Today's Fantasy Rx

American League First Basemen without Positive Draft Value

Quick Key to the tables:
AB = At-bats.  H = Hits.  BA = Batting Average.  HR= Home Runs.
RBI = Runs Batted In.  SB = Stolen Bases.  R = Runs.  B = Bats.  T = Throws.
Pos = Position qualification based on 20 appearances or max. # of games in 2004.
Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2004.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
RAR = Runs Above Replacement; Adjusted RAR = RAR modified to
consider a player's 2004 defensive rating in Scoresheet fantasy baseball.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season.

24.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Doug Mientkiewicz		391	93	.238	6	35	2	47	1
MIN/BOS		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 30	B:L    T:R	0		1		-6.8		-0.3

Minnesota largely finished divesting themselves of the Consonant Crew by dumping Mientkiewicz for Just Jones. While the Cubs provided Mientkiewicz with a World Series ring and the accompanying souvenir ball from the final out of the Series, Mientkiewicz added nothing to Boston other than respectable defense. He sputtered to a .215/.286/.318 performance with the Red Sox, and with no split signifying any immediate upside, he shouldn't return to double-digit value any time soon. Nothing here suggests he even possesses the skills necessary to approach .300 again, so even if the Red Sox deal him to a team like the Mets as expected, Mientkiewicz won't merit more than endgame consideration for a corner slot.

25.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Casey Kotchman		116	26	.224	0	15	3	7	1
ANA Angels		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 21	B:L    T:L	-1		-1		-6		-6

Please refer to our Post-2004 Prospect Review: Anaheim for my comments on Kotchman.

26.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Dave Hansen		106	26	.245	2	12	0	15	1
SEA/SD		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 35	B:L    T:R	-1		0		0.4		0.4

Hansen somehow slumped to a .143/.226/.143 performance in 28 AB after the Mariners traded him to the Padres in a deadline deal for Jon Huber. However, the veteran pinch-hitter still owns excellent plate discipline, albeit without any notable power potential whatsoever. Expect Hansen to break camp in the majors despite his late-season struggles, although due to his very limited upside, don't employ him as more than occasional roster filler.

27.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Adrian Gonzalez		42	10	.238	1	7	0	7	1
TEX Rangers		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 22	B:L    T:L	-1		-1		-1		-1

Please refer to our Post-2004 Prospect Review: Texas for my comments on Gonzalez.

28.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Brian Daubach		75	17	.227	2	8	0	9	1
BOS Red Sox		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 32	B:L    T:R	-1		-1		0.2		-0.6

Considering his solid .271/.400/.527 performance with 21 HR, 81 RBI, and a 71:93 BB:K in 336 AB for AAA Pawtucket(IL), Daubach still merits annual looks in the majors. He still at least seems a good bet to hold a respectable OBP in consistent playing time, however a third-straight decline in his OPS makes him too risky to deserve much roto consideration. Don't roster Daubach unless he begins producing in a regular role.

29.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Eduardo Perez		38	8	.211	1	7	0	2	1
TB Devil Rays		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 35	B:R    T:R	-1		-2		-1.3		-1.3

At least his two-year deal with Tampa should keep Perez employed this year. His season ended in May when he tore his left Achillies, although his poor performance prior to his injury left him little overall value. If While Perez might deserve some consideration, especially in sim leagues, if he resumes bashing southpaw pitching this summer, I don't expect Perez ever to contribute more than a couple bucks of fantasy value in the future.

30.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Jason Giambi		264	55	.208	12	40	0	33	1D
NY Yankees		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 33	B:L    T:R	-1		0		-2.5		-4.9

I have less faith in projecting Giambi's 2005 stats than any other player in the game. He still owns the skills necessary to contend for another MVP, however deterioration of both his patience and power potential obviously reduces his upside. The biggest question here involves his health since we can attribute most of his struggles to the deleterious effects of an intestinal parasite and benign tumor. Lost in the multitude of rumors surrounding the slugger is that he owned a .270/.406/.540 line before an ankle sprain forced him to the DL in May. A bizarre reverse platoon split also suggests he could approach his former level of excellence in healthy. Considering his utter dominance of pitching over the previous several seasons, I expect him at least to hold a .250 average and .900 OPS, especially if New York protects him at DH. Bid to the high teens in standard leagues, and don't give up on Giambi if you benefit from his normally outstanding OBP in settings with a stronger sabermetric base

31.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Andy Dominique		11	2	.182	0	1	0	0	1
BOS Red Sox		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 28	B:R    T:R	-2		-2		-1.1		-1.1

Please refer to our Post-2004 Prospect Review: Boston for my comments on Dominique.

32.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Travis Lee		19	2	.105	0	2	0	1	1
NY Yankees		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 29	B:L    T:L	-2		-3		-2.4		-2.4

A torn labrum ended Lee's season after a terrible April. Lee now looks likely to receive no more than an NRI, and considering he turns 30 in May, he needs a strong rebound to continue earning consideration as a starter. Unfortunately, right now Lee merits no more than an endgame flyer even if he breaks camp with a good likelihood of seeing regular playing time.

33.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Eric Karros		103	20	.194	2	11	1	8	1
OAK Athletics		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 36	B:R    T:R	-2		-2		-5.8		-6.5

A simply awful performance by Karros in his first year outside the NL resulted in his release at the trade deadline. He now appears headed to the booth after some previous moonlighting as a playoff commentator. Of course, while he still owns marginally decent skills, you almost certainly should avoid Karros if he returns to the majors given his limited fantasy potential and significant BA downside.

34.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Jose Leon		66	12	.182	2	8	0	4	1
BAL Orioles		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 27	B:R    T:R	-2		-3		-4.9		-4.9

Heading to Pittsburgh on a minor league deal gives Leon an excellent chance to break camp as a big league reserve. He excelled at AAA Ottawa(IL) last year, compiling a .322/.382/.590 with 17 HR, 55 RBI, and a 24:68 BB:K in 283 AB. The problem is that his 8:57 BB:K in 209 at-bats over the last three years for Baltimore doesn't suggest any real possibility of producing in the majors. Don't risk rostering Leon anywhere until you see him registering respectable numbers over several weeks of playing time.

'04 First Basemen Week continues tomorrow, featuring Minor League Free Agent and AAA/AA First Basemen in the American League.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Kotchman and Gonzalez merit the most attention here, especially in keeper leagues, however both youngsters appear unlikely to open the year in the majors, forget about earning everyday jobs. Jason Giambi probably possesses the best chance to exceed expectations given the horrible press coverage of him over the last year. Rostering him anywhere under $20 should provide a useful quantitative base for your team while giving you the potential for a significant bargain.