Today's Fantasy Rx

After reviewing relievers last week, I'll look at the most dominant starters in 2005 this weekend. Once again, please remember that the fairly limited sample size of statistics generated over the last three weeks renders the following comments far more useful as general suggestions rather than strong recommendations.

QA score for starts: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any starter who pitches at least 5 innings and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP-2, BB<=IP/3, H<=IP, HR<=1, and G-F>=1.00. Any starter who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to pitch 5 innings earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

We've included the most recent QA scores for each pitcher.

4 DOM, 0 DUL, 0 DIS
Bartolo Colon, LAA(4444): 3-1 on a 20:8 K:BB in 27.2 IP over 4 GS with 23 H, 1 HR, a 1.17 G-F, and a 2.60 ERA. While April historically ranks as a bad month for Colon, he pitched fairly well early last spring before combusting in May and June. Colon then posted a 3.64 ERA on an 82:37 K:BB in 104 second-half innings, indicating that only inconsistency might keep him from reemerging as one of baseball's best starters. Now, after his first four starts of 2005, he ranks as the most consistently dominant pitcher in the league. All his skills appear strong, he remains the best pitcher on a likely playoff team, and a strong defense and bullpen provide superb support. Take advantage of any opportunity to acquire the early favorite for the AL Cy Young before Colon's value completely returns to the heights reached with Cleveland.

3 DOM, 1 DUL, 0 DIS
Johan Santana, MIN(5534): 3-0 on a 37:2 K:BB in 25 IP over 4 GS with 23 H, 3 HR, a 1.47 G-F, and a 4.32 ERA. The reigning AL Cy Young winner continues to rank among the most valuable pitchers in baseball. Santana's skills actually appear a level above his 2004 performance as his surprisingly strong ground-fly rate and unbelievable 18.5 K:BB suggest an ERA at least a run below his current level. With the Twins' relief corps providing him with fantastic support, Santana should cruise to another $20 season, so definitely target him in any league where his temporarily elevated qualitative stats might result in a trade discount for you.

Gustavo Chacin, TOR(4345): 3-1 on a 15:6 K:BB in 25 IP over 4 GS with 19 H, 2 HR, a 1.50 G-F, and a 2.52 ERA. A questionable command history worried me headed into the year despite 16 wins for AA New Haven(EL) last summer that ranked him among the minor league leaders. Chacin still doesn't own great skills and won't contribute an abundance of strikeouts, but solid control and limited downside certainly make him a safe investment now. Feel free to deploy him even in mixed leagues, although unless you already own him, wait to send any trade inquiries in AL-only leagues until a few more dominant outings demonstrate that Chacin missed nothing by only starting two AAA games before his promotion to the Blue Jays.

Mark Buehrle, CHW(4344): 3-1 on a 23:6 K:BB in 31 IP over 4 GS with 18 H, 2 HR, a 1.63 G-F, and a 2.61 ERA. I still don't trust Buehrle due to his unimpressive dominance, however the combination of excellent control and a low hit rate supported by Chicago's improved defense makes him a good investment in any league. While the Sox won't maintain their current winning percentage, making anything above a dozen more wins rather unlikely, his qualitative contribution insures a high double-digit value for the surprisingly unheralded young ace. Target Buehrle anywhere his reputation lags behind his performance, particularly AL leagues filled with Cubs' fans.

3 DOM, 0 DUL, 0 DIS
Pedro Astacio, TEX(544): 1-1 on a 15:3 K:BB in 22 IP over 3 GS with 17 H, 0 HR, a 2.06 G-F, and a 1.64 ERA. His extended tour in Colorado and overbearing injury problems over the last two years nicely obscure a formerly excellent skill set. Yes, Texas presents another difficult pitching environment for Astacio, but his strong ground-fly rate limits his downside and his low walk rate similarly will keep his ERA low. I see no reason not to deploy Astacio anywhere you easily can acquire a potential ace who still remains a free agent in some shallower leagues.

3 DOM, 0 DUL, 1 DIS
Matt Clement, BOS(0455): 2-0 on a 23:11 K:BB in 25.1 IP over 4 GS with 26 H, 1 HR, a 1.48 G-F, and a 2.13 ERA. Expecting Clement to move to the American League and overcome his longstanding inconsistent control seems quite unreasonable, but with an otherwise strong skill set, he belongs in any discussion of the top dozen AL starters. With 15 wins and 200 strikeouts a foregone conclusion barring injury, Clement particularly helps in 5x5 leagues, although a solid ERA will offset any possible WHIP problems regardless of your league's categories. Also remember that only an improved walk rate stands between Clement and an annual fantasy value over $20, so you might want to target him now before his trade cost increases in step with the publicity he'll receive as he firmly replaces Pedro as Boston's second ace.

Jarrod Washburn, LAA(4144): 0-0 on an 18:5 K:BB in 24.1 IP over 4 GS with 33 H, 4 HR, a .97 G-F, and a 4.07 ERA. A very high hit rate, consistently weak ground-fly rate, and general lack of dominance all suggest obvious downside here. However, Washburn also plays for a likely playoff team that fields a strong defense and outstanding bullpen, so he quietly could post another $15 season. Take advantage of his relatively to slow start to acquire the Angels' veteran before any winning streak sends his fantasy value skyrocketing.

We'll continue tomorrow by discussing NL starters.

Internet Challenge

With Nomar out for the first half and our team in desperate need of saves, not to mention another SP this weekend, we're adding Miguel Batista and cutting Garciaparra.

SP(6)
Randy Johnson: Sun:TEX(P.Astacio)
Roger Clemens: Sat:@STL(M.Mulder)
Mark Mulder: Sat:HOU(R.Clemens)
Jake Peavy: Sat:ARI(B.Webb)
Miguel Batista: 3 Home vs. BAL.
A.J. Burnett: Fri:CIN(A.Harang)

No starts: Santana, Schmidt, Pedro, Oswalt, Sheets, Harden, Oliver Perez, and Beckett.

We'll deploy all six of our starters and hope that Saturday's Astros/Cardinals contest results in a minimum of runs. Jose Reyes obviously enters our starting lineup for the indefinite future with Nomar gone, and then an abundance of cap room allows us to deploy Pujols, Marcus Giles, and Podsednik for Teixeira, Iguchi, and Mench, also leaving Morneau benched until he demonstrates a full return to health. Our Rockies certainly remain active with Colorado at home this weekend.

Rotohelp.com(6th lg; 274th overall)
Week 3b: April 22-April 24

C	Victor Martinez		860
C	John Buck		390 
1B	Albert Pujols		1930
1B	Travis Hafner		810
2B	Brian Roberts		960 
2B	Marcus Giles		950
3B	Melvin Mora		1270
3B	Troy Glaus		830
SS	Jose Reyes		850
SS	Clint Barmes		400
OF	Carl Crawford		1560 
OF	Jim Edmonds		1250 
OF	Adam Dunn		1110
OF	Miguel Cabrera		1110 
OF	Matt Holliday		630
OF	Jeremy Reed		400
UT	Todd Helton		1740 
UT	Scott Podsednik		1090

SP	Randy Johnson		1980
SP	Roger Clemens		1280 
SP	Mark Mulder		1060
SP	Jake Peavy		1030 
SP	Miguel Batista		840
SP	A.J. Burnett		830
RP	Francisco Rodriguez	1250
RP	Octavio Dotel		1240
RP	B.J. Ryan		950
RP	Guillermo Mota		950

Total Salary for Week 3b 	29550

Today's Fantasy Rx: I don't expect to see Gustavo Chacin on any free agent lists, however Pedro Astacio's health problems, past ineffectiveness, and the downside of pitching in Texas could lead many owners to pass on the veteran for another week or two. Given his three dominant starts and the very intriguing quantitative upside he possesses, definitely try to nab Astacio in any league where he remains available.