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March
29th
2005
Your Daily Fantasy Rx
Rotohelp
2005 Top NL Fantasy Prospects
by Tim Polko

Today's Fantasy Rx

Once again, we're presenting prospect lists specifically geared towards fantasy baseball with no consideration of "peak" or "long-term potential" other than what a player will contribute in standard 4x4 and 5x5 leagues.


We've ranked players in three lists for this article. The top 150 prospects list is meant for Ultra drafts, the top 42 prospects is intended exclusively for owners in extremely deep leagues who desire the best prospect trade bait, and our top 25 prospects of 2005-06 list is meant for traditional roto leagues with three-round minor league drafts.

I projected four values for each prospect listed below: his likely value in 2005, his 2005 roto upside, his likely 2006 value, and his likely long-term upside considering the prospect's tools, skills, and age. After averaging these values, weighted heavily towards potential 2005 considerations as well as adjusting the relative value of pitchers downward due to the greater volatility in projecting pitcher development, we arrived at a rough ranking of the prospects in each league.


A few players on the first list will be minor league veterans who only need a chance to succeed in the majors. I designated these players with an asterisk for those of you only interested in drafting more traditional prospects.

Rule 5 draftees have a ^ next to their names; their placement on the list assumes they remain with their new teams. Ignore them if returned to their former franchise as they have practically no chance of breaking camp with their old team.


Before beginning, we want to note our appreciation for all the resources available to everyone interested in minor leaguers from established analysts like John Sickels, as well as Kevin Goldstein and everyone at Baseball America. We hope you enjoy these two days of prospects.


Note: We employed MLB rookie guidelines, so no one here has exceeded 130 MLB AB or 50 MLB IP, or has accumulated 45 days on an MLB roster prior to September 1st of any season.

* - denotes players not on a 40-man roster nor considered a prospect due to age

^ - denotes players selected in the 2004 Major League Rule 5 draft


Rotohelp's Top 150 NL Ultra Fantasy Prospects for 2005
1. Garrett Atkins, 3B, COL
2. Brad Hawpe, OF, COL
3. J.D. Closser, C, COL
4. Chris Burke, 2B, HOU
5. Clint Barmes, SS/2B, COL
6. Jason Ellison, OF, SF
7. Willy Taveras, OF, HOU
8. Chris Snyder, C, ARI
9. Jason Dubois, OF, CHC
10. Prince Fielder, 1B, MIL
11. Ryan Church, OF, WAS
12. Freddy Guzman, OF, SD
13. Ryan Howard, 1B, PHI
14. Ryan Langerhans, OF, ATL
15. Corey Hart, OF, MIL
16. Justin Germano, SP, SD
17. Freddy Sanchez, IF, PIT
18. Luke Scott, OF, HOU
19. Andy Marte, 3B, ATL
20. Dave Kryznel, OF, MIL
21. Koyie Hill, C, ARI
22. Edwin Encarnacion, 3B, CIN
23. Jeremy Hermida, OF, FLO
24. J.J. Hardy, SS, MIL
25. Cory Sullivan, OF, COL
26. Josh Willingham, C, FLO
27. Todd Linden, OF, SF
28. Jorge Piedra, OF, COL
29. Victor Diaz, OF, NYM
30. Nate McLouth, OF, PIT
31. Dioner Navarro, C, LAD
32. Ben Hendrickson, SP, MIL
33. Rickie Weeks, 2B, MIL
34. Gavin Floyd, SP, PHI
35. Brad Halsey, SP, ARI
36. Carlos Quentin, OF, ARI
37. Merkin Valdez, SP, SF
38. Jeff Francis, SP, COL
39. Wayne Lydon, OF, NYM
40. Willie Bergolla, 2B, CIN
41. Wilson Betemit, IF, ATL
42. Zach Duke, SP, PIT
43. Tim Stauffer, SP, SD
44. Jorge de la Rosa, SP, MIL
45. Ezequiel Astacio, SP, HOU
46. Josh Kroeger, OF, ARI
47. Jon Knott, OF, SD
48. Brendan Harris, IF, WAS
49. Jose Capellan, SP, MIL
50. Jason Stokes, 1B, FLO
51. Todd Self, 1B, HOU
52. Conor Jackson, OF, ARI
53. Mike Edwards, 3B/OF, LAD*
54. Chris Duffy, OF, PIT
55. Ryan Doumit, C, PIT
56. Mike Fontenot, 2B, CHC
57. Royce Huffman, 1B, HOU
58. John Gall, OF, STL
59. Larry Broadway, 1B, WAS
60. Anderson Machado, SS, CIN
61. Yusmeiro Petit, SP, NYM
62. Jeff Keppinger, 2B, NYM
63. Jeff Francoeur, OF, ATL
64. Ryan Shealy, 1B, COL
65. Anthony Reyes, SP, STL
66. Yhency Brazoban, RP, LAD
67. Heath Bell, RP, NYM
68. Sergio Santos, SS, ARI
69. Edwin Jackson, SP, LAD
70. Graham Koonce, 1B, PIT*
71. Tyrell Godwin, OF, WAS
72. Russ Martin, C, LAD
73. Ian Snell, SP, PIT
74. Jeff Salazar, OF, COL
75. Brian Myrow, 1B, LAD
76. Josh Wilson, SS, FLO
77. Richard Lewis, 2B, CHC
78. Joe Dillon, 3B/OF, FLO
79. Rich Thompson, OF, PIT
80. Esix Snead, OF, ATL
81. Brad Baker, RP, SD
82. Elizardo Ramirez, RP, CIN
83. Nelson Cruz, OF, MIL
84. Chad Qualls, RP, HOU
85. Chris Aguila, OF, FLO
86. Kyle Nichols, 1B, ARI
87. Mike Cervenak, 3B, SF
88. Ian Stewart, 3B, COL
89. Michael Bourn, OF, PHI
90. Mike Hinckley, SP, WAS
91. Scott Olsen, SP, FLO
92. Shane Victorino, OF, PHI^
93. Norihiro Nakamura, 3B, LAD
94. Ramon Colon, RP, ATL
95. Ryan Speier, RP, COL
96. Jason Repko, OF, LAD
97. Craig Ansman, C, ARI
98. Noochie Varner, OF, ARI
99. Kyle Davies, SP, ATL
100. Mike Gosling, SP, ARI
101. Choo Freeman, OF, COL
102. Eddy Garabito, SS, COL*
103. Justin Reid, SP, PIT
104. Cody Ross, OF, LAD
105. Dave Kelton, OF, CHC
106. Scott Seabol, 3B/2B, STL
107. Matt Cain, SP, SF
108. Bill McCarthy, OF, ATL
109. Brian Barden, 3B/2B, ARI
110. Derek Wathan, 2B/OF, FLO
111. Matt Peterson, SP, PIT
112. Papo Bolivar, OF, STL
113. Josh Anderson, OF, HOU
114. Les Walrond, SP, FLO*
115. Fred Lewis, OF, SF
116. Josh Barfield, 2B, SD
117. Adam Wainwright, SP, STL
118. James Loney, 1B, LAD
119. Brad Thompson, SP, STL
120. Bobby Brownlie, SP, CHC
121. Brian Dallimore, 2B, SF
122. Chin-Feng Chen, OF, LAD
123. Ray Aguilar, SP, ATL
124. Brian Whitaker, SP, SD
125. Ricky Nolasco, SP, CHC
126. Pete Orr, 2B, ATL
127. Steve Kelly, SP, CIN
128. Carmen Pignatiello, SP, CHC
129. A.J. Zapp, 1B, CIN*
130. Nic Ungs, SP, FLO
131. J.J. Furmaniak, SS, SD
132. D.J. Houlton, RP, LAD^
133. Joel Guzman, SS, LAD
134. Felix Pie, OF, CHC
135. Willy Aybar, 2B, LAD
136. Jeff Baker, 3B, COL
137. Brad Eldred, 1B, PIT
138. Jamie D'Antona, 3B, ARI
139. Mike Rose, C, LAD*
140. Brad Hennessey, SP, SF
141. Tagg Bozied, 1B, SD
142. Delwyn Young, 2B, LAD
143. Matt Padgett, OF, FLO*
144. Paul McAnulty, 1B, SD
145. Greg Miller, SP, LAD
146. Tony Blanco, 3B, WAS
147. Josh Labandiera, SS, WAS
148. Bryan Bullington, SP, PIT
149. Ken Chenard, SP, NYM
150. Angel Guzman, SP, CHC


Rotohelp's Top 42 2005 NL Fantasy Prospects for Long-term Leagues
1. Chris Burke, 2B, HOU
2. Prince Fielder, 1B, MIL
3. Dave Krynzel, OF, MIL
4. Jeremy Hermida, OF, FLO
5. Nate McLouth, OF, PIT
6. Wayne Lydon, OF, NYM
7. James Loney, 1B, LAD
8. Ian Stewart, 3B, COL
9. Michael Bourn, OF, PHI
10. Josh Anderson, OF, HOU
11. Brad Hawpe, OF, COL
12. Freddy Guzman, OF, SD
13. Ryan Howard, 1B, PHI
14. Andy Marte, 3B, ATL
15. Jeff Francis, SP, COL
16. Jason Stokes, 1B, FLO
17. Greg Miller, SP, LA
18. Garrett Atkins, 3B, COL
19. Clint Barmes, SS/2B, COL
20. J.D. Closser, C, COL
21. Yhency Brazoban, RP, LAD
22. Jason Dubois, OF, CHC
23. Ryan Speier, RP, COL
24. Carlos Quentin, OF, ARI
25. Edwin Encarnacion, 3B, CIN
26. Zach Duke, SP, PIT
27. Jose Capellan, SP, MIL
28. Anthony Reyes, SP, STL
29. Brad Baker, RP, SD
30. Corey Hart, OF, MIL
31. Rickie Weeks, 2B, MIL
32. Yusmeiro Petit, SP, NYM
33. Edwin Jackson, SP, LAD
34. Dioner Navarro, C, LAD
35. William Bergolla, 2B, CIN
36. Conor Jackson, OF, ARI
37. Josh Willingham, C, FLO
38. Josh Kroeger, OF, ARI
39. Mike Hinckley, SP, WAS
40. Scott Olsen, SP, FLO
41. Matt Cain, SP, SF
42. Joel Guzman, SS, LAD


Rotohelp's Top 25 NL Fantasy Prospects for 2005…
who should merit keeping at $10 in 2006 per traditional rules
1. Chris Burke, 2B, HOU
2. Prince Fielder, MIL
3. Nate McLouth, OF, PIT 4. Brad Hawpe, OF, COL
5. Garrett Atkins, 3B, COL
6. Clint Barmes, SS/2B, COL
7. J.D. Closser, C, COL
8. Carlos Quentin, OF, ARI
9. Chris Snyder, C, ARI
10. Dave Krynzel, OF, MIL
11. Jeremy Hermida, OF, FLO
12. Freddy Guzman, OF, SD
13. Ryan Howard, 1B, PHI
14. Andy Marte, 3B, ATL
15. Jason Stokes, 1B, FLO
16. Edwin Encarnacion, 3B, CIN
17. Zach Duke, SP, PIT
18. Jose Capellan, SP, MIL
19. Anthony Reyes, SP, STL
20. Dioner Navarro, C, LAD
21. Willie Bergolla, 2B, CIN
22. Willy Taveras, OF, HOU
23. J.J. Hardy, SS, MIL
24. Ryan Langerhans, OF, ATL
25. Rickie Weeks, 2B, MIL


Today's Fantasy Rx: The presence of four rookie position players on the Rockies creates an intriguing opportunity in keeper leagues. At least one of Brad Hawpe, Garrett Atkins, J.D. Closser, and Clint Barmes should develop into a $30 player within the next three seasons, and as none of these players should cost much more than $10 at most in any standard league, you could net some outstanding keepers by targeting these youngsters. Right now the NL rookie quality pales in comparison to both the future stars and overall depth of the 2005 AL class, so counting on anyone other than the Rockies' rookie quartet as more than a supplemental player looks like a mistake. Expect Atkins to emerge as the best Colorado youngster and the NL Roto Rookie of the Year unless an unexpected full-time job results in Chris Burke, Willy Taveras, or even Jason Ellison or Freddy Guzman taking advantage of 500 at-bats to steal a few dozen bases.


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