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April
5th
2006
Your Daily Fantasy Rx
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2006 League Preview: NL BP-Indy
by Tim Polko

Today's Fantasy Rx

In 2003 Baseball Prospectus gathered some of their readers to form a couple of Scoresheet keeper leagues. As we previously had not played Scoresheet baseball, we decided to join the NL keeper league that drafted near Indianapolis. BP-Indy offered us a welcome alternative to our normal roster of roto and points leagues, and we eagerly embraced the challenge of competing against Scoresheet veterans. Thanks to an initial draft that featured Albert Pujols, Jake Peavy, and Carlos Zambrano, we made the finals in 2003 before winning the league in both 2004 and 2005. Prior to last season we even ceded our previous team name, Always Polko-Cola, to another of our Scoresheet entries while taking the designated moniker "Even More Evil Empire" courtesy of repeated references from fellow owners.

Attempting a three-peat in any fantasy league generally ends in disaster, and with eleven other owners gunning for our title, trades appear increasingly harder to complete.

We entered the off-season with firm starters at almost every position, including Michael Barrett, Pujols, Adrian Beltre, Edgar Renteria, Bobby Abreu, Milton Bradley, and Brad Wilkerson. Jose Vidro and Ryan Freel vied for our 2B slot, and then other offensive options included Juan Encarnacion, Corey Patterson, Jose Molina, Ryan Doumit, and Yadier Molina.

Dealing Zach Duke last year brought back Brad Penny to join our established rotation of Peavy, Zambrano, Livan Hernandez, John Thomson, and Tomo Ohka. We considered all six viable potential keepers, as well as possibly Brett Tomko, and Aaron Heilman.

Of course, we realized that core players like Barrett, Abreu, and Renteria already appear post-peak, so we began aggressively rebuilding during last year's supplemental drafts, generally eschewing current value in favor of prospects. Despite entering 2005 with only Carlos Quentin and Justin Germano on our rookie list, we ended the year owning Yusmeiro Petit, Russ Martin, Kory Casto, Ronny Paulino, Hunter Pence, and as the other prize in the Duke deal, Justin Upton.

While the league voted to allow trading of crossover slots for 2007, this winter's moves forced us to trade one of our veterans. With Wilkerson owning far more trade value than Bradley despite a worse defensive rating, we shopped him heavily, unfortunately missing a chance at Noah Lowry before eventually settling on George Kottaras and a couple of picks.

The good news is that we followed that disaster by swapping Doumit and Martin for Troy Tulowitzki, and then right before keepers were due we moved Livan Hernandez in a deal for the third pick of the draft with the goal of rostering Orlando Hudson to cover second base.

One last-last-minute trade of Jose Vidro for a pick left us with a primary keeper roster of Barrett, Pujols, Beltre, Renteria, Abreu, Peavy, Zambrano, and Penny. A lack of available OF options prompted us to retain Encarnacion until Quentin reaches the majors, and then we couldn't bear to cut our two previous fourteenth round picks, Thomson and Ohka. Eight of the aforementioned rookies also made the cut.

The one mistake we made involved keeping Yadier Molina. We believe he's prepared for a breakout, but the first round of the draft caused us plenty of consternation. Alfonso Soriano understandably went first, somewhat surprisingly followed by Dave Bush. We eagerly scooped up Hudson and then watched both Freel and Heilman leave the board before our next pick at the end of the fourteenth round. Both Chris Youngs also were picked at that point, leaving Jae Seo as the best starter on the board.

Subsequent rounds left us with a very worrisome roster. Selecting Seo cost us a chance at both Aaron Rowand and Mike Cameron, leaving Cory Sullivan for outfield insurance in the 15th. After trading our 16th in the Livan deal, we watched our two-year veteran Tomko go one choice before our first pick in the 17th. We quickly rostered our one targeted prospect, Arizona's Carlos Gonzales, and then went hard after pitching. Chan Ho Park, Steve Trachsel, Kenny Lofton, and Ramon Ortiz quickly joined our team, the outfielder added for his outstanding Scoresheet defensive number. Perhaps the 20th round was very early for Neifi Perez, but after failing in an attempt to swap Renteria for Jack Wilson, we wanted a top defensive replacement for our starter.

With nine starters secure, we then set out to deepen our bench. Mark Sweeney, Deivi Cruz, and Geoff Blum gave us the infield depth we wanted, and then we spent our last three picks on one southpaw, Shawn Estes, one reliever, Tim Worrell, and then Hee Choi, available by virtue of an early eligibility cutoff date.

2006 BP-Indy Post-Draft Roster for Even More Evil Empire
1.	Bobby Abreu, OF
2.	Albert Pujols, 1B
3.	Milton Bradley, CF
4.	Michael Barrett, C
5.	Orlando Hudson, 2B
6.	Adrian Beltre, 3B
7.	Cory Sullivan, OF/Juan Encarnacion, OF
8. Edgar Renteria, SS
C: Barrett, Yadier Molina IF: Pujols, Hudson, Beltre, Renteria, Mark Sweeney, Neifi Perez, Deivi Cruz, Geoff Blum, Hee Choi OF: Abreu, Bradley, Sullivan, Encarnacion, Kenny Lofton Prospects for 2006: Carlos Quentin, Ronny Paulino Prospects for the future: Justin Upton, Troy Tulowitzki, Carlos Gonzales, George Kottaras, Hunter Pence, Kory Casto SP: Jake Peavy, Carlos Zambrano, Brad Penny, Jae Seo, Tomo Ohka, Ramon Ortiz, John Thomson, Steve Trachsel, Chan Ho Park, Shawn Estes RP: Tim Worrell Prospects: Yusmeiro Petit

Unfortunately, the combination of nine rookies, two DL'd position players, and one shockingly released ex-Cardinal infielder leaves us with a very few shallow roster at the moment. We also lost Thomson and Park to the bullpen, requiring us to set very high hook numbers to avoid the chance of seeing AAA Pitcher appear in our box score.

At least we still own a starting defense with a +0.42 modifier, essentially saving us an extra run every two games just due to their high range numbers. If our starters stay healthy, we should be able to remain competitive until the first supplemental draft in May, where we expect to add at least a few relievers by virtue of owning six picks in four rounds. Although, missing the playoffs this season also won't shock us after spending most of the last year locking up long-term position solutions like Petit, Tulowitzki, and Upton.


Today's Fantasy Rx: While we certainly support anyone who focuses on the latter goal when Playing Fantasy Baseball for Fun and Profit, we generally recommend participating in no less than one league each year just for the fun of it. We've moved more from straight roto to a significant focus on sim leagues over the past couple of years largely because baseball began to become more work and less fun. Granted, the departure of the increasingly watchable Chip Caray and Steve Stone courtesy of Dusty Baker's failings caused much of our angst, but we've found that playing Scoresheet and a couple of other computers sims helped balance our dozen or so roto leagues.

If you're looking for a similar experience, Scoresheet still needs owners for some teams in continuing leagues. Joining now gives you a complete team for a very reasonable $39, giving you a full year to rebuild your squad into a viable contender before needing to expend much more money than most basic online roto leagues. Yes, these leagues usually use the computer-based list drafts we personally despite, but for interested parties with time constraints, this format could provide you with an interesting alternative to your normal leagues.


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Please e-mail your comments to tim@rotohelp.com.
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