Today's Fantasy Rx

National League Relief Pitchers without Positive Draft Value

Quick Key to the tables:
W = Wins.  S = Saves.  ERA = Earned Run Average (ER*9/IP).
WHIP = (Walks + Hits)/IP aka Ratio.  K = Strikeouts.  BB = Bases on Balls aka Walks.
H = Hits.  IP = Innings Pitched.  P = Pitches.  B = Bats.
Age = Player's Age as of October 2, 2005.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters in 2005.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters in 2005.
RAR = Runs Above Replacement in 2005; Adjusted RAR = RAR modified to
consider whether a pitcher qualified as a starter in Scoresheet fantasy baseball .

We ranked players in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, we listed each player in the league where he started the season.

212.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Rich Hill		0	0	9.13	1.77	21	17	25	23.2
CH Cubs		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 25	P:L    B:L	-3		-5		-12.3		-11.6

Please refer to our Post-2005 Prospect Review: Chicago(N) for my comments on Hill.

213.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Greg Aquino		0	1	7.76	1.88	34	17	42	31.1
ARI Diamondbacks		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 27	P:R    B:R	-3		-5		-11		-11

Aquino hit the DL with nerve irritation the first week of last season, missing just over two months of action. He worked himself into the closer mix by the trade deadline yet served a brief demotion less than a month later. The good news is that his dominance improved without completely trashing his control, however allowing a 2.0 HR/9 despite a 1.47 G-F worries me. I see small margin for error here, and with Arizona prepared to rotate relievers at will, he needs a great start to avoid another demotion. Don't even bother with him as roster filler unless Jose Valverde badly struggles.

214.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Matt Anderson		0	0	12.60	3.00	4	11	19	10
COL Rockies		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 29	P:R    B:R	-3		-6		-9.5		-9.5

While Anderson returned to the majors after three essentially lost seasons, awful command destroyed his fantasy value even before considering the effects of pitching for the Rockies. His 4.21 ERA on a 46:21 K:BB in 47 IP for AAA Colorado Springs(PCL) suggests some upside, but with the Giants giving him just a brief look this spring, he appears highly unlikely to see more than a token appearance in San Francisco. You absolutely must wait until he reemerges as a regular bullpen contributor rather than trade on any nostalgia for the first pick in the 1997 draft.

215.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Joe Horgan		0	0	21.00	3.83	5	4	19	6
WAS Nationals		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 28	P:L    B:L	-3		-6		-11.9		-11.9

Horgan's 4.26 ERA for AAA New Orleans(PCL) hid a very mediocre 48:30 K:BB in 63.1 IP, and those numbers hewing very near his average stats for the decade, he appears incapable of transitioning from effective AAA pitcher even to gaining AAAA status. I don't foresee him contributing to successful fantasy teams any time soon.

216.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Terry Adams		0	0	12.83	2.63	4	10	25	13.1
PHI Phillies		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 32	P:R    B:R	-3		-6		-13		-13

After failing to pitch fewer than 70 MLB innings in any campaign for nearly a decade, Adams slipped to the minors in late May and even retired in late July. Yet he still signed a minor league deal with the Pirates and remains in competition for a bullpen job at this late stage. I don't expect him to win a spot out of camp, nor does he seem set to experience much success if promoted, but his outstanding command this spring suggests last year's retirement occurred as many as five years ahead of his expected schedule. Don't be shocked if he slams back to minimal positive value on the strength of a strong second half.

217.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Darrell May		1	0	6.78	1.66	35	23	87	66.1
SD/NYY		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 33	P:L    B:L	-3		-6		-15.3		-13.5

The Twins released May earlier today, effectively leaving last their bullpen spot between Dennys Reyes and Willie Eyre. We didn't expect that move after he compiled a 4.17 ERA on a 39:5 K:BB in 59.1 IP over 7 GS(10G) for AAA Columbus(IL) last year, however May certainly possesses very little upside right now. While he only needs a situational job to impress, teams appear enamored of his ability to pitch multiple terrible innings rather than merely dispatch a couple of hitters every other day. That misperception will limit his chance to reemerge this year in any significant role

218.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Zach Day		1	0	6.85	1.96	23	32	61	47.1
WAS/COL		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 27	P:R    B:R	-3		-6		-11.2		-10

Two years of poor command and an unimpressive camp shunted Day into long relief duty by May, and he quickly slipped to the minors before the National discovered his broken wrist. He barely returned to full health when Washington dispatched him to Colorado for Preston Wilson, leading to a couple of horribly unimpressive late-season appearances. At least he owns a solid ground-fly, but with even that decent stat in a four-year freefall from 3.14 G-F down to a 1.51 mark last year, Day appears ripe for an awful 2006, especially if kept in the Rockies' rotation as expected. Avoid him completely in all fantasy leagues until at least the next time he switches franchises.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Investing in any of these guys other than Hill just makes no sense right now, and unless Hill unexpectedly finds a significant role, even he won't earn much fantasy value this year. Starters that wind up on the bottom of the yearly value list either quickly rebound or completely flame out, but when relievers hit this level, they just don't possess great skills. I see no reason to target this septet in any league.