Today's Fantasy Rx

American League Starting Pitchers with DV below $-5

Quick Key to the tables:
W = Wins.  S = Saves.  ERA = Earned Run Average (ER*9/IP).
WHIP = (Walks + Hits)/IP aka Ratio.  K = Strikeouts.  BB = Bases on Balls aka Walks.
H = Hits.  IP = Innings Pitched.  P = Pitches.  B = Bats.
Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2004.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
RAR = Runs Above Replacement; Adjusted RAR = RAR modified to
consider whether a pitcher qualified as a starter in Scoresheet fantasy baseball .

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season.

103.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Justin Miller		3	0	6.06	1.75	47	42	101	81.2
TOR Blue Jays		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 27	P:R    B:R	-6		-5		-0.9		-0.9

While Miller managed a solid 4.04 ERA on a 29:13 K:BB in 35.2 IP with 37 H and 4 HR over 6 May starts, a hamstring injury that cost him most of summer kept led to severe ineffectiveness following his August return. Miller still could develop into a useful big league pitcher, but with limited dominance and a likely permanent move to the bullpen, I don't expect him to emerge as a useful fantasy contributor any time soon.

104.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Kyle Denney		1	0	9.56	2.50	13	8	32	16
CLE Indians		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 27	P:R    B:R	-6		-6		-7.1		-7.1

Please refer to our Post-2004 Prospect Review: Cleveland for my comments on Denney.

105.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Nate Cornejo		1	0	8.42	2.06	12	11	42	25.2
DET Tigers		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 25	P:R    B:R	-6		-6		-7.7		-7.7

Shoulder inflammation essentially ended Cornejo's season in May and led to July surgery to repair a frayed labrum. While he technically remains on Detroit's roster, his 103:115 career K:BB in 313 IP, combined with the low success rate of pitchers returning from labrum surgery, leaves Cornejo little chance to contribute positively to any fantasy team this season. Unless his control somehow improves, Cornejo may never develop into more than a decent AAAA pitcher.

106.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Jason Davis		2	0	5.51	1.74	72	51	148	114.1
CLE Indians		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 24	P:R    B:R	-6		-4		6.5		6.5

Compiling an awful 6.00 ERA on a 62:45 K:BB in 102 IP with 137 H and 13 HR led to a July demotion for Davis. He unsurprisingly rebounded at AAA Buffalo(IL), registering a 2.89 ERA on a 40:18 K:BB in 56 IP with 54 H and 4 HR. However, while a move to the bullpen upon his return resulted in continued success, Davis only turns 25 in May and deserves another chance in the rotation. Hopefully spring training will convince the Indians to keep their homegrown starter rather than the embarrassingly unimpressive Scott Elarton since at least Davis possesses less downside than the incendiary Elarton. You certainly should consider an endgame gamble on Davis if he continues developing during camp and appears ready to take advantage of another opportunity in the Cleveland rotation.

107.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Denny Bautista		0	0	8.49	1.92	19	13	44	29.2
BAL/KC		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 24	P:R    B:R	-6		-6		-9.2		-9.2

Please refer to our Post-2004 Prospect Review: Kansas City for my comments on Bautista.

108.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Pat Hentgen		2	0	6.95	1.64	33	42	90	80.1
TOR Blue Jays		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 35	P:R    B:R	-7		-6		-9.7		-9.7

The 1996 Cy Young winner unexpectedly retired in July after an abysmal first half. With no scant and a 1.8 HR/9, the relatively young Hentgen won't merit any consideration even if he returns in a decent pitchers' environment. Injuries simply destroyed his effectiveness this decade, rendering him useless to any baseball team.

109.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Jeremi Gonzalez		0	0	6.97	1.83	22	20	72	50.1
TB Devil Rays		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 29	P:R    B:R	-7		-6		-6.2		-6.2

Although his 3.99 ERA on a 43:19 K:BB in 56.1 IP over 8 GS(18G) for AAA Durham(IL) suggested Gonzalez could remain effective in some role, bouncing between the rotation and bullpen while shifting between the Rays and Bulls resulted in an unsurprising inconsistent performance from the journeyman. I certainly didn't expect him to sign with Boston due to Gonzalez's historically poor control, but even on the Red Sox, nothing here suggests that he'll post respectable numbers barring a permanent shift to the bullpen, a development that seems somewhat unlikely following his resurgence with Tampa.

110.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Paul Abbott		3	0	6.47	1.71	46	58	106	96
TB/PHI		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 37	P:R    B:R	-7		-6		-5.9		-5.9

Equally poor performance with the Rays and Phillies could push Abbott out of baseball permanently. His combined 100:104 K:BB in 170 IP over the past three season gives no indication of any upside, rendering him effectively useless to all fantasy teams.

111.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Chris George		1	0	7.23	2.01	15	25	60	42.1
KC Royals		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 25	P:L    B:L	-7		-6		-6.6		-6.6

George's 8-6 record and 3.42 ERA for AAA Omaha(PCL) concerns me considering he only managed a 74:40 K:BB in 105.3 IP with 97 H and 7 HR. A .87 G-F leaves him with significant downside given his otherwise atrocious skill set with the Royals. Nothing here indicates that George can pitch effectively in the majors, and unless either a AA demotion or a move to the bullpen results in improved skills, don't expect him to help your fantasy teams any time soon.

112.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Kurt Ainsworth		0	0	9.68	1.92	20	20	39	30.2
BAL Orioles		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 26	P:R    B:R	-7		-7		-14		-14

We never saw this disaster coming and kept expecting a rebound right until June arthroscopic elbow surgery ended his season. Considering that Ainsworth's May demotion also ruined a pending deal that would have netted us Ben Sheets, we also may never forgive him despite the injury. Now, while I still expect Ainsworth eventually will emerge as a useful big league pitcher, his inconsistent control and limited immediate upside on the Orioles probably make him too much of a gamble to own in any league. Wait to see how he recovers before considering him anywhere.

113.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Travis Blackley		1	0	10.04	2.19	16	22	35	26
SEA Mariners		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 21	P:L    B:L	-7		-7		-13		-13

Please refer to our Post-2004 Prospect Review: Seattle for my comments on Blackley.

'05 NL Starting Pitcher Week begins tomorrow.

Today's Fantasy Rx: On a poor day for anyone looking for 2005 pitching targets, Kyle Denney might rank as the safest choice if he somehow wins a rotation job from Scott Elarton. Kurt Ainsworth certainly could rebound when finally healthy, yet his questionable control makes him risky; Travis Blackley similarly struggled last season and will need to impress quickly to receive much consideration for either MLB or fantasy teams this year. Perhaps Denny Bautista is the only pitched discussed today with respectable short-term potential and significant long-term upside, although even spending more than a late-round flyer on the Royals' starter seems a definite gamble given his inconsistency last summer and a likely need for no less than a couple more months in the minors.