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May
21st
2005
Your Daily Fantasy Rx
Rotohelp
'05 NL LPR through 7 Weeks
by Tim Polko

Today's Fantasy Rx

Welcome to our weekly LPR rankings, our primary method to identify highly skilled and/or consistently effective pitchers. Please refer to the end of the article for a complete description of the codes. We've included the five most recent 2005 QA scores for each starter, along with the 10 most recent QA scores for each reliever, tabulating all data through May 18th. Pitchers with no QA scores have not pitched this year, so don't roster any of them unless you see someone ready to return to the majors.


1
23bcyz - John Smoltz(21334)
2ABCYZ - Roy Oswalt(42445)
2ABXY - Jake Peavy(54534)
2ABX - A.J. Burnett(45353)
3CXZ - Esteban Loaiza(44323)
ABCXYZ - Roger Clemens(43435)
ABX - Matt Morris(44425)
ABY - Aaron Heilman(05443)
AX - Derek Lowe(44345)
AX - Dontrelle Willis(54544)
AX - Brett Myers(44433)

Smoltz surprisingly emerged as the first pitcher to reach the 123 standard this year, although he lags far behind at least a half-dozen others here in overall value. The Mets' decision to send Heilman to the pen ranks with the worst moves of the season given the ineffectiveness of the majority of their starting staff.


2
3B - Brad Penny(35402)
BY - Ben Sheets(3342)
Bz - Glendon Rusch(014)
B - Jeff Weaver(24242)
C - Livan Hernandez(23434)

An intriguing double next week could lead to a rapid increase in Rusch's value. Livan also now appears on track to post strong numbers over the balance of the year.

3abcxyz - Billy Wagner(4244344433)
3bcyz - Eric Gagne(34)
abcxyz - Jason Isringhausen(4452543443)
abcxyz - Julian Tavarez(4534534544)
abxy - Mike Gonzalez(5442445244)
abxy - Ryan Madson(4545533244)
by - Salomon Torres(4301133133)


3
ABCXZ - Pedro Martinez(55433)
ACXYZ - Mark Mulder(43453)
ACXZ - Mark Prior(41544)
CYZ - Tim Hudson(33304)

abcxy - Guillermo Mota(3335234444)
abcyz - LaTroy Hawkins(5444223434)
cxyz - Mike Koplove(4232233343)
cxyz - Javier Lopez(4024413335)
cz - Byung-Hyun Kim(3352303432)
cz - Rheal Cormier(3235554413)
cz - Joe Borowski
c - Tim Spooneybarger


A
BCXY - Andy Pettitte(34434)
BYZ - Carlos Zambrano(40440)
CXZ - Josh Beckett(40544)
CXZ - Brandon Webb(43434)
BX - Dave Williams(34344)
BX - Chris Carpenter(43434)
CX - Javier Vazquez(44554)
XY - Jason Marquis(34323)
B - Cory Lidle(24455)
X - Aaron Harang(43353)
X - Brandon Backe(44233)
X - Mark Redman(41343)
Z - Kip Wells(34444)
Brian Lawrence(05244)

Looking to add any of the last half-dozen pitchers at this ranking could pay welcome dividends in any standard league due to the upside suggested by their respective skill sets.


B
CZ - Jason Schmidt(34120)
C - Odalis Perez(24323)
Y - Greg Maddux(43243)
Y - Oliver Perez(20400)
Y - Joe Kennedy(32331)
Doug Davis(05133)
Kerry Wood(32240)

c - Dennys Reyes(0345343332)


C
y - Jeff Fassero(40)

Zby - Darren Dreifort
axz - Adam Bernero(5442244533)
b - Jim Brower(3202234354)


X
John Patterson(43303)
Kirk Rueter(34434)
Brian Moehler(03553)

Continued productivity renders Moehler an excellent addition to any NL team. He used to own respectable skills with the Tigers and now pitches in a far friendlier environment.

by - Ryan Dempster(4453)

Dempster still needs to withstand a challenge from Joe Borowski to insure he remains the Cubs' closer; investing any significant resources in him right now seems rather risky.


Y
John Van Benschoten


Z
Randy Wolf(02234)
Tony Armas(33)


a
bcxyz - Braden Looper(4333353544)
bcxyz - Luis Ayala(2335443255)
bcxy - Chris Reitsma(4444334243)
bcxy - Brad Lidge(3044344444)
bcyz - Tim Worrell(3545425331)
bcyz - Danny Kolb(3534450352)
bcy - Jim Mecir(2502545422)
bxy - Trevor Hoffman(5555454333)
bxy - Al Reyes(4033435333)
bxy - Akinori Otsuka(4445333354)
bxy - Heath Bell(1433442453)
bxy - Chad Qualls(4442333314)
cxy - Kevin Gryboski(4343035444)
cxz - Derrick Turnbow(4524435445)
cx - Roberto Hernandez(4333235155)
bx - John Grabow(3545451434)
bx - Jose Mesa(4435244322)
by - Tommy Phelps(0415354322)
xy - Chris Hammond(4334233434)
xy - Rudy Seanez(4345335333)
c - Mike Remlinger(4042543451)
x - Giovanni Carrara(4543535443)
x - Manny Aybar(4535424343)
x - Will Ohman(3302445444)
x - Nate Bump(3353545334)

Place Bump on the short list in any league where you need qualitative help.

x - Mike Wuertz(3414323445)
x - Ryan Wagner(5325540343)
x - Randy Flores(0345235434)
y - Duaner Sanchez(4433435451)
y - Chad Fox(2443452340)
Rick White(4335512454)
Kelly Wunsch(4233540452)
Ricky Bottalico(2233454442)
Russ Springer(5442344324)
Brandon Lyon(2342234534)


b
cyz - Scott Williamson
cy - Ray King(5330244352)
cy - Mike Lincoln
cy - Armando Benitez(43240442)
cz - Jose Valverde(530445)
xy - Yhency Brazoban(5533534424)
xy - Scott Linebrink(3415353445)
yz - Antonio Alfonseca(434352)
y - Danny Graves(3341423341)
y - Mike DeJean(5233431524)
y - Brian Bruney(1543343322)
y - Chin-hui Tsao(4132422250)
y - Jose Acevedo(2224333224)
z - Brian Fuentes(3333345533)
z - Brian Meadows(3342443343)
z - Oscar Villarreal(22)
T.J. Tucker(443344)
Mike Adams(4232224340)
Wilson Alvarez(3443332)
Jon Leicester(42343)
Frank Brooks(3)


c
y - Joey Eischen(5245512430)
z - Matt Herges(2244025224)
z - Jay Witasick(531435544)
Bobby Seay(255)
Cal Eldred(35)


x
Darrell May(03)

z - John Franco(4330443434)
Todd Jones(5332455333)
Aaron Fultz(3233443535)
Jason Christiansen(4344224033)
Marco Carvajal(3334353334)
David Weathers(3334433532)
Dan Wheeler(4333432433)
Matt Wise(3355330353)
Lance Cormier(4532333352)
Hector Carrasco(3244325333)
Chad Cordero(2345233334)
Matt Belisle(3331443323)
Ryan Speier(3333205333)

Hopefully the Marlins will let Jones continue to excel in his former role as closer while Mota returns to his old role as a dominant middle reliever, but with no guarantee of any fantasy contribution following Mota's return, shopping Jones now looks like a good idea.


y
Tim Redding(20050)

Gary Majewski(4423403223)
Joe Horgan(32243433)
Antonio Osuna(1401)
Greg Aquino(2)
Elmer Dessens()


z
Terry Adams(4434231244)
Ricky Stone(223243)
John Foster(435333453)


1 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2005.
2 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2004.
3 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2003.


QA score for starts: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any starter who pitches at least 5 innings and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP-2, BB<=IP/3, H<=IP, HR<=1, and G-F>=1.00. Any starter who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to pitch 5 innings earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

QA score for relief outings: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any reliever who retires at least one batter and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP, BB=0, H<=IP, HR=0, and G-F>=1.00. Any reliever who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to retire a batter earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

Note: Starters must pitch in five games before earning any of the following DOM or DIS ratings; relievers must appear in no less than 10 games before earning DOM/DIS consideration. All pitchers are evaluated as relievers aside from those who reached both 5 starts in a given season and qualified for DOM or DIS ratings.

A - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2005 starts
B - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2004 starts
C - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2003 starts

X - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2005 starts
Y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2004 starts
Z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2003 starts

a - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2005 relief outings
b - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2004 relief outings
c - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2003 relief outings

x - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2005 relief outings
y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2004 relief outings
z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2003 relief outings


Today's Fantasy Rx: Only three pitchers currently own strings of five straight dominant outings through today. The appearance of Dontrelle Willlis(54544) in this trio won't surprise anyone, but Javier Vazquez(45445) qualifies as rather underrated considering his current skills. Cory Lidle(44554) ranks as the shocker here, however he always possessed strong skills and certainly could flourish in a productive pitching environment. While CB Park hardly meets that standard, he looks like an excellent target for anyone seeking qualitative help at minimal cost.


Click here to read the previous article.

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