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April
15th
2006
Your Daily Fantasy Rx
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2006 NL LPR: Week 2
by Tim Polko

Today's Fantasy Rx

As no pitcher started more than two games prior to Thursday, I only will review relievers this week. Please remember that the extremely limited sample size of statistics generated in 2006 renders the following comments far more useful as general guidelines rather than specific recommendations.


QA score for relief outings: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any reliever who retires at least one batter and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP, BB=0, H<=IP, HR=0, and G-F>=1.00. Relievers who don't reach any of the required statistical goals or fail to retire a batter earn a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

We've included the five most recent QA scores for each pitcher.


6 DOM, 1 DUL, 0 DIS
Salomon Torres, PIT(4444453): 2-1 on a 6:3 K:BB in 8.1 over 7 G with 9 H, 0 HR, a 14-5 G-F, and a 5.40 ERA. Apparently his new contract included a clause that allowed the Pirates to slag his arm as Torres appeared in seven of the club's first ten games. He generally pitched well yet still allowed five earned runs thanks to problems in Milwaukee and Cincinnati that mirrored Pittsburgh's slow start. The good news is that he owned solid skills heading into the season and remains a reasonably safe bet, making Torres an especially good target for owners looking for low-risk Mike Gonzalez insurance.


4 DOM, 1 DUL, 0 DIS
Ryan Dempster, CHC(45344): 0-0 and 2 Saves on a 3:3 K:BB in 5 IP over 5 G with 1 H, 0 HR, a 10-2 G-F, and a 0.00 ERA. Although the Cubs' closer continues to suffer from control problems, he continues to display the high groundball rate that firmly convinced me he could thrive in limited innings. Dempster also isn't allowing enough baserunners in general to hurt your qualitatively, and as the Cubs continue to rebound from last year, we should see his saves total continue increasing. Definitely wait even if slightly concerned with his command since all his other skills provide the necessary foundation for continued success.


4 DOM, 0 DUL, 0 DIS
Greg Aquino, ARI(5545): 1-0 on a 4:0 K:BB in 4.1 IP over 4 G with 3 H, 0 HR, a 6-3 G-F, and a 0.00 ERA. Arizona's former closer certainly appears able to resume his old role if necessary. Four strong outings to begin this year certainly suggest Aquino will emerge as a middle relief asset. Yes, he still concerns me due the general problem with deploying any pitcher regularly at Chase Field, however if you want to target insurance for Jose Valverde, Aquino increasingly looks like the guy to own.

Dan Wheeler, HOU(5445): 0-0 on a 6:1 K:BB in 5 IP over 4 G with 3 H, 0 HR, a 7-3 G-F, and a 0.00 ERA. The Astros' top set-up guy and de factor closer-in-waiting once Brad Lidge's elbow explodes, Wheeler ranks with the most dominant relievers in the game right now. Although pitching at Minute Maid leaves him with uncomfortable downside, Wheeler's overall skill set and impressive statistical history indicate a strong possibility of continued success. Consider him someone to acquire since I at least expect him to post positive value due to above-average qualitative stats and a few vultured wins.

Brad Lidge, HOU(4444): 0-0 and 2 Saves on a 6:2 K:BB in 4 IP over 4 G with 4 H, 1 HR, a 5-2 G-F, and a 2.25 ERA. While I can't help but endorse Lidge given his overall dominance since ascending to the closer's role, long-term injury questions and occasional skill inconsistency makes him a surprisingly shaky gamble. Of course, current owners who paid full price at auction still should wait due to the virtual certainty that he'll perform at a high level as long as he remains healthy. Just recognize that Lidge requires more backstopping than most similar closers and therefore look to add Dan Wheeler as soon as possible.


4 DOM, 0 DUL, 1 DIS
Luis Vizcaino, ARI(55145): 0-1 on a 5:2 K:BB in 5.2 IP over 5 G with 2 H, 0 HR, a 6-3 G-F, and a 1.93 ERA. Tossing that one disaster into this otherwise impressive mix of outings thankfully keeps me from any foolish reversal of my general doubts regarding Vizcaino's fantasy utility. Switching from the White Sox to the Diamondbacks keeps him in a park generally not suited to his skills, and with Arizona's unimpressive offense similarly offering little hope of many relief wins, nothing here suggests any real upside. Deal or cut Vizcaino before his qualitative stats rise beyond acceptable levels.


3 DOM, 3 DUL, 0 DIS
Gary Majewski, WAS(544333): 0-0 on a 3:4 K:BB in 8.1 IP over 6 G with 4 H, 1 HR, a 15-7 G-F, and a 1.08 ERA. A quick glance suggests that Majewski appears recovered from a generally difficult spring between his WBC work and later problems during exhibition games, however his command illustrates the problem. Considering he didn't own particularly impressive skills last year, dominated very few hitters, and seems subject to the same malaise affecting the rest of the Nationals, very few pitchers with his reputation possess this much immediate risk. Heavily shop Majewski, particularly if you can convince Chad Cordero's owner that he needs Washington's most established middle reliever as save insurance.


3 DOM, 2 DUL, 0 DIS
Billy Wagner, NYM(53344): 1-0 and 2 Saves on a 2:4 K:BB in 5 IP over 5 G with 3 H, 1 HR, an 11-4 G-F, and a 1.80 ERA. Wagner generally settles into the ranks of pitchers we never wind up owning in a given year regardless of the number of teams we field. His stats in recent years rarely match his reputation, and after his outwardly strong start on the red hot Mets, I expect you could deal Wagner for almost any closer in baseball. Of course, he easily could thrive in New York indefinitely since the Mets should produce plenty of save opportunities, but if you can shift to Mike Gonzalez or even Trevor Hoffman while improving somewhere else, make the switch.


Today's Fantasy Rx: While the strongest NL bullpens over the first two weeks probably belong to Houston and Arizona, the safest places to troll for roster filler remain New York and the three California clubs. Unless you can obtain a consistently dominant reliever like Dan Wheeler, generally opt for the low-risk middle relievers on those four teams, along with possibly the more skilled arms on Florida and Washington.


With offenses exploding around baseball, quickly mitigating the damage from any early pitching disasters just might prevent a season-long qualitative dive. Adding low-profile yet low-risk relievers like Kennedy and Dessens remains a great way to solidify your overall staff stats without sacrificing an abundance of quantitative stats due to the relatively good odds that these and similar middle relievers will vulture a few wins and even possibly save a couple games.


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Please e-mail your comments to tim@rotohelp.com.
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