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March
24th
2006
Your Daily Fantasy Rx
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NL Relievers: Day Twelve
by Tim Polko

Today's Fantasy Rx

National League Relief Pitchers without Positive Draft Value

Quick Key to the tables:
W = Wins.  S = Saves.  ERA = Earned Run Average (ER*9/IP).
WHIP = (Walks + Hits)/IP aka Ratio.  K = Strikeouts.  BB = Bases on Balls aka Walks.
H = Hits.  IP = Innings Pitched.  P = Pitches.  B = Bats.
Age = Player's Age as of October 2, 2005.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters in 2005.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters in 2005.
RAR = Runs Above Replacement in 2005; Adjusted RAR = RAR modified to
consider whether a pitcher qualified as a starter in Scoresheet fantasy baseball .

We ranked players in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, we listed each player in the league where he started the season.


179.WSERAWHIPKBBHIP
Mike Gosling004.451.8214194032.1
ARI Diamondbacks4x45x5RARAdj. RAR
Age: 25P:L    B:L-2-41.92.7

Demonstrating poor skills as both a starter and a reliever cost Gosling his 40-man roster spot with the Diamondbacks at the beginning of camp. Given that he remained equally ineffective at AAA Tucson(PCL), posting a 5.95 ERA on a 78:30 K:BB in 95.1 IP over 17 GS(18G) with 130 H and 13 HR allowed, his exile doesn't surprise me. Cincinnati claimed him on waivers, and while he appeared in the running for a rotation spot for much of the spring, recent struggles leave him unlikely to open the year in the majors. Upon his eventual promotion, wait until Gosling begins succeeding for the Reds before risking him on your team.


180.WSERAWHIPKBBHIP
Chris Resop208.471.821592217
FLO Marlins4x45x5RARAdj. RAR
Age: 22P:R    B:R-2-4-7.4-7

Please refer to our Post-2005 Prospect Review: Florida for my comments on Resop.


181.WSERAWHIPKBBHIP
Dana Eveland115.971.8323184031.2
MIL Brewers4x45x5RARAdj. RAR
Age: 21P:L    B:L-2-4-4.1-3.2

The 22-year-old southpaw progressed straight from AA Huntsville(SL), where he owned a 2.81 ERA on a 98:39 K:BB in 109 IP over 18 GS with 96 H and 4 HR allowed, straight to the Brewers' bullpen in mid-July, where he basically stunk throughout the second half. Concerns regarding his conditioning prompted Milwaukee to place him in the bullpen, a reasonable gamble given his skills and the fact that he averaged barely six innings a start at Huntsville. A rough spring led to his demotion last week, which hopefully will allow Eveland to reemerge as a starting option in a couple of months. While his minor league numbers to date hint at plenty of long-term upside, his struggles in 2005 and uncertain role this summer make Eveland a poor fantasy gamble at this time.


182.WSERAWHIPKBBHIP
Tom Gorzelanny0012.002.1733106
PIT Pirates4x45x5RARAdj. RAR
Age: 23P:L    B:L-2-3-5.2-5.1

Please refer to our Post-2005 Prospect Review: Pittsburgh for my comments on Gorzelanny.


183.WSERAWHIPKBBHIP
Jim Brower315.371.7453327360.1
SF/ATL4x45x5RARAdj. RAR
Age: 32P:R    B:R-3-4-3.4-3.4

On the edge of winning a job with the Orioles following his worst campaign since 2000, Brower lacks the upside to challenge Chris Ray for save opportunities even if the youngster struggles. Brower instead remains a middle reliever with very little upside, so although he might eke out a buck or two, I see no logical reason to own him in any standard league.


184.WSERAWHIPKBBHIP
Pedro Liriano0010.572.0966107.2
PHI Phillies4x45x5RARAdj. RAR
Age: 24P:R    B:R-3-4-5.3-5.1

Please refer to our Post-2005 Prospect Review: Philadelphia for my comments on Liriano.


185.WSERAWHIPKBBHIP
Allan Simpson0012.271.916867.1
COL/CIN4x45x5RARAdj. RAR
Age: 28P:R    B:R-3-4-6.7-6.7

Traded to the Reds for Jose Acevedo in early April, Simpson spent most of the year at AAA Louisville(IL), where he compiled a 4.06 ERA on an 89:39 K:BB in 64.1 IP with 51 H and 5 HR. He didn't impress Cincinnati after his September call-up, and the Reds released him a week ago to clear a spot on the 40-man roster. Milwaukee signed him earlier this week, so while Simpson at least will start the year in the minors, the Brewers' past success with similar reclamation projects offers hope that he'll earn a promotion at some point this summer. Unfortunately for fantasy owners, Simpson's persistently elevated walk rate leaves him little chance of emerging as a viable roto option.


186.WSERAWHIPKBBHIP
Brian Falkenborg008.182.001051711
SD Padres4x45x5RARAdj. RAR
Age: 27P:R    B:R-3-4-4.4-4.1

Terribly undervalued by the Mariners for most of his early career, Falkenborg bounced to the Dodgers and Padres before landing with the Cardinals for the last month of the season. He compiled a 1.69 ERA on a 14:5 K:BB in 16 IP over 13 G with 10 H and 1 HR at AAA Memphis(IL). That performance earned him an NRI with St. Louis, and his solid work to date just might land him on the Cards' Opening Day roster. At worse he'll return to Memphis as the designated eighth or ninth reliever, virtually certain to see St. Louis sometime in the first half. Given Falkenborg's solid command and previous minor league success, he looks like a good bet to succeed with the Cardinals, potentially meriting consideration as fantasy roster filler if he can hold decent skills in the majors.


187.WSERAWHIPKBBHIP
Carmen Cali0010.502.6756106
STL Cardinals4x45x5RARAdj. RAR
Age: 26P:L    B:L-3-4-4.1-4.1

Please refer to our Post-2005 Prospect Review: St. Louis for my comments on Cali.


188.WSERAWHIPKBBHIP
Al Levine009.581.94441610.1
SF Giants4x45x5RARAdj. RAR
Age: 37P:R    B:L-3-4-5.9-5.7

Years of poor command finally sabotaged Levine's formerly respectable performances. He didn't return to AAA Fresno after his abortive stint with the Giants, and considering he hasn't landed an NRI this spring, his career appears in jeopardy. Don't to see the ten-year veteran journeyman post positive fantasy value again.


189.WSERAWHIPKBBHIP
Jon Leicester009.002.2279119
CH Cubs4x45x5RARAdj. RAR
Age: 26P:R    B:R-3-4-4.5-4.3

With a 5.51 ERA on a 73:42 K:BB in 98 IP over 16 GS(24G) for AAA Iowa(PCL) clearly disappointing the Cubs after over forty solid relief innings in Chicago a year earlier, Leicester found himself dispatched to Texas in November to clear room on the 40-man roster. That move kills his short-term fantasy value, leaving you no reason to consider him in any league.


190.WSERAWHIPKBBHIP
Jim Crowell0021.603.0020103.1
FLO Marlins4x45x5RARAdj. RAR
Age: 31P:L    B:L-3-4-6.9-6.8

Please refer to our Post-2005 Prospect Review: Florida for my comments on Crowell.


191.WSERAWHIPKBBHIP
Chad Bentz0031.504.000082
FLO Marlins4x45x5RARAdj. RAR
Age: 25P:L    B:R-3-4-6.6-6.6

The former Expo landed with the Marlins, spending most of 2005 at AAA Albuquerque(PCL), where he posted an uninspiring 4.01 ERA on a 32:14 K:BB in 33.2 IP over 31 G. He spent this spring as part of the White Sox's cattle call of left-handers, and given the rise of Boone Logan in Chicago's estimation, Bentz appears destined for the minors once again. Although I suspect we'll see him enjoy a reasonably lengthy big league career, he may not earn regular playing time in the majors for a few more years.


192.WSERAWHIPKBBHIP
Matt Herges107.141.629123529
SF/ARI4x45x5RARAdj. RAR
Age: 35P:R    B:L-3-4-7.9-7.9

The Giants' surprise closer in 2004, Herges pitched himself off the club completely following the emergence of Tyler Walker last summer. He moved to Arizona in a trade for Doug DeVore, though he only lasted three weeks with the Diamondbacks before the inevitable demotion, whereupon he spent the second half at AAA Tucson, at least registering a respectable 3.14 ERA on a 29:8 K:BB in 28.2 IP. Fortunately for Herges, he landed an NRI with the Marlins and now appears set to break camp as Joe Borowski's set-up man. He just might see some save opportunities at some point, though given his plummeting strikeout rate and general skill erosion over the last two years, Herges barely qualifies as roster filler in any reasonable deep league.


193.WSERAWHIPKBBHIP
Bobby Seay008.492.231181811.2
COL Rockies4x45x5RARAdj. RAR
Age: 27P:L    B:L-3-4-5.1-4.8

Another round of minor injuries again limited Seay's season and resulted in him departing the Rockies as a minor league free agent. Landing a deal with Detroit just might reverse his failing fortunes since the Tigers seem to want a second southpaw behind Jamie Walker. Given Seay's continually solid minor league skills, he appears fully capable of earning a small amount of positive value, albeit not enough to merit fantasy employment as anything more than roster filler.


National League Reliever Reviews continue tomorrow.


Today's Fantasy Rx: On another day full of journeymen and relief specialists, only Tom Gorzelanny possesses more than miniscule fantasy value at the moment. A couple of guys like Dana Eveland and Matt Herges might emerge as decent options at some point this season, but they don't belong on your draft list at this time.


Click here to read the previous article.

Please e-mail your comments to tim@rotohelp.com.
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