Today's Fantasy Rx

National League First Basemen with Double-digit Positive Draft Value

Quick Key to the tables:
AB = At-bats.  H = Hits.  BA = Batting Average.  HR= Home Runs.
RBI = Runs Batted In.  SB = Stolen Bases.  R = Runs.  B = Bats.  T = Throws.
Pos = Position qualification based on 20 appearances or max. # of games in 2004.
Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2004.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
RAR = Runs Above Replacement; Adjusted RAR = RAR modified to
consider a player's 2004 defensive rating in Scoresheet fantasy baseball.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season.

1.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Albert Pujols		592	196	.331	46	123	5	133	1
STL Cardinals		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 24	B:R    T:R	39		38		82.6		84

Despite prevailing health concerns regarding a recent recurrence of plantar fasciitis, Pujols should remain an All-Star masher for another year; hopefully post-season surgery in the fall will fix this problem permanently. The scariest aspect of Pujols' success is that he just turned 25 last week and owns skill trends headed primarily in the right direction. Both his walk and contact rates improved for the third straight season, respectively reaching marks of .14 and .91. While another drop from 3.68 #P/PA to a 3.61 mark might concern me, I suspect Pujols simply drives the first pitch he likes while still waiting for a walk when appropriate. With otherwise career-best skill ratios, including a 1.02 G-F, a .360/50/140 season now looks likely within the next few years. Pujols even remains a decent bet to approach .400 someday, cementing his $40 value and first-round status in any league.

2.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Todd Helton		547	190	.347	32	96	3	115	1
COL Rockies		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 31	B:L    T:L	35		35		91.9		103.7

Slight erosion in his contact rate mildly concerns me, but Helton also posted career-best marks of a .23 walk rate and .80 G-F. He owns the skills necessary to hit .375 with 50 home runs in any year. While the influx of rookies might limit his short-term value, the relatively strong skills of Garrett Atkins and Clint Barmes could translate into a welcome OBP improvement throughout the Rockies' lineup, leading both to more at-bats and more opportunities for quantitative improvement. Helton remains a solid buy anywhere below $40, as well as a dominant force in most sim leagues.

3.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Sean Casey		571	185	.324	24	99	2	101	1
CIN Reds		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 30	B:L    T:R	28		28		40.7		47.9

Calf problems cost Casey a few weeks at the beginning of summer, but he otherwise remained healthy, almost exactly matching his career-year stats from 1999. If he either adjusts to the GAB or maintains his first-half .352/.402/.606 performance for a full season, he still could push a $40 value someday. Of course, he remains an injury risk, and his career-worst 3.22 #P/PA worries me, but he also managed a career-best 1.33 G-F, a welcome drop from three seasons over a 1.60 mark. Only a loss of playing time for any reason should keep him from finally reaching the .300/30/100 benchmark line for fantasy first baseman.

4.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Derrek Lee		605	168	.278	32	98	12	90	1
CH Cubs		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 29	B:R    T:R	24		23		22.4		39

Batting 66 additional times over his 2003 AB total somehow only translated into a moderate quantitative increase while the expected drop Lee's walks and steals cut his overall value. Of course, if Dusty Baker simply finds a single spot in the lineup for Lee rather than jerking him between the #2, 5, and 6 slots, his production could skyrocket. The slugging first baseman appears extremely well-suited to Wrigley Field, and potentially hitting behind Nomar, Sosa, and Aramis Ramirez will provide many RBI opportunities. Pushing to $30 isn't a bad idea, especially considering his two-year contact rate increase from .72 to .76 and now a .79 mark leaves Lee primed for a BA spike.

5.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Shea Hillenbrand		562	174	.310	15	80	2	68	1
ARI Diamondbacks		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 29	B:R    T:R	21		20		14.3		10.3

Toronto's acquisition of Shea Hillenbrand makes little sense considering Eric Crozier appears capable of producing similar numbers at a fraction of the cost. However, Hillenbrand will start for the Jays, likely hitting 5th behind Vernon Wells and Corey Koskie. SkyDome also treats right-handers very much like the BOB, and with a career-best .91 contact rate, Hillenbrand easily should hold his .300 average while boosting his RBI total towards 100. I don't recommend exceeding $20 based on his unimpressive skill set, but he at least looks like a decent fit at corner for most teams.

6.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Lyle Overbay		579	174	.301	16	87	2	83	1
MIL Brewers		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 27	B:L    T:L	19		20		29.3		34.8

Netting Overbay for Richie Sexson single-handedly won that trade for the Brewers; adding another five players for two throw-ins provided incredible stability for the franchise, especially if Chris Capuano and Jorge de la Rosa develop into solid starts as I expect. Unfortunately, Overbay appears one of the most likely players to receive a mid-season change-of-address this year considering Prince Fielder played well at AA Huntsville and should conquer AAA this season. Overbay looks like a great fit for several teams, and if he approaches another .344/.407/.555 performance before the break, Milwaukee will move him before his trade value drops. Given his age and unimpressive ground-fly rate, he just doesn't like a star despite an impressive .14 walk rate. Exceeding $20 in bidding or targeting Overbay in keeper leagues looks like a mistake.

7.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Phil Nevin		547	158	.289	26	105	0	78	1
SD Padres		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 33	B:R    T:R	19		19		23.9		23.9

At least Nevin rewarded the Padres with a solid performance following two down years. He somehow overcame the effects of Petco to reemerge as a key to the San Diego lineup, however his final stats camouflage a mediocre .273/.337/.451 line against right-handers. If this platoon split grows in coming years, Nevin's value could decline very quickly. Despite his potential to return to the .300/30/100 level, don't gamble much above $15 here unless absolutely desperate for power.

8.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Jim Thome		508	139	.274	42	105	0	97	1
PHI Phillies		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 34	B:L    T:R	19		19		45.2		45.2

The aging Thome at least still owns strong skills, plays in a great hitters' park, and bats in one of the most impressive lineups in the game. While he never will bounce back to a .300 average barring an unexpected solution to his problems against southpaws, disciplined power hitters often maintain significant quantitative contributions despite dropping batting averages. Unfortunately, drafting Thome is very difficult due to the $30+ bids his 40/100 production often attracts, so you probably should ignore him in the spring before hoping to snag him in a mid-season deal.

9.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
J.T. Snow		346	113	.327	12	60	4	62	1
SF Giants		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 36	B:L    T:L	17		17		33.8		35

Snow somehow managed the best performance of his career despite missing time with injuries. His move into a relative platoon with Pedro Feliz provided a welcome BA boost, and fixing his career-worst 1.30 G-F over the last two years translated into a power surge that manifested mostly in an increase in his doubles. Don't expect Snow, who turns 37 in February, to repeat his most production season since 2000 even with his newfound plate discipline and power potential. I somewhat suspect any second-half slump even will lea to his departure from San Francisco and the installation of Feliz at first. However, considering Snow's offensive potential and increasingly limited downside, nabbing him anywhere in single-digits looks like a safe gamble.

10.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Brad Wilkerson		572	146	.255	32	67	13	112	1O
MON Expos		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 27	B:L    T:L	16		18		23.3		21.3

One of the most underrated players in the game belongs in center field for Washington, opening at least semi-regular playing time for Nick Johnson, Jose Guillen, Terrmel Sledge, and Ryan Church. Unfortunately, Wilkerson instead appears stuck in left field, and even a career-best .73 contact rate may not provide much of a boost considering the potential downside of playing at RFK Stadium. Conversely, Wilkerson also appears positioned for a further power surge after his ground-fly dropped from 1.16 G-F to a .65 mark. While he jumped from 19 to 32 homers over the last year, I see no reason he can't approach 40 dingers considering his impressively developed patience. Any BA spike could drive his value towards $30, and while I can't recommend exceeding $25 at this time, Wilkerson possesses the skills to emerge as a perennial All-Star in the near future.

11.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Jeff Bagwell		572	152	.266	27	89	6	104	1
HOU Astros		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 36	B:R    T:R	15		17		17.2		13.3

Bagwell turns 37 in May and just missed his best chance of winning a Series. While losing Jeff Kent and Carlos Beltran at least opens lineup slots for the deserving Chris Burke and Jason Lane, the youngsters won't replace the lost production. Slowly declining skills, including terrible performances against southpaws and on the road, similarly concern me here, although I expect at least a mild rebound of both splits given the skills of this future Hall of Famer. Even just repeating his 2004 numbers for two more years will leave Bagwell with 500 homers, however he no longer deserves to hit third for Houston and won't reach .300 again. Bidding over $20 gives you almost no chance of earning a profit on Bagwell.

12.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Shawn Green		590	157	.266	28	86	5	92	1O
LA Dodgers		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 31	B:L    T:L	15		16		10.3		4.7

Good health and a contract extension in a hitter-friendly home park make Green a strong candidate for a rebound towards his previous seasons of excellence. Moving to Arizona even might compensate for his career-worst 1.92 G-F. Of course, while I believe Green can build on his .281/.371/.529 second-half performance, he still struggles against left-handers and played better at home than on the road. Expecting more than a relative improvement into the $20-25 range is a mistake, and considering all the publicity Green and the Snakes received this winter, he should cost more than that price in many leagues.

13.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Jeff Conine		521	146	.280	14	83	5	55	1O
FLO Marlins		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 38	B:R    T:R	14		14		2.9		0.2

The potential signing of Carlos Delgado in Florida would push Conine into sharing an outfield position with Juan Encarnacion. Since neither veteran owns good skills, any decline from Conine, who turns 39 in July, could result in a permanent loss of his starting job. While the original Mr. Marlin still accumulate 500 at-bats if Delgado heads to New York, his declining contact rate limits the upside of a dropping ground-fly rate, rendering Conine extremely unlikely even to match his 2004 performance. I see little reason to bid above single digits here.

14.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Craig Wilson		561	148	.264	29	82	2	97	1O
PIT Pirates		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 27	B:R    T:R	13		15		10.8		7.8

Although Wilson finally won a starting job and boosted his quantitative contribution as expected, a contact rate drop and career-worst 1.31 G-F kept from reaching the 30/100 level. He even appeared towards MVP contention with a .355/.433/.656 line at the end of May. Unfortunately, his production plummeted as summer started, leaving Wilson with a batting average below .180 both in June and September. While the Pirates will give him another chance this year, his rising salary and a developing group of upper-level outfield prospects should push Wilson out of the organization relatively soon, making him a gamble at much over $15, especially in keeper leagues.

15.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Julio Franco		320	99	.309	6	57	4	37	1
ATL Braves		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 46	B:R    T:R	13		11		10.8		12.9

The ageless wonder somehow posted his ninth .300 season despite turns 36 in August. One of the oldest players ever to contribute this level of production, Franco still owns good plate discipline and contact abilities. While he possesses little power and will continue to lose playing time to the developing Adam LaRoche, the veteran remains a lock to post an above-average BA, insuring he'll maintain positive value indefinitely. Considering Franco shouldn't run you more than an endgame flyer in most leagues given his obviously limited upside, selecting him isn't a terrible idea if you need a cornerman or utility player who at least won't hurt you, thus allowing to conserve your resources to secure better talent at scarcer positions.

'04 First Basemen Week continues tomorrow, featuring National Leaguers with single-digit PDV.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Owners willing to spend $40 at first should purchase Pujols or Helton, owners with $30 allocated here need to target Casey or Derrek Lee, and unless you grab or Green under $25 and slot them at first, everyone else needs to wait until the articles over the next two days to find first baseman worth targeting that should match or exceed their draft value.