless you can stash him on reserve, deal or cut Hernandez before his awful BA sinks your team's average even further.


Philadelphia: Abraham O. Nunez, IF
3/17 for .176/.176/.235 with 0 HR, 0 RBI, 0 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 0:2 BB:K.

David Bell's combination of performance and health problems hasn't helped Nunez due to the latter's terrible start following a career-year in 2005. Charlie Manuel generally isn't using his bench to any noteworthy extent, however Nunez may suffer the most since his bat seems to hibernate when he doesn't play regularly. You no longer can count on more than 250 AB here, making Nunez someone to shop when discussing larger trades.


Pittsburgh: Humberto Cota, C
7/35 for .200/.282/.229 with 0 HR, 2 RBI, 1 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 4:5 BB:K.

An unexpected DL trip for Ryan Doumit cedes the primary catching duties to Cota, who just might be prepared to convert his occasional flashes of batting skill into more consistent offensive output. Conversely, we also really like Ronny Paulino and believe he could blossom into the Pirates' starter if given a chance by Jim Tracy. Cota remains a decent option as your second catcher, but only wait a short while here, quickly moving to Paulino if you see a shift in the expected at-bat distribution.


San Diego: Terrmel Sledge, OF
4/25 for .160/.276/.200 with 0 HR, 1 RBI, 3 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 4:4 BB:K.

The pending return of Mike Cameron could cut into Sledge's playing time, especially with this early performance giving Bruce Bochy few reasons to pencil his name into the lineup. At least Sledge owns good plate discipline, but nothing here indicates much immediate quantitative upside. PETCO turns even All-Star performers into average roto contributors, so unless Sledge's numbers improve soon, most owners should plan to deal or cut him.


San Francisco: Barry Bonds, OF
6/28 for .214/.511/.321 with 0 HR, 1 RBI, 5 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 15:3 BB:K.

Even a career-worst 3.44 #P/PA can't camouflage either Barry's superb plate discipline or his latent power potential. He soon will start hitting homers and move into second on the all-time list, and I also anticipate a rising BA as his comfort level improves at the plate. Yes, Bonds seems surprisingly impatient right now, but given the unbelievable level of pressure he faces right now, his current stat line suggests plenty of upside that only the possibility of a federal indictment dampens at all. We strongly encourage you to target Bonds anywhere you want to ride his power coattails into year-long contention.


St. Louis: Juan Encarnacion, OF
11/54 for .204/.246/.222 with 0 HR, 1 RBI, 6 R, 1/2 SB%,
and a 1:8 BB:K.

Rather than developing into a suitable replacement for Reggie Sanders, Encarnacion broke camp in the #2 hole thanks to Junior Spivey's problems. The veteran outfielder's skills appear sharply divergent from his existing trends, yet with the Cardinals looking increasingly willing to slot him sixth in the lineup, Encarnacion should see welcome improvement in the near future. I'm not going to get down on one of our primary 2006 sleepers after scarcely a dozen games, so at least wait until his OPS inevitably drifts up near .700 before considering any other action.


Washington: Marlon Byrd, OF
6/32 for .188/.395/.344 with 1 HR, 3 RBI, 7 R, 2/4 SB%,
and an 8:8 BB:K.

A poor BA helps camouflage Byrd's otherwise very solid start. His OBP easily makes him Washington's best choice to leadoff, and he soon should receive that chance unless Ryan Church can sustain his scorching return to the majors. Byrd's weak BA also could result in his appearance on your waiver wire, so if you aren't fond of your fifth outfielder or utilityman, Byrd remains a low-risk, high-upside option you should try to acquire.


We'll continue tomorrow with American League underachieving pitchers.


Today's Fantasy Rx: Examining walk and contact rates easily ranks as the best method for determining pending BA boosts at this point in the season. Aramis Ramirez, Jason Lane, Jeff Kent, Brady Clark, and Barry Bonds all look like very strong bets for batting average improvement in the very near future due to their combination of batting skills and regular playing time, although Scott Hatteberg, Marlon Byrd, and a few other part-time players similarly soon should see BA surges.


Click here to read the previous article.

Please e-mail your comments to tim@rotohelp.com.
Daily Fantasy Rx
Out of the Frying Pan

Article Archives
Advertise on
Rotohelp
All content ©2001-18 Rotohelp, Inc. All rights reserved. PO Box 72054 Roselle, IL 60172.
Please send your comments, suggestions, and complaints to: admin@rotohelp.com.