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April
15th
2005
Your Daily Fantasy Rx
Rotohelp
'05 AL LPR through 2 Weeks
by Tim Polko

Today's Fantasy Rx

With only Randy Johnson, Roy Halladay, Jamie Moyer, and Brad Radke at more than two starts, I only will review relievers this week. Please remember that the extremely limited sample size of statistics generated thus far in 2005 renders the following comments far more useful as general guidelines rather than specific recommendations.


QA score for relief outings: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any reliever who retires at least one batter and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP, BB=0, H<=IP, HR=0, and G-F>=1.00. Any reliever who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to retire a batter earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

We've included the five most recent QA scores for each pitcher.


4 DOM, 1 DUL, 0 DIS
Juan Rincon, MIN(44354): 1-0 on a 9:2 K:BB in 5 IP over 5 G with 2 H, 0 HR, a 4-3 G-F, and a 0.00 ERA. The Twins again own the most productive late-inning relief corps in the game, highlighted not by Joe Nathan's effectiveness in the ninth inning but by the consistent dominance of Rincon in the preceding frames. While slight control problems continue to worry me to some extent, I see no reason not to target Rincon in any AL league where he remains available. He appears on track to win at least another half-dozen games while likely contributing in all five standard pitching categories. Even an abundance of baserunners shouldn't translate into real WHIP damage, so feel free to consider Rincon an excellent target as one of any middle reliever in the game.


4 DOM, 0 DUL, 0 DIS
J.C. Romero, MIN(4455): 0-0 on a 6:0 K:BB in 4.1 IP over 6 G with 2 H, 0 HR, a 7-1 G-F, and a 0.00 ERA. Romero ranks among the top two relievers here for the second straight season, an impressive feat given the frequent turnover at this position. Both his early command and ground-fly ratios indicate intriguing growth, and although neither Rincon nor Romero will push out Nathan any time soon, both Twins' middlemen remain excellent options for owners looking to improve their qualitative foundation. Based on his slightly superior track record, I even prefer to acquire Romero at this point since I believe his superior ERA and WHIP will negate the extra wins Rincon should accumulate.


4 DOM, 0 DUL, 1 DIS
Bob Wickman, CLE(15454): 0-1 and 3 Saves on a 3:1 K:BB in 4.1 IP over 5 G with 7 H, 2 HR, a 5-7 G-F, and a 10.39 ERA. Yes, the Cleveland closer combusted in his first outing but four straight dominant outings, including three saves, bolsters my confidence that Wickman will remain sufficiently effective to keep his current role until injury or contract status results in a change. Consider his initial struggle, combined with the media harangue regarding overall closer problems over the first week of the season, an excellent opportunity to acquire a potential 40-save closer for minimum cost.


3 DOM, 2 DUL, 0 DIS
Scot Shields, LAA(33455): 2-0 and 1 Save on a 10:4 K:BB in 6.2 IP over 5 G with 4 H, 1 HR, a 6-4 G-F, and a 2.70 ERA. His emergence as KRod's alternate in Anaheim over both Brendan Donnelly and Esteban Yan ranks with the biggest usage surprises of the year. I know Shields excelled as a short reliever in Donnelly's absence last year, but I figured that his ability to dominate for multiple innings at a time increased his utility to the Angels. Instead Shields now ranks as the most valuable non-closing reliever in the league due to the strong likelihood of him attaining double-digit figures in both wins and saves. Target him immediately if you see any chance to add him to your roster.


3 DOM, 1 DUL, 0 DIS
Huston Street, OAK(3554): 0-0 on a 7:1 K:BB in 5 IP over 4 G with 4 H, 0 HR, a 5-3 G-F, and a 1.80 ERA. No one expected Street to develop into a relief ace this soon, however nothing in these numbers suggests he won't continue to thrive in the majors. Look to acquire him in any reasonably deep league, especially if a single-digit salary makes him a prime keeper for future season. His background, repertoire, and skills all make him the most likely successor when payroll considerations or even a surprising degree of ineffectiveness result in Octavio Dotel's departure as Oakland's closer.

Kiko Calero, OAK(3445): 1-0 on a 7:1 K:BB in 5 IP over 4 G with 3 H, 0 HR, a 5-5 G-F, and a 0.00 ERA. Of course, Street may not inherit many save opportunities if Calero continue to perform. The former minor league free agent now ranks as one of the safest middle relievers to own based on his consistently strong skill set and an ideal situation to flourish as part of a loaded Atheltics' bullpen. With the press surrounding Shields likely rendering him prohibitively expensive in any decently competitive league, consider Calero the primary alternative target when looking to improve your qualitative foundation.

Joe Nathan, MIN(4453): 0-0 and 2 Saves on a 4:0 K:BB in 4 IP over 4 G with 4 H, 0 H, a 4-6 G-F, and a 0.00 ERA. Although a low ground-fly ratio renders Nathan slightly more inconsistent than most comparable players, he still ranks among the most valuable relievers in the majors. His overall dominance, new long-term deal, and placement behind the ace set-up duo of Rincon and Romero solidifies his standing as a lock to save no less than another 30 games. Don't rule out another run at 40 if Nathan's early effectiveness continue throughout the year, making him a good target for anyone needing saves.

Todd Williams, BAL(4344): 1-0 on a 3:1 K:BB in 5 IP over 4 G with 1 H, 0 HR, an 8-5 G-F, and a 0.00 ERA. While I almost waited to discuss Williams until next week's article, he also qualifies as the only reliever among the pitchers listed here who will be available in many leagues; we only opted against selecting him in spring drafts since he only barely scratched the Baltimore bullpen upon Jay Witasick's surprising departure. Williams posted posted very impressive skills last fall and appears set to earn a very quiet $5-10 this season. Feel free to acquire him anywhere you want an alternative to an irritating flammable starting pitcher.


We'll continue tomorrow with the first in-season NL LPR article of the year.


Internet Challenge

While we're not adding Miguel Batista or switching closers quite yet, our extreme lack of saves soon may prompt a move. Dontrelle Willis also appears quite tempting, but we won't consider him until Sunday since he won't pitch this weekend.

SP(6)
Johan Santana: Fri:@CLE(J.Westbrook)
Jason Schmidt: Sat:@COL(J.Kennedy)
Pedro Martinez: Sat:FLO(A.Leiter)
Roy Oswalt: Fri:@CIN(P.Wilson)
Ben Sheets: Fri:STL(J.Suppan)
Rich Harden: Sat:LAA(J.Washburn)
Oliver Perez: Fri:CHC(C.Zambrano)
A.J. Burnett: Sun:@NYM(T.Glavine)
Josh Beckett: Fri:@NYM(A.Heilman)

No starts: Randy, Clemens, Mulder, and Peavy.

Despite Perez both struggling and facing solid opposition and a Schmidt start in Coors, we still possess seven solid options here. Santana, Pedro, Burnett, and Beckett all own outstanding skills right now, so we'll opt for the slightly safer home starts of Sheets and Harden over the relatively inconsistent Oswalt against the surprisingly hot Reds' offense.

Iguchi and Edmonds replace Giles and Podsednik, both suffering from newly-disclosed injuries. Morneau and Jose Reyes also stay benched with the former on the DL and nowhere to slot the latter. Colorado's homestand forces Holliday into the lineup, displacing Kevin Mench instead of Jeremy Reed thanks to inconsistent playing time, a slow start, and no guarantee of at-bats even with Texas facing a couple of southpaws at home this weekend.

Rotohelp.com(19th lg; 613th overall)
Week 2b: April 15-April 17

C	Victor Martinez		860
C	John Buck		390
1B	Mark Teixeira		1310
1B	Travis Hafner		810
2B	Brian Roberts		960
2B	Tadahito Iguchi		750 
3B	Melvin Mora		1270
3B	Troy Glaus		830
SS	Nomar Garciaparra	1130
SS	Clint Barmes		400
OF	Carl Crawford		1560 
OF	Jim Edmonds		1250 
OF	Adam Dunn		1110
OF	Miguel Cabrera		1110 
OF	Matt Holliday		630
OF	Jeremy Reed		400
UT	Albert Pujols		1930
UT	Todd Helton		1740

SP	Johan Santana		1710 
SP	Pedro Martinez		1450
SP	Ben Sheets		1200 
SP	Rich Harden		900
SP	A.J. Burnett		830
SP	Josh Beckett		820
RP	Francisco Rodriguez	1250
RP	Octavio Dotel		1240
RP	B.J. Ryan		950
RP	Guillermo Mota		950

Total Salary for Week 2b 	29740


Today's Fantasy Rx: If today's deadline to pay income tax somehow slipped your mind, we strongly recommend heading here immediately to file for an extension.


Click here to read the previous article.

Please e-mail your comments to tim@rotohelp.com.
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