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February
12th
2006
Your Daily Fantasy Rx
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NL Outfielders: Day Seven
by Tim Polko

Today's Fantasy Rx

National League Outfielders without Positive Draft Value

Quick Key to the tables:
AB = At-bats.  H = Hits.  BA = Batting Average.  HR= Home Runs.
RBI = Runs Batted In.  SB = Stolen Bases.  R = Runs.  B = Bats.  T = Throws.
Pos = Position qualification based on 20 appearances or max. # of games in 2005.
Age = Player's Age as of October 2, 2005.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters in 2005.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters in 2005.
RAR = Runs Above Replacement in 2005; Adjusted RAR = RAR modified to
consider a player's 2005 defensive rating in Scoresheet fantasy baseball.

We ranked players in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, we listed each player in the league where he started the season.


99.ABHBAHRRBISBRPos
Chris Aguila7819.24404011O
FLO Marlins4x45x5RARAdj. RAR
Age: 26B:R    T:R-4-4-5-5.4

A respectable 2004 AAA campaign led to an Opening Day roster spot for Aguila. Unfortunately, he batted merely sixteen times in the first two months of the season, however spending June back at AAA Albuquerque(PCL) produced a .355/.412/.630 performance in 138 AB that pushed him right back to the majors. Now, despite continued problems with big league pitching in the second half and few observable baseball skills, Aguila appears on the short list for a starting outfield job. Even winning everyday at-bats shouldn't earn him a place on your fantasy squad until you see his averages improve.


100.ABHBAHRRBISBRPos
Adam Hyzdu367.1940412O
SD/BOS4x45x5RARAdj. RAR
Age: 33B:R    T:R-4-4-2.4-2.4

Hyzdu spent most of the first half with San Diego, compiling a .271/.406/.483 line with 11 HR, 32 RBI, and a 46:61 BB:K in 207 AB for AAA Portland(PCL). A July deal for Scott Cassidy briefly pushed him to the majors with the Red Sox, but he quickly returned to the minors, registering a .254/.343/.415 output with 4 HR, 25 RBI, and a 16:32 BB:K in 118 AB for AAA Pawtucket(IL). Signing with Texas for 2006 provides Hyzdu with another excellent opportunity if he impresses his new bosses during camp. His skills could thrive in Ameriquest, so although I can't recommend him at this time, feel free to add Hyzdu as soon as he earns a call-up.


101.ABHBAHRRBISBRPos
Tyrell Godwin30.0000000O
WAS Nationals4x45x5RARAdj. RAR
Age: 26B:L    T:R-4-4-0.5-0.5

Please refer to our Post-2005 Prospect Review: Washington for my comments on Godwin.


102.ABHBAHRRBISBRPos
Endy Chavez11625.216011219O
WAS/PHI4x45x5RARAdj. RAR
Age: 27B:L    T:L-4-4-7.8-6.7

I still can't believe Pat Gillick wasted Marlon Byrd just to acquire Chavez, whose skills don't measure up to those of Shane Victorino, forget about Byrd. Yet somehow Chavez landed in Philly, producing truly terrible numbers that couldn't even offset with several steals. Perhaps his new deal with the Mets will reverse his declining SB totals, but nothing here allows me to envision a role for Chavez on successful fantasy teams. Completely ignore him unless you him starting to steal bases regularly.


103.ABHBAHRRBISBRPos
Jeffrey Hammonds327.2190103O
WAS Nationals4x45x5RARAdj. RAR
Age: 34B:R    T:R-4-4-2.3-2.5

Hamstring problems forced Hammonds to the DL in May, and Washington optioned him to AAA New Orleans upon his return three weeks later. Hammonds retired rather than support, concluding a respectable if thoroughly unspectacular career after thirteen seasons yet less than a thousand MLB games.


104.ABHBAHRRBISBRPos
Chris Magruder13828.203213316O
MIL Brewers4x45x5RARAdj. RAR
Age: 28B:S    T:R-4-4-8.9-9.3

Although Magruder spent all year on the Brewers' bench, his mediocre performance finally got him booted from the 40-man roster at season's end. He doesn't deserve another big league opportunity any time soon after clearly demonstrating his minimal upside in HR, SB, and BA. Don't bother rostering him for any reason.


105.ABHBAHRRBISBRPos
Doug Clark50.0000002O
SF Giants4x45x5RARAdj. RAR
Age: 29B:L    T:R-4-5-0.9-0.9

Please refer to our Post-2005 Prospect Review: San Francisco for my comments on Clark.


106.ABHBAHRRBISBRPos
Todd Self459.2001407O
HOU Astros4x45x5RARAdj. RAR
Age: 26B:L    T:R-4-4-2.9-3.4

Please refer to our Post-2005 Prospect Review: New York(N) for my comments on Self.


107.ABHBAHRRBISBRPos
Dan Ortmeier223.1360111O
SF Giants4x45x5RARAdj. RAR
Age: 24B:S    T:L-4-5-2.5-2.5

Please refer to our Post-2005 Prospect Review: San Francisco for my comments on Ortmeier.


108.ABHBAHRRBISBRPos
Raul Mondesi14230.211417017O
ATL Braves4x45x5RARAdj. RAR
Age: 34B:R    T:R-4-4-6.6-8.3

Technically Mondesi didn't return and even might want to return this summer, but after more underachieving seasons interrupted only by persistent off-field issues, he may not receive another shot a the majors. While I still see some power potential here, his minimal BA will offset any quantitative value he manages, rendering Mondesi effectively useless until further notice.


109.ABHBAHRRBISBRPos
Marquis Grissom13729.21221518O
SF Giants4x45x5RARAdj. RAR
Age: 38B:R    T:R-4-5-9.9-9.2

Knee and hamstring problems benched Grissom for most of June and July, and San Francisco finally DFA'd him following the acquisition of Randy Winn. The Cubs waited until after the season to give Grissom a minor league deal, but after the worst year of his career, he appears unlikely to contribute helpful numbers even if he lands a job on the end of Dusty Baker's bench. Even a relatively strict platoon role doesn't seem likely to minimize Grissom's downside to the point where he merits much fantasy attention.


110.ABHBAHRRBISBRPos
Dave Krynzel70.0000000O
MIL Brewers4x45x5RARAdj. RAR
Age: 23B:L    T:L-4-5-1.3-1.3

Please refer to our Post-2005 Prospect Review: Milwaukee for my comments on Krynzel.


111.ABHBAHRRBISBRPos
Brandon Watson407.1751508O
WAS Nationals4x45x5RARAdj. RAR
Age: 24B:L    T:R-4-5-3.6-3.6

Please refer to our Post-2005 Prospect Review: Washington for my comments on Watson.


112.ABHBAHRRBISBRPos
Tony Blanco6211.1771717O
WAS Nationals4x45x5RARAdj. RAR
Age: 23B:R    T:R-4-5-5.5-5.1

Perhaps the worst Rule 5 pick from 2004, Blanco nevertheless followed Jim Bowden to Washington and spent half the year in the majors before vertigo sidelined him for a month. He added absolutely nothing to the Nationals before or after his return, finishing the year with a .215 OBP, .274 SLG, and little hope of resuming a big league career any time soon. Do not acquire him in any fantasy league despite a unique middle name of Hemiphere.


113.ABHBAHRRBISBRPos
Cody Ross254.1600101O
LA Dodgers4x45x5RARAdj. RAR
Age: 24B:R    T:L-4-5-2.8-2.8

Please refer to our Post-2005 Prospect Review: Los Angeles(N) for my comments on Ross.


114.ABHBAHRRBISBRPos
Eric Valent438.1860104O
NY Mets4x45x5RARAdj. RAR
Age: 28B:L    T:L-5-5-3-3.4

A year after enjoying regular outfield duty for the Mets, Valent only lasted until late May with New York before his unsurprising demotion. Although he mildly rebounded in the minors, he still only managed a .255/.380/.407 output with 9 HR, 38 RBI, and a 55:58 BB:K in 275 AB. We can't consider him as anything more than roster filler until he resecures a regular job in the majors.


115.ABHBAHRRBISBRPos
Scott Hairston202.1000000O
ARI Diamondbacks4x45x5RARAdj. RAR
Age: 25B:R    T:R-5-6-2.9-2.6

One of fantasy's forgotten future studs, Hairston continued to abuse AAA pitching, compiling a .306/.380/.603 performance with 16 HR, 39 RBI, and a 21:40 BB:K in 209 AB for Tucson(PCL). He unfortunately required season-ending labrum surgery in July, but despite his inconsistent work since reaching Arizona in 2004, I still see significant upside in these numbers. A healthy Hairston could exceed twenty homers in a corner outfield slot, so consider spending a reserve pick on the recovering ex-prospect while certainly remaining vigilant if a change of scenery creates any opportunity for him.


116.ABHBAHRRBISBRPos
Luke Scott8015.1880416O
HOU Astros4x45x5RARAdj. RAR
Age: 27B:L    T:R-5-6-5.7-5.7

Please refer to our Post-2005 Prospect Review: Houston for my comments on Scott.


117.ABHBAHRRBISBRPos
Roger Cedeno579.1580804O
STL Cardinals4x45x5RARAdj. RAR
Age: 31B:S    T:R-6-6-7.4-7.6

The expiration of Cedeno's four-year deal casts the veteran into free agent limbo after hamstring problems sent him to the DL in June and led to his release mere weeks later. Although he still owns a little plate discipline, the disappearance of his formerly consistent double-digit SB output firmly destroys his otherwise respectable roto value. Cedeno no longer appears able to help any fantasy team.


118.ABHBAHRRBISBRPos
Jason Grabowski11218.161412114O
LA Dodgers4x45x5RARAdj. RAR
Age: 29B:L    T:R-6-6-9.8-10.7

Grabowski registered a .309/.410/.508 performance with 6 HR, 33 RBI, and a 30:26 BB: in 181 AB for AAA Las Vegas(PCL), however his failure even to echo his unimpressive 2004 big league averages apparently sticks him with a firm AAAA label. Befitting a player with his skills, he signed with Orix in Japan for 2006, which obviously removes him from receiving any fantasy consideration.


AL Starting Pitcher Week begins tomorrow.


Today's Fantasy Rx: Right now Brandon Watson looks like the only outfielder listed above with a decent chance to win a regular job, but the minor league numbers of Scott Hairston and Luke Scott indicate plenty of upside. Feel free to target any member of this trio at a few bucks to fill out your outfield.


Click here to read the previous article.

Please e-mail your comments to tim@rotohelp.com.
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